The RBA earlier on today decided to hike interest rates by 25 basis points as was widely expected by market participants. Interest in the US JOLTs Job openings figure and Canada’s GDP rate for July could lead to moves for the dollar and Loonie.
MORNING OVERVIEW
The RBA showcased a willingness to continue on their rate hiking cycle, which could provide support for the Aussie. Later on today we’re looking at Canada’s GDP rate for July and the US JOLTs job openings figure for August. Moreover, considering the flurry of policymakers speaking today, we may see secondary impacts in the markets of their respective currencies.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| MARKET | CURRENT | CHANGE | COMMENT |
| S&P 500 | 7682 | -0.02% | N/A |
| DXY | 101.35 | +0.15% | JOLTs could weigh on the dollar |
| AUD/USD | 0.6990 | -0.41% | CPI rates tomorrow |
| Gold | 4143 | 0.68% | N/A |
| Brent Crude | 106.29 | 0.96% | US-Iran talks |
KEY MARKET THEMES
01 — The US JOLTs Job openings figure for August is set to be released today
The US JOLTs job openings figure for the month of August is set to kickstart the narrative surrounding the state of the US Labour market. Therefore, despite the figure being for August it could still set the tone for the dollar today. The figure is expected to come in at 7.240m which would be lower than the prior figure of 7.271m, implying a loosening labour market. In turn should the figure come in as expected or lower it could weigh on the dollar, whereas a higher than expected figure could provide support for the greenback.
Market implication (USD): Bearish
02 — Canada’s GDP rate for July to be released today
Canada’s GDP rate for July is set to be released during today’s American trading session. The rate is expected to showcase a stagnant economy, with economists predicting the GDP rate to come in at 0% which is lower than the prior rate of 0.3%. Therefore, should the GDP rate come in as expected or lower it could weigh on the Loonie, as concerns may be raised over the state of the economy. However, any rate higher than 0% could provide support for the CAD.
Market implication (CAD): Bearish
03 — RBA hikes as expected, warns of more to come.
The RBA earlier on today hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as was widely expected, bringing the bank’s rate for 4.60%. As we had noted, the interest may have turned to the bank’s accompanying statement in which the bank stated “Since the previous meeting, some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising” and that the board will do what it needs to do to bring inflation to the bank’s target “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”. The commentary by the RBA showcases a clear willingness to hike rates in the future, which in turn could provide support for the Loonie. Yet, despite all this, it appears that the announcement failed to excite Aussie traders.
Market implication (AUD) : Bullish
WHAT MATTERS TODAY
US JOLTs Job openings figure
Time (GMT+2): 17:00
Expected: 7.240M
Previous: 7.271M
Potential market reaction:
Could weaken the USD
Canada’s GDP rate MM for July
Time (GMT+2): 15:30
Expected: 0%
Previous: 0.3%
Potential market reaction:
Could weaken the CAD.
WHAT MATTERS TOMORROW
Australia’s CPI rates August
Time (GMT+2): 04:30
Expected: 4.10%
Previous: 3.50%
Potential market reaction:
Could support the AUD
ASSET FOCUS
[OIL / COMMODITIES]
![[OIL / COMMODITIES]](https://cdn.statically.io/img/www.tradingsphere.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-20.png)
Oil prices appear to be moving in a sideways fashion, having rebounded above our resistance now turned to support at the 91.25 (S1) level. We opt for a sideways bias for the commodity and supporting our case is the RSI indicator, which currently showcases a figure close to 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to be maintained we would require oil’s price to remain between our 91.25 (S1) support level and our 99.30 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above our 99.30 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 105.60 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a break below our 91.25 (S1) support line, with the next possible target being our 84.75 (S2) support level.
KEY LEVELS
- Resistance (R1): 99.30
- Resistance (R2): 105.60
- Support (S1): 91.25
- Support (S2): 84.75
Technical View: Neutral
CROSS-ASSET VIEW
| ASSET CLASS | BIAS | KEY DRIVER |
| Equities | Neutral | N/A |
| USD | Bearish | JOLTs figure |
| Gold | Neutral | Dollar |
| Oil | Neutral | Rejection of Iran’s proposed deal |
RISKS TO THE VIEW
The US proposing a ceasefire deal
The US proposing a ceasefire deal after rejecting Iran’s is the biggest risk to our view
TRADING SPHERE VIEW
Bullish for Oil
Our base case:
Tensions between the US and Iran could increase as the US rejects Iran’s proposal. In turn, we may see military strikes resuming the future.
What would change our view:
The US and Iran signing a peace deal
TODAY’S WATCHLIST
01 US JOLTs Job openings figure
02 Canada’s GDP rates
03 ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks
04 Fed Board Governor Barr speaks
05 BoE Taylor speaks
06 Fed Governor Waller Speaks
DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.
