Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

Which stocks rose to the top and which fell behind in the third quarter? In the quarter, the S&P 500 gained 2%, following a rise of 15% in 2Q and a loss of 4% in 1Q. But the strongest gains were concentrated within only a few sectors: Energy, Healthcare, and Information Technology. In fact, a majority of sectors were negative in the quarter. The laggards included Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financial, Industrial, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities. In the Argus Universe Coverage (more than 500 public companies), and looking at both BUY-rated and HOLD-rated companies, the average stock performance in the third quarter was a loss of 2% and the median change was a loss of 5%. The 10 top-performing BUY-rated stocks rose 71% on average. The following is a list of those top performers (noting that only four sectors are represented.) and also includes the bottom-five performers.

Super Micro Computer, together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architectures. The company serves markets worldwide. Super Micro Computer provides modular blades and blade servers, workstations, full racks, networking devices, GPU computers for training large language models, server software management solutions, and a wide range of related products and components. Super Micro was incorporated in 1993 and is based in San Jose, California.

Stocks weathered another inflation report on Wednesday, as investors gobbled up certain AI names that recently have been smacked. Some of the stocks that ripped Wednesday are very well known among the momentum crowd, as NBIS rocketed 34%, LITE 14%, BE 12%, CIEN 11%, DELL 10%, HPE and COHR 8%, STX 7%, and TER, SNDK, and FORM 6%. Despite the massive ongoing dispersion among individual stocks and the constant worries about geopolitics, energy prices, inflation, future FOMC action, the entire yield curve lifting, etc., the overall market has been eerily quiet over the past six days. Since the July 29 hedge fund blowup, when the Volatility Index (VIX) shot up 13.5% to about 21, the so-called options fear gauge has declined in eight of the past 10 days. The VIX fell almost 5% yesterday to 14.6%, its lowest close since late 2025. The VIX measures the implied volatility of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500. Its aim is to measure the expected 30-day volatility of the SPX. Going back to 2021, the VIX has averaged about 19. The index generally has been between 12 to 25, with some spikes in 2022, 2023, April 2025, and March 2026. It stayed elevated for months only during the 2022 bear market. The weekly Bollinger Band width is near the lowest level going back to 2021. A low VIX generally occurs during a period when the S&P 500 is crawling higher -- and can stay depressed for months, if not longer. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) has dropped from 31 on July 29 to 21 -- but remains above the lows from 2024 (between 15 and 16).

The 2Q reporting season is in full swing. Many companies have knocked it out of the park, delivering earnings and revenue numbers that were well over expectations. Meanwhile, we have been looking at the early trends and, as usual, there are companies increasing guidance. Raising guidance is one of our Investing Themes for the second half of 2026. We view management's ability to raise guidance consistently as a catalyst for possible market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. It's even harder for companies to lift guidance during uncertain economic times, as vision is murky. This is especially true now, as the war in the Middle East drags on. Wall Street is also pondering a new Federal Reserve chairman, one with a different view about forward-looking guidance (or in this case, a lack thereof). A good number of companies already have increased guidance in this earnings cycle, so we are putting out a first round of companies that are in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage and that made the grade.