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How Does the Martingale Strategy Work?
The simplicity of the strategy is probably the reason for its massive popularity. The Martingale roulette system has a few rules that you need to follow, and the first one is the progression. Namely, the system is a progressive strategy, which means that you will need to follow a progression which will require you to increase your bet size after each loss. The strategy suggests that you should double the wagering amount after each loss.
It’s up to you to determine the unit size based on your bankroll and the table limits. The base amount is also the amount you are expected to win after each round.
After every win, you should wager the base amount. If you lose, however, you should double the bet until you win. It’s all plain and simple: the progression means that once you win, you will compensate for all your losses in the previous spins and still come out in profit of 1 unit.
Another rule is that the strategy only works with even-money outside bets like Odds/Evens, Red/Black, and High/Low. This chart shows how the strategy works in a real-life scenario:
Let’s see how the strategy works in action. To keep it simple, we will use a unit size of ₹1. We will simulate how the system would work in five spins.
Example
- Spin 1
We bet ₹1 on High. We lose. We double the bet size for the next spin.
- Spin 2
We bet ₹2 on High again. The ball lands on 7 Red. We lose again. The Martingale strategy suggests we double the bet size again.
- Spin 3
We bet ₹4 on High. The ball lands on 10 Black. We lose. We double the bet size again.
- Spin 4
We bet ₹8 on High again. The ball lands on 32 Black. We win ₹16. This compensates for the ₹15 we have wagered so far and we are ₹1 in profit.
- Spin 5
We revert back to the starting unit size and we wager ₹1 on high. We win. We complete another round.
Putting the Martingale System to the Test
To find out whether the Martingale roulette system is actually effective or not, we decided to put it through a test. We also wanted to check whether the strategy works in the long run, and if it does, to what extent.
We did that by creating a special Google Sheets test, which is based on an RNG with specific probabilities. The RNG works exactly like the Random Number Generators in online casino games, so the outcome of each spin is completely random. We went on with Google Sheets because testing the game live would take a lot of time, and it would be almost impossible to display in a chart. We let the simulation run for 1,000 spins and it followed the Martingale progression. The starting bankroll was set at ₹1,000, with a base unit of ₹1.
Check out the diagram below to see how effective the Martingale system was, and how the starting bankroll was fluctuating after each spin. The end result was positive, with the bankroll climbing to almost ₹1,500 by the 1,000th spin, but there were two scary moments during the 1,000 spins where the entire bankroll was at risk.
Although it might seem like it was smooth sailing all the way, especially if you focus on the end result only - it was not. There were two big moments, with the first one being around the 300th spin. As you can see in the graph, the bankroll dropped significantly after 10 consecutive losses. As per the progression, the next bet was in the amount of ₹1024. The bankroll was just ₹118, which means that, in a real-life scenario, the strategy would come to a halt.
There aren’t many options left when this happens. You can either choose to end the strategy and count your losses, reset and go back to the original base unit - which would also mean not compensating for the money you have already lost, and the third option would be to try a different strategy. The graph in our test assumes that we’re playing witn an infinite bankroll and doesn’t take into account any betting limits. In a real life scenario, the table will have betting limits, and the bet you need to place might be higher than the betting limits.
To test the strategy again with more realistic conditions, we set a bankroll of ₹300 with the same ₹1 base unit, and we used three players instead of one. We decreased the total number of spins from 1,000 to 100.
Let’s summarize what happened. Player 1 completed the simulation with ₹359 in their bankroll and a profit of ₹59. They didn’t experience any long sessions. Player 2, on the other hand, had a long session and would have gone below the starting bankroll by the 96th spin. They were left with ₹94 in their bankroll.
Player 3 experienced a long session on the 25th spin with a bankroll of ₹54. The graphs show that the Martingale strategy is effective as long as you don’t experience a long session. If you do, and it interrupts the progression, there is no real solution to the problem.
As you can see in our example, the player experienced 10 losses in a row. The probability of this happening is 0.127% in European and 0.163% in American roulette.
The probabilities seem quite low, but it’s not impossible for it to happen - as you can see from the graph - especially in a long run of 1,000 spins. The second example, where the players started with a smaller bankroll, ended for Player 2 and Player 3 after 8 consecutive losses, for which the probability of happening is 0.568% for European and 0.585% for American roulette.
CWhere Does the Martingale System Come Short
We saw from our simulation that the Martingale strategy definitely has some weaknesses, so let’s check out what they are.
Table Betting Limits
The first and primary weakness of the system are betting limits. If you were to use the system in an ideal world, there would be no betting limits, and you would be able to place as high of a bet as you need. But, table limits are very real, and you can’t go beyond them. Several consecutive losses might force you to go over them, which means that you’ll either lose all the money you’ve spent so far or try a different strategy.
On the bright side, there are many roulette table with limits that reach thousands and even millions of Indian Rupees for outside bets, so reaching the table limits is unlikely - as long as you choose a low enough base unit.
Your Bankroll
Being a progressive system, the Martingale requires you to double your wager size after every loss. This means that a longer streak might require a larger bankroll, and players with deeper pockets and bigger bankrolls are more likely to endure the strategy and ‘survive’ long sessions.
Consistency and Patience
Patience makes perfect, and that applies to this strategy too. The key to success with the Martingale is consistency. You’ve got the best chances if you play at least 100 spins, so don’t worry if you don’t turn a profit after several spins. Luck plays a great role too, so hope that you don’t endure a long losing streak.
Conclusion
The Martingale roulette system is probably the first one you’ll come across if you start looking for a betting strategy. Many claim it to be a ‘perfect’ strategy that guarantees you profit. That’s very untrue and completely misleading. As you can see from our simulations, the strategy doesn’t guarantee winning.
Yes, the Martingale strategy would be perfect if there were no table betting limits and you had unlimited money. In reality, you will never find a table without betting limits.
Another problem is the time factor. If you start with a base unit that’s low enough not to reach the table limits quickly, you will need a lot of time to make significant progress. The Martingale is a slow strategy.
Our final conclusion is that the Martingale strategy is not a scam, as some claim it to be. However, it’s not a system that guarantees profit either. It will most likely work well in the short to mid-term, but you will eventually be either forced to go beyond your initial bankroll or reach the table limits. Our most important tip would be to walk away while you’re in the green.
