Global Economic Trends

Amid rising tariffs and shifting geopolitics, the foundations of the rules-based global economy are being redefined. With the US policy shifts, the uncertainty is real. In fact, I just got back from New York, where I met with a number of CEOs – and for the first time, all of them said the same three words: “I don’t know.” It’s clear we’re not going back to “business as usual”. That’s why we felt it was crucial to bring our clients together today to hear from Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong at a closed-door conversation. He’s just been appointed Chairman of the new Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce, and his perspectives were insightful, as he also listened to the concerns and questions our clients brought to the table. Looking ahead, I believe we’re in for more short-term volatility and uncertainty. My advice to clients: lock in good rates, manage your FX exposure, and address any supply chain constraints. Longer term, we need to think about the new world order more strategically. There are four key areas businesses need to focus on: • Supply Chain – Diversify sources and build in resilience • Logistics – Plan for the possibility of longer routes and ensure continuity • Financial and Payments – Prepare for alternatives beyond USD • Technology – Be ready for dual tech ecosystems and interoperability costs The silver lining is that we are in Singapore. While Asia does bear the brunt of tariffs, it is also home to 18 of the 20 fastest-growing trade corridors. Also, even though we have had slowdowns in our neighbourhood, we are still surrounded by big economies – China, India and Indonesia. Over the years, we’ve walked alongside our clients through many turning points, and we’ll keep showing up, especially when things get tough. Whether it’s navigating treasury decisions, managing volatility, or adapting supply chains. Storms may come, but like Singapore, we’ll stay steady – anchored, open, and here for the long haul.

During my time serving in government, I saw firsthand how geopolitics can impact energy production and flows, with cascading impacts on market and macroeconomic trends.   We're already seeing this play out following the last few days in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory action across the region that has disrupted energy production and transit.   The market reaction is changing quickly. Since I recorded this video on Monday, oil and gas prices have jumped further, and equities have shifted toward a risk-off move as investors price in continued escalation. Bonds sold off further, reflecting inflation fears in developed markets. Due to the segmented nature of natural gas markets, the impact of higher prices will hit regions differently, with Europe more exposed than the U.S. to elevated LNG prices.   The central question: will this remain a short-term volatility spike or evolve into a broader supply shock? The duration of the disruption and the severity of transit impacts are the core variables I'm watching.   ⬇️ Watch the full video for my latest take on what this could mean for markets.

Payments have evolved from paper and plastic to APIs and orchestration - giving rise to a new breed of players that simplify the complexity and connect the dots behind the scenes. Here's how we got here. 𝟭. 𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲-𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬𝘀 𝗲𝗿𝗮, banks owned the entire payments value chain -acquiring, processing, settlement. Merchant onboarding was complex, and domestic clearing systems ruled. 𝟮. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗲-𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 in the late 1990s changed everything. Players like PayPal and Authorize made online payments possible, while banks began exiting the acquiring space or partnering with processors to keep up with demand. 𝟯. 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬, specialized gateways and regional wallets began to scale, offering merchants greater flexibility and control. The launch of SEPA in Europe marked a push toward payment harmonization, while non-bank players started building infrastructure that bypassed traditional acquiring models altogether. 𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗣𝗜-𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 transformed payments from siloed systems into modular, developer-friendly tools. Merchant onboarding became faster, integrations simpler, and innovation more scalable. Open Banking regulations enabled direct access to bank data, while new credit models redefined consumer behavior. Payments evolved into a flexible, programmable layer of the digital economy. 𝟱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆, we’re in the age of seamless integration. Payments are embedded in everything - from ride-hailing apps to SuperApps. Real-time rails like SEPA Instant, UPI and PIX are live. CBDCs are in pilot. However, as payment ecosystems grow more fragmented - with new methods, regional schemes, compliance layers, and fraud risks -complexity has become a major bottleneck for merchants, fintechs, and even banks. Integrating multiple providers, maintaining uptime across systems, and ensuring regulatory compliance isn't just costly - it's unsustainable without the right foundation. This is where a new breed of infrastructure players like 𝗔𝗸𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗼 fit in - offering the tools to simplify complexity and still retain control. • 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲-𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗲𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 let banks, PSPs, and fintechs launch their own branded platforms fast - without building from scratch. • 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 enables merchants to route transactions dynamically across multiple acquirers, reducing costs and failed payments while improving UX. • 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 can embed API-driven acquiring services into their offerings without the burden of a full-scale tech overhaul. In a world where growth brings fragmentation, the real challenge isn’t enabling payments - it’s managing them. The advantage will lie with infrastructure that can unify complexity, adapt in real time, and scale across borders without adding friction. Opinions: my own, Graphic source: Akurateco Payment Hub Subscribe to my newsletter: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg

Every few years, something slams the brakes on business-as-usual. Then hits the accelerator. COVID did it. It turned five-year digital roadmaps into five-week survival plans. Then came the supply chain fallout. Every weakness in visibility, data, and flexibility was suddenly front-page news. Those events triggered a tidal wave of tech investment. Automation. Cloud. AI. MES. Data platforms. Progress born out of panic. And that’s the heart of 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐜’𝐬 𝐋𝐚𝐰. Technology moves at an exponential rate. Organizations evolve at a logarithmic one. That gap keeps growing until something big forces a reset. Not because companies want to change, but because they have no choice. The next big disruption is already loading. It might be AI regulation, sustainability mandates, or the collapse of old operating models under the weight of new data expectations. 𝐈𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐝𝐨 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 ���𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐬, 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐦𝐲 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞: Stop building technology roadmaps in a vacuum. Start building organizational readiness. That means investing in leadership alignment, communication cadence, employee training, and data literacy. It means mapping decision-making speed, defining clear ownership of digital initiatives, and stress-testing how fast your teams can pivot when priorities shift. Because when the next shock arrives, your tools won’t save you. Your ability to respond with clarity and confidence will. 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞: https://lnkd.in/eP8bRaK4 ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

Global sales of EVs and hybrid vehicles hit 1.2 million units in February 2025. That's a massive 50% jump compared to last year. But get this: China accounted for nearly 75% of those sales! I've posted before about the pace in China, and it just keeps accelerating. EV sales there are up 76% year-on-year. Brands like BYD, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Zeekr are launching new models at lightning speed, moving from plug-in hybrids to fully electric in record time. In Europe, the race is still on. Volkswagen boosted BEV sales by 180%, BMW overtook Tesla, and Chinese-owned brands reportedly outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time. Meanwhile, Tesla's EU market share hit a five-year low. But what I still can't get over is the insane pace in China! I recently drove a Xiaomi EV in Shanghai that felt like a one-to-one copy of the Porsche Taycan for $40,000. Incredible materials, smooth drive, and great steering. Even my engineer, who was with me, was impressed. And this is just four years after Xiaomi said, "Let's make cars." Now, they're producing 100,000 a year. Also extremely interesting is that 20% of the car's cost is subsidised. That kind of scale-up is of course possible based on massive government backing. On the autonomous side, I've experienced Waymo in San Francisco and Hyundai's lidar-based system in Shanghai: fully self-driving, even in chaotic traffic. The future is already here. And I've become a real fan, especially when I need to work between meetings or get to the airport. Same as Vay for teledriven car sharing. There’s so much going on! Has Europe lost the race? No! Not yet. But we're under pressure. And we need to move faster. The future is 100% electric: that's crystal clear to me. Hybrids may be an important bridge, but the long-term path is electrification, enabled by renewables. So the real question is: Can Europe match China's speed, scale, and tech leadership? Or are we looking at a permanent power shift in the EV industry?  I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments. #EV #ElectricVehicles #Mobility #Innovation #ChinaEV #EuropeEV #Automotive

As the CEO of DP World Europe, it’s my job to anticipate the major logistics trends that will continue to impact our industry. And in the wake of DP World’s third annual Global Freight Summit, I found myself reflecting – what are the trends that freight forwarders, supply chain providers, and industry specialists alike are looking out for? Here’s my view: 1. Digitalisation: In Europe’s highly interconnected trade ecosystem, digital solutions have been critical in streamlining supply chains and improving cross-border efficiency. Embracing smart logistics has allowed us to reduce costly delays at our ports and terminals and strengthen Europe’s position in global trade. 2. Sustainability: Europe is at the forefront of a more sustainable transition, and decarbonising our supply chains is not just an obligation but a competitive advantage. Future trade in Europe will be as much about greener credentials as about efficiency. 3. Geopolitical and Macro-Economic Uncertainty: From inflation to energy crises, Europe’s trade landscape has taught us the importance of resilience. Building flexibility into our operations and fostering meaningful collaborations with our customers have been vital in mitigating risks and maintaining stability. 4. Socio-Cultural Change and Demand: European consumers are driving demand for more sustainable, faster, and more transparent supply chains. Adapting to these expectations has reinforced the need for innovative solutions that not only meet demand but also reflect the values of the markets we serve. Europe’s trade landscape is evolving rapidly, and with every challenge comes an opportunity to better our industry. To find out more about how DP World is finding solutions to supply chain challenges, visit: https://lnkd.in/esfMsv3y

The global economic outlook has become more uncertain due to the evolving conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock, which is weighing on growth and adding to inflationary pressures. Global GDP growth is now projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. The resilience of growth reflects strong technology investment, lower effective tariffs and momentum carried over from 2025. But the outlook remains uncertain and depends on current energy market disruptions proving temporary. ‪These projections are based on a technical assumption that energy prices evolve in line with futures markets pricing.‬ ‪There is signifiant downside risk to those projections.‬ Inflation pressures will persist for longer than previously expected. In the G20, inflation is now projected to be 4.0% in 2026, reflecting the surge in global energy prices. Given these challenges, central banks should remain vigilant and ensure that inflation expectations are well-anchored. Any measures to mitigate the economic impact of the energy shock must be targeted and temporary, considering most governments’ limited fiscal space. Increasing renewable energy generation and energy efficiency can enhance economic security while boosting resilience to future price shocks. Read more in our latest Interim #EconomicOutlook, released today: https://oe.cd/6pf

Goodbye China — the world’s #1 clothing producer loses its crown 👑. For the first time in years, China has dropped below 30% of global apparel exports. Once the undisputed “factory of fashion,” it now stands at 29.6%, overtaken by the European Union with 29.7%, according to the World Trade Organization’s 2024 Key Insights Report. 📉 In 2010, China controlled nearly 37% of global apparel exports. In 2023, it still held 31.6%. The shift may look small on paper, but it signals a deeper transformation in global sourcing. Brands aren’t just chasing lower costs anymore — they’re prioritising resilience, traceability, better quality, and transparent partnerships. And that’s reshaping where and how production happens. Over the past year, I’ve worked with factories and stakeholders in Pakistan and Cambodia, supporting: • Sustainable production practices. • Circularity through material prioritisation. • Pre-consumer waste mapping. • Supply chain transparency introducing Digital Product Passport tools. So I was glad, but not surprised to see these countries gaining ground: 📈 Cambodia: up 24% in exports this year, now at 1.8% of the global market 📈 Pakistan: +15%, now representing 1.7% 📈 Vietnam: +9%, up to 6.1% 📈 India: +6%, stable at 2.9% 📈 Bangladesh: +7%, at 6.9% — with ongoing improvements in sustainability and factory compliance gaining traction, though reputational challenges persist. Meanwhile: 📉 Turkey: -4%, down to 3.2% 📉 China: stagnant at $165B in exports 📈 EU: $166B in exports, rising with reshoring and strong internal demand Let’s be honest, some of these emerging sourcing countries still have work to do. But what’s exciting is the genuine momentum in places willing to innovate, even those outside traditional fashion capitals. 🧵 The future of fashion manufacturing won’t be about volume alone. It will be about how things are made, and who you choose to partner with. What are your thoughts on the above? Is China’s decline purely about tariffs, or is this a deeper shift in values? GIZ Pakistan GIZ Cambodia Fashion Revolution Fashion for Good #SustainableFashion #ResponsibleSourcing #FutureOfFashion #MadeInPakistan #CambodiaFashion #SupplyChainTransparency #FashionManufacturing #TextileInnovation

A month ago I was with IMD #EMBAs in Japan on program about resilience, where conversations about #population_decline seem to be everywhere. The country's fertility rate has plummeted to just 1.15 (2024) children per woman, one of the lowest in the world. It’s been declining since the 1970s. But here's what's fascinating: #fertility rates had decreased in Japan much more than Sweden for the same period. Why? New research (May 2025) by Nobel laureate economist Claudia Goldin reveals something counterintuitive: the #speed of #economic_development matters more than the level of #wealth. Japan experienced explosive economic growth from the 1960-80s. Per capita income quadrupled in just two decades. But here's the catch, #social_norms couldn't keep pace with economic reality. The result? A #generational and #gender_conflict: • Women gained education and career opportunities rapidly • Men largely maintained traditional expectations about household roles • Today, Japanese women do 3+ hours more unpaid household work daily than men • In contrast, Swedish women do less than 1 hour more than men This isn't just about childcare policies or economic incentives. It's also about what happens in #private, when societies transform faster than cultural norms can adapt. Countries that developed more gradually (like those in Northern Europe) gave men and women time to #renegotiate #household_responsibilities. The result? Higher fertility rates even with high female employment. The lesson is clear: #economic_transformation without #social_transformation creates demographic challenges that are incredibly hard to reverse. These findings are especially meaningful in the #current_context when gender equity becomes a political fault line, workplace norms continue to reward availability over care, and traditional gender roles make a come back. Walking through Tokyo's quiet neighborhoods, you can feel this tension a modern economy built on traditional family structures that no longer work for the #families (and #women) themselves. Goldin reframes the #fertility_crisis as a #macroeconomic and #cultural challenge. It’s not about persuading women to have more babies, it’s about redesigning the world so they can. Worth reading the full paper in comments #Demographics #Japan #GenderEquality #EconomicDevelopment #SocialChange

As part of my comprehensive research about the EU and Europe, I wanted to better understand how global trade flows have changed in the recent past there. My research reveals that from 2000 to 2024, total goods trade (exports + imports) grew from $1.69 trillion to $5.43 trillion for the EU (4.1% CAGR) and from $474 billion to $6.16 trillion for China (11.3% CAGR). By 2024, China's total trade volume exceeded the EU’s by 14%, with exports 28% higher, while imports were nearly identical. As a result, China’s trade surplus was 510% larger than the EU’s. Trade as a share of GDP in 2024 stood at 33% for China and 28% for the EU.   In 2020, the EU was the larger trade partner for most countries worldwide, except Oman, Mongolia, Myanmar, North Korea, Sudan, and Yemen. However, by 2024, China had become the dominant trade partner for nearly all of Asia and the Middle East, about half of Africa, most of the Americas (excluding the U.S., Argentina, and a few small economies), as well as Russia and Oceania.   Looking ahead, the EU remains the most important trade partner for the U.S. and North Africa, while China continues to expand its influence across emerging markets—importing fuels, minerals, and agricultural goods while exporting manufactured products. Interesting, important data which helped me better understand while much of the current trade war rhetoric and tariffs make little to no economic sense, especially when it comes to the EU and the US. Selected text and graphic are © Visual Capitalist, 2025. All Rights Reserved, used with permission. © Mark S. Mandula, CLO BCR Learning, 2025. All Rights Reserved.