Managing Temporary Staff

Many of you know that #office #CRE holds a special place in my ❤️. The true arbiter of office demand is the labor market. In both 2023 (-217,000) and 2024 (-38,000), the national office labor market lost jobs, and it is very likely that office job growth will be revised lower (or losses more negative), as the preliminary benchmark revisions suggest. In 2025 YTD, only 14,000 office jobs have been added, but this has oscillated month-to-month. Without temp employment, office-using jobs have performed better (but still would have had other challenges -- I will post about tech soon.) One key aspect of the decline in office jobs nationally has been the change in temporary help services (often viewed as a "canary"): 💡 In 2022, about 100,000 temp jobs were lost. 💡 In 2023, 286,000 temp jobs were lost. 💡 In 2024, 159,000 temp jobs were lost. 💡 YTD 2025, 53,000 temp jobs have been lost. 💡 In Dec 2019, there were 2.9 million such workers, which peaked at 3.18 million in Mar 2022 and is now at 2.5 million. 💡 This is a stunning 21% (-677,000) decline in the last 3.5 years. 💡 The cities most impacted by these declines have been: Louisville, Memphis, Kansas City, Silicon Valley, Detroit, Greenville, San Antonio, Cincinnati, Sacramento, Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City and Portland. All of these markets had at least 10,000 temp workers and have recorded 20%+ declines since 2022. 📢 However, not ALL temp jobs are done in office buildings despite being part of NAICS 56. About 42% are manufacturing, warehousing or transport jobs (this was 50% in 2019). About 10% are healthcare (this was 5% in 2019). In fact, "office" workers are only about ~28% of temp workers (then and now). What does this tell us? ➡️ Weakness in the industrial economy started in 2022, and we had forecasted a soft CRE market for some time, which was (very) accurate and materialized in late 2022 to today. ("Soft" means absorption levels well below historical norms. Vacancy came into this period wildly low.) ➡️ While employment tied to the industrial sector (like manufacturing, transportation and warehousing) grew by 763,000 in 2022, the "office" temp job market was telling us loud and clear that softness was creeping in. ➡️ In 2023 and 2024, industrial sector jobs grew by 55,000 and 80,000 while still the "office" temp job market told us something else. ➡️ Hours have also pulled back as firms lean on the levers of temp workers and fewer hours to navigate a tougher economic backdrop. ➡️ This started in 2022, before the ratcheting up in trade tensions. Trade tensions today only add a new layer to what is a segment of the economy that had gone through quite a hangover after a COVID high. ➡️ A part of the temp pullback has been affecting the office-using labor market. Temp workers are TEMP, but also may work remotely more frequently than their non-temp colleagues (some research suggests this), so it's not one-to-one for office demand.

Some economy watchers follow employment in "temporary help services" as an indicator of where the labor market is going. Yet this metric is often misunderstood. A common perception of temporary employment is that's it's a "last in, first out" source of labor. In other words, businesses bring in temps when they need extra workers at the margin, and they let them go as soon as demand drops. There's some truth to this, but it's not the whole story. As with any kind of labor, temporary work has both supply and demand. When the labor market is extremely tight, the supply of temporary work can fall. This is because workers who might otherwise do temporary work have found full-time jobs. In this situation, the actual quantity of temporary employment can fall, but its price – the wage – will rise. By contrast, when the demand for temporary work dips, both the quantity *and* the price can fall. So there's an easy way to see whether a decline in temporary employment reflects economic weakness: look at the price. Temporary work was in high demand during the pandemic, and average earnings rose steeply relative to earnings across the private sector as a whole (see chart). But the ratio in the chart dropped steadily starting in 2022. The small uptick at the end of last year probably had to do with the resolution of uncertainty and expectations for pro-business policies. If the labor market weakens, we may actually see what happened in 2009: a decrease in the price of temporary work with a spike in the quantity of temporary employment. This happened because so many workers lost their full-time jobs that the supply of temporary labor surged. So what's happening right now? Unfortunately, the data for February won't be released for several weeks. Until then, the best signals will probably come from the temp labor providers themselves. #labormarket #economy #temps

Deputy's 2025 Big Shift report explores how the next generation of workers is transforming the world of hourly work. Based on millions of real-world shift data points, the research uncovers key trends shaping the future of work — from flexible scheduling to the rise of AI. Here are the top insights: Rise of Micro-Shifts: Short, flexible shifts (six hours or less) are gaining popularity, especially in hospitality and service industries, accommodating workers like students and caregivers seeking balance. Gen Z's Influence: As the largest segment of the hourly workforce, Gen Z is driving demand for flexible scheduling and work-life integration, prompting businesses to adapt to attract and retain talent. AI Integration: Artificial intelligence is enhancing shift work by optimizing scheduling and improving work-life balance, rather than replacing jobs. Poly-Employment Trend: Approximately 20% of shift workers hold multiple jobs, with young women, particularly in hospitality and healthcare, leading this trend to manage cost-of-living pressures. Gender Disparities: Women dominate shift work but often occupy lower-paying service roles. However, there's a growing presence of women in traditionally male-dominated fields like logistics. Generational Shift: Generation Alpha began entering the workforce in 2024 and is projected to surpass Gen Z by 2038, indicating ongoing evolution in workforce demographics. These findings are based on an analysis of over 278 million hours worked across 41 million shifts by more than 429,000 shift workers, conducted in collaboration with labor economist Dr. Shashi Karunanethy.

94% of top performers don't have the 'required' years of experience Steve Jobs. Mark Zuckerberg. Elon Musk had that in common -  they did not have the "years of experience" I have seen so many recruiters and staffing teams use this metric  and its all wrong "Years of Experience" as a hiring metric is: ➡️ A poor predictor of "PERFORMANCE" Fact: A 2019 study found only a 3% correlation between experience and job performance Reality: I've seen 2-year "rookies" outperform 10-year "veterans" countless times ➡️ Stifles INNOVATION • 78% of HR leaders agree: Fresh perspectives drive innovation • Example: Would Netflix have disrupted Blockbuster if they only hired "experienced" video rental experts? ➡️ Particularly flawed in tech • Tech skills have a half-life of about 5 years • A developer with 2 years in cutting-edge AI often trumps one with  10 years in legacy systems ➡️ It discriminates against career changers • 49% of employees will change careers in their lifetime • You're missing out on diverse problem-solving approaches by ignoring transferable skills ➡️ It ignores the QUALITY of the experience • 3 years of high-impact projects > 7 years of routine tasks • I once hired a 3-year product manager who increased ROI by 200% over a 10-year counterpart The Solution: Focus on these instead ✅ Demonstrated skills: Use practical assessments ✅ Learning agility: Look for continuous self-improvement ✅ Adaptability: Ask for examples of quick learning and pivots ✅ Problem-solving ability: Present real scenarios in interviews ✅ Cultural add (not just fit): How will they enhance your culture? Actionable Steps: 1. Rewrite job descriptions: Replace "X years required" with specific competencies 2. Implement blind resume reviews: Test actual abilities, not years accumulated 3. Use skill-based assessments: Focus on achievements, not timelines 4. Conduct project-based interviews: See candidates in action 5. Create diverse interview panels: Reduce bias and get multiple perspectives The result?  You'll build more innovative, adaptable, and high-performing teams. What's been your experience?  Have you seen "inexperienced" hires shine? #Recruitment #Hiring #HiringandPromotion #Startups #Founders RecruitingSniper and Joshua Talreja

The UAE job market right now is… interesting. As someone working closely with both clients and candidates, I’m seeing a shift in behaviour on both sides: - Candidates are more cautious than ever Strong candidates are hesitant to move. Stability is winning over salary hikes. - Clients are taking longer to decide More approvals, tighter budgets, and a stronger focus on “the perfect fit” vs “quick hire.” But the biggest shift I’m seeing is this 👇 🔹 Temporary & Contract staffing is gaining serious momentum In times of uncertainty, businesses are becoming more strategic; it's not about whom they hire, but how they hire. Instead of committing to long-term headcount immediately, many companies are: ✔ Opting for project-based or fixed-term hires ✔ Testing roles before making permanent decisions ✔ Managing budgets more efficiently without compromising on talent And honestly, this shift makes sense. For clients, it offers: 👉 Flexibility 👉 Cost control For candidates, it’s opening up: 👉 Faster entry into strong organizations 👉 Exposure to diverse projects 👉 Opportunities that may convert into permanent roles At Nathan & Nathan, this is exactly where we are seeing increased demand. Because Hiring hasn’t slowed down, it has become smarter. Are you seeing a similar shift in your organization? #Trybeforeyouhire #UAEJobs #Recruitment #Staffing #ContractStaffing #TalentAcquisition #UAEHiring #HRTrends #TemporaryStaffing

Résumés are dead signal. And most companies are still using them to make multi-hundred-thousand-dollar hiring decisions. Many HR functions are facilitating a dysfunctional process and not a critical business enablement function that gives leverage to the business. (Also highly frustrating to job seekers spending hours on resumes, applications, and interviews.) If your recruiting process starts with a résumé review and ends with a generic job description, you’re optimizing for polish—not performance. Here’s what high-growth, high-trust hiring actually looks like: 1. Hire from work, not words. Résumés are marketing copy. Ask: “What did you build that still works without you?” Have them walk you through it. A deck. A dashboard. A system. The best operators speak in outcomes. Everyone else describes process. 2. Prioritize ownership over optics. “Led,” “managed,” “oversaw”—those are spectator words. Ask: “What decision did you make—and what tradeoffs did you weigh?” Use this framework: What was the situation? What was your call? What happened next? You’ll know if they owned it—or just had a front-row seat. 3. Screen for judgment, not perfection. You’re not hiring someone who’s always right. You’re hiring someone who gets smarter with every rep. Ask: “What’s a decision you’d revisit now with new information?” Judgment compounds faster than skills. Look for signal that they’ve updated their playbook. 4. Run performance-based interviews. Would you greenlight a $300K contract based on a résumé and three Zoom calls? Then stop hiring that way. Create a scoped, role-relevant project. Debrief it live. You’re not testing polish—you’re testing how they think under pressure and with context. 5. Stop mistaking pedigree for potential. A Stanford degree or FAANG stint is just context, not signal. Ask: “What did you do that others around you weren’t doing?” Look for stretch, creativity, and earned scope. 10x people don’t always come from the obvious places. 6. Ditch culture fit. Define behavior. “Culture fit” is often a proxy for “feels familiar.” And that’s how you build sameness, not scale. Ask yourself: “What are the behaviors our best people consistently demonstrate?” Interview for those. Not vibes. Not style. 7. Design the org first. Then hire. Too many job descriptions are written after someone quits. That’s backfilling, not architecting. Ask: “What friction does this role unblock? What velocity does it add?” You can’t hire for leverage if you don’t map where you need it. 8. Hire for trajectory—not title. Title is a lagging indicator. Trajectory is a leading one. Ask: “Where were you two years ago—and what’s changed since?” Look for acceleration. People who scale themselves can scale your company. You don’t build a generational company by playing it safe. You build it by designing a hiring system that finds slope, judgment, and ownership—and rewards it.

Integrating manpower planning with analytics and performance to Protect Margins and Strengthen the P&L Effective manpower sourcing is no longer about filling headcount, it’s about architecting a flexible, data driven workforce model that aligns with operational demand and financial performance. Here are five practical levers organizations can use to optimize manpower sourcing: 1. Workforce Mix Strategy - A resilient workforce blends: • Permanent staff for operational stability and institutional knowledge • Contractual resources for scalability and cost control • On-requirement manpower for surge capacity and special projects 2. Productivity-Driven Deployment (vs. Fixed Cadre) - Shift from static headcount planning to analytics-led deployment: • Use past performance data and future trend analysis (week start/end patterns, seasonal cycles, peak/off-peak loads) • Build productivity matrices for core functions such as sorting, packing, and outbound operations • Introduce piece-rate incentives to directly link output with rewards and drive higher efficiency 3. Multi-Skilled, Non-Dedicated Roles For contractual and outsourced cadres, cross-functional role design improves utilization. Combined responsibilities reduce idle time, increase agility, and support lean operations. 4. Cross-Functional Internal Sourcing Leverage manpower across departments and group logistics networks, especially in organizations with multiple warehouses and diverse operations, to balance load and share skilled resources. 5. Expanding Sourcing Channels Move beyond traditional manpower agencies by building alternative pipelines: • Employee referral programs • Partnerships with training institutes • Internship and apprenticeship pathways Cost & Financial Impact From a cost optimization and financial governance perspective, these manpower models directly strengthen the P&L by converting fixed labor costs into a more variable, demand aligned structure. A flexible workforce mix, productivity-linked deployment, and diversified sourcing channels reduce idle capacity, improve output per labor hour, and control cost escalation, a critical factor in logistics operations where manpower is a major expense driver. When manpower planning is integrated with analytics and performance metrics, organizations gain tighter budget control, higher forecast accuracy, and sustainable margin protection. Ultimately, disciplined manpower sourcing is not just an HR initiative; it is a strategic lever for achieving budget targets and enhancing overall financial performance. #WorkforceStrategy #ManpowerPlanning #OperationalExcellence #CostOptimization #BusinessAnalytics #SupplyChainLeadership #PLManagement #Nicholasjinoth

Two years ago, 1 in 5 GCC roles in India was contractual. Today, it is 1 in 4. By FY27, it will be closer to 1 in 3. This is not a cost-cutting move. It is a structural shift in how GCCs are building their workforce. Here is what the data from Quess Corp's Q4 FY26 GCC Trends report tells us: → The Contract-to-Hire (C2H) model now delivers 15–20% better retention compared to direct permanent hires. GCCs are using it as a quality filter, not just a speed lever. → Contract-to-hire deployments onboard 40–50% faster than permanent hiring cycles. In a market where the average time-to-fill for niche tech roles is 90+ days, this matters. → 69% of GCC employers now use flexible staffing. It is no longer a competitive advantage. It is baseline infrastructure. → Gen Z tenure in GCCs has dropped below 24 months, creating a 40% replacement hiring rate. Contractual models absorb this churn more efficiently than permanent headcount planning. The GCC that still treats contractual hiring as a fallback is operating on a FY22 playbook. The ones building deliberate C2H pipelines — with structured conversion milestones and pre-boarding engagement — are winning the retention game before Day 1. What percentage of your GCC's current headcount is contractual? And is that a strategy or a default? Source: Quess Corp GCC Trends Q4 FY2026 #GCC #GlobalCapabilityCentre #TalentStrategy #ContractHiring #C2H #GCCIndia #WorkforceStrategy #TechTalent #HRLeadership #FutureOfWork

Let’s be honest—2025 has been a challenge for staffing firms. Slowed reqs. Client ghosting. Layoffs in tech, logistics, and finance. It’s easy to feel like the world hit pause. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Most companies didn’t stop hiring because they don’t need people. They stopped because they don’t know what’s coming next. ⚠️ That’s not a hiring problem. That’s a planning problem. And guess who’s perfectly positioned to help solve that? You. As a recruiter or staffing firm, your value in 2025 isn’t about “filling seats fast.” It’s about helping businesses make smart, low-risk hiring decisions that align with unpredictable demand. ✅ Build temp-to-perm pipelines. ✅ Offer project-based staffing for uncertain quarters. ✅ Help clients forecast labor needs using trends from your desk. You’re not a vendor. You’re a partner in workforce strategy. The takeaway: Instead of chasing hires, offer alternatives to full-time commitments. Clients don’t want resumes—they want options. And when you become the partner who helps them move forward without fear? You won’t just get the req. You’ll get the relationship.

In a “deep freeze” hiring environment, rigidity becomes a liability. The future of work is about how quickly you can assemble the right talent, and just as quickly adapt when priorities change. Ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy has made it difficult for many companies to plan ahead, leading them to delay hiring permanent employees. By contrast, the US freelance market is booming, with an estimated 64 to 73+ million Americans, roughly 38% of the workforce, freelancing in 2025 to 2026. Regardless of size, structure, or industry, more companies are turning to freelancers as a necessity for agility and flexibility. The question isn’t whether agencies and brands will still hire permanent employees, but whether permanent roles remain the default. As Linda Boff, CEO of Said Differently and former CMO of GE, put it, “the future of work is one that is incredibly fluid, incredibly flexible.” → This model hasn’t truly existed in this form before, at least not at scale. And yet it feels like it has the longest runway.