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Don Dawson is an independent commodity futures and spread trader with 38-plus years of experience. He has authored hundreds of articles on commodity markets and trading education. He had previously taught futures classes at an international trading school for 15 years, during which he received multiple awards. In addition, Don is a weekly columnist and Futures Market Analyst for Barchart.
August just flipped the commodity script. Grains rallied HARD into harvest (not the usual drop):Corn → multi-year highsWheat → 3-year highs on Black Sea chaos. Meanwhile, diesel exploded to $5.45–$5.65/gal...
What happens when seasonality, inflation, crude oil, and interest rates all begin pointing toward the same trade?The euro is approaching a 75-day seasonal sell window—and the fundamental backdrop may...
Live cattle futures have weakened, but this is not a story of expanding cattle supplies. Larger near-term feedlot inventories are pressuring prices, while fewer placements and a smaller calf crop point...
Gold just woke up, and a complacent market may be caught off guard.A 7-week breakout, a supportive seasonal window, and cooling rate-hike expectations point to an opportunity. But first, bulls must clear...
Weather headlines and geopolitical tensions grab attention, but wheat keeps struggling to hold its rallies. Producers are selling into strength, seasonal trends favor weakness, and the technical picture...
Everyone sees the same soybean chart. Few will trade it the same way. Bulls see breakout fuel. Bears see harvest risk. When conviction cracks, opportunity appears. A 93% seasonal tendency, strong technicals,...
Is the next high-probability trade setting up in October Lean Hogs? From July 22–August 3, October hog futures have finished lower in 14 of the past 15 years (93%). Softening summer demand, expanding...
Don't argue with the market. Everything about wheat's fundamentals says prices should be stronger... yet the trend has been down since May.Is the market wrong—or is it quietly signaling another leg...
Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up?We break down the...
The AUD seasonal setup into the June futures expiry is one of the cleanest in months. EOFY repatriation and hedging flows are hitting as Aussie firms square books ahead of June 30, while winter wheat and...
