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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
3
Weeks
6
Days
18
Hours
10
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.368
3.50 - 3.75
70.1%
3.75 - 4.00
29.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 70.1% | 63.5% | 64.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 29.9% | 36.5% | 35.4% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 16, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.240
3.50 - 3.75
36.1%
3.75 - 4.00
49.4%
4.00 - 4.25
14.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 36.1% | 30.0% | 34.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 14.5% | 19.3% | 16.6% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 28, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.170
3.50 - 3.75
26.2%
3.75 - 4.00
45.7%
4.00 - 4.25
24.1%
4.25 - 4.50
4.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 26.2% | 22.4% | 25.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 45.7% | 45.5% | 45.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 24.1% | 27.2% | 24.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 09, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.040
3.50 - 3.75
15.7%
3.75 - 4.00
37.9%
4.00 - 4.25
32.8%
4.25 - 4.50
12.0%
4.50 - 4.75
1.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 15.7% | 13.9% | 16.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 37.9% | 36.7% | 38.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 32.8% | 34.2% | 32.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 12.0% | 13.4% | 11.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 27, 2027 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.005
3.50 - 3.75
13.8%
3.75 - 4.00
35.2%
4.00 - 4.25
33.4%
4.25 - 4.50
14.5%
4.50 - 4.75
2.8%
4.75 - 5.00
0.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 13.8% | 12.2% | 15.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 35.2% | 34.0% | 37.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 33.4% | 34.5% | 32.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 14.5% | 15.9% | 12.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 17, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.960
3.50 - 3.75
11.4%
3.75 - 4.00
31.4%
4.00 - 4.25
33.7%
4.25 - 4.50
17.9%
4.50 - 4.75
4.9%
4.75 - 5.00
0.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 31.4% | 30.1% | 32.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 33.7% | 34.4% | 33.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 17.9% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 28, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.935
3.50 - 3.75
11.1%
3.75 - 4.00
31.0%
4.00 - 4.25
33.7%
4.25 - 4.50
18.2%
4.50 - 4.75
5.2%
4.75 - 5.00
0.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | — | — | 0.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 11.1% | 10.0% | 13.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 31.0% | 30.1% | 33.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 33.7% | 34.4% | 32.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 18.2% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 09, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.940
3.25 - 3.50
0.6%
3.50 - 3.75
12.2%
3.75 - 4.00
31.1%
4.00 - 4.25
32.8%
4.25 - 4.50
17.5%
4.50 - 4.75
5.0%
4.75 - 5.00
0.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | — | — | 0.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 12.2% | 12.1% | 15.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 31.1% | 30.5% | 32.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 32.8% | 32.8% | 30.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 14.6% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 28, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.950
3.00 - 3.25
0.1%
3.25 - 3.50
2.8%
3.50 - 3.75
15.7%
3.75 - 4.00
31.4%
4.00 - 4.25
30.0%
4.25 - 4.50
15.2%
4.50 - 4.75
4.2%
4.75 - 5.00
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 15.7% | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 31.4% | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 30.0% | 30.8% | 30.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 15.2% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 15, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.005
3.00 - 3.25
0.5%
3.25 - 3.50
4.5%
3.50 - 3.75
17.9%
3.75 - 4.00
31.2%
4.00 - 4.25
28.0%
4.25 - 4.50
13.7%
4.50 - 4.75
3.7%
4.75 - 5.00
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 17.9% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 31.2% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 28.0% | 26.4% | 26.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 27, 2027 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.030
3.00 - 3.25
1.1%
3.25 - 3.50
6.4%
3.50 - 3.75
19.8%
3.75 - 4.00
30.8%
4.00 - 4.25
25.9%
4.25 - 4.50
12.3%
4.50 - 4.75
3.2%
4.75 - 5.00
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50 | — | — | — |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 19.8% | 21.1% | 21.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 30.8% | 30.2% | 31.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 25.9% | 24.4% | 24.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 08, 2027 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.080
2.75 - 3.00
0.2%
3.00 - 3.25
1.5%
3.25 - 3.50
7.5%
3.50 - 3.75
20.7%
3.75 - 4.00
30.4%
4.00 - 4.25
24.8%
4.25 - 4.50
11.5%
4.50 - 4.75
3.0%
4.75 - 5.00
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 20.7% | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 30.4% | 29.7% | 31.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 24.8% | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Jul 01, 2026 07:25PM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
BofA explains the basics of Fed watching
By Investing.com - Jun 20, 2026
Investing.com-- BofA Securities published a primer on June 14 that laid out the fundamentals of "Fed watching," covering the central bank’s mandate, voting structure, communication tools and balance...
Bitcoin falls below $63k as hawkish Fed rattles speculative assets like crypto
By Investing.com - Jun 18, 2026
Investing.com -- Bitcoin slipped on Thursday, reversing a bulk of recent gains after hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve saw markets ratchet up expectations for an interest rate hike this...
S&P rises 1%, Nasdaq gains nearly 2% as U.S.-Iran peace deal boosts sentiment
By Investing.com - Jun 18, 2026
121
Investing.com -- Wall Street largely soared on Thursday, as risk sentiment was boosted after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace accord to end military operations on all fronts and immediately...
Analysis
GDPNow Revision Points to Softer Real Final Sales Beneath Headline GDP
By Mike (Mish) Shedlock - Jul 01, 2026
The plunge happened between June 24 and June 26, but the Atlanta Fed just posted results today. Nowcast Plunge June 24: 3.1 percent June 25: 2.5 percent June 26: 1.2 percent Email Exchange With Pat...
US Manufacturing PMI Shows Growth Is Holding, but Inflation Pressure Is Not
By Mike (Mish) Shedlock - Jul 01, 2026
Price growth moderated but have input prices have rapidly increased for 21 months. ISM table and related comments by permission of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Please consider the June...
Warsh Is Taking the Fed Out of the Guidance Business
By Stephen Innes - Jul 01, 2026
The immediate policy question remains unresolved. Headline inflation has eased from the shock of the Iran conflict and the surge in fuel prices, but core inflation remains well above target. The...
