The UN General Assembly is currently in full swing, with talks occurring between a variety of nations including the US and Iran, which could influence gold’s price.
Research Takeaway
Gold since our last report, has fluctuated close to our old support level. The main catalyst for gold prices could be the ongoing negotiations occurring on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly between the US and Iran in regards to a possible easing of tensions in the Middle East. Our reason for closely monitoring the developments is due to gold’s status as a safe haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Research Desk View: Neutral
Gold in One Minute
| Metric | View |
| Bias | Neutral |
| Primary Driver | USD |
| Main Risk | Geopolitics |
| Key Level | Hold below $4350 to preserve the thesis |
| Next Catalyst | US Durable Goods rate · 25/09/2026 / 15:30 GMT+2 |
The Gold Thesis
A small recap since our last report. The Fed did hike rates by 25 basis points as was widely expected, with Fed Chair Warsh noting that inflation has remained high for too long, which may imply that the Fed could continue on their rate hiking cycle. In turn, this may have aided the dollar whilst weighing on gold’s price given their inverse relationship with one another. For this week as we discussed during our introduction, the main event could be the ongoing UN General Assembly, in which the US and Iran have held their first informal talks, whilst the US President was threatening Iran’s leadership with ‘annihilation’. Nonetheless, the informal talks could weigh on gold’s price should they appear to be making progress, as it could imply an easing of tensions between the US and Iran. Hence considering gold’s status as a safe haven asset, the easing of tensions in the Middle East could lead to outflows, thus weighing on the bullion’s price. Yet, we remain skeptical as to whether any meaningful discussions will occur and whether any promises will be kept. Thus, should the US and Iran exchange blows it could aid gold’s price.
Gold Drivers
| Driver | Bias on Gold | Rationale |
| US 10YR rates | Support | US 10YR Yields have fallen slightly |
| Risk Demand | Supportive | Elevated geopolitical uncertainty |
| FED | Bearish | Hawkish Fed commentary |
Key Events
| Event | Date / Time | Prior – Anticipated – Actual | Potential Impact on Gold |
| US Durable goods orders rate | Friday / 15:30 GMT+2 | [Prior: 1.1%] – [Anticipated: -0.5%] – [Actual: N/A] | Could support gold’s price |
Technical Context
Gold appears to be moving in a sideways bias, following gold clearing and then moving below our 4350 (R1) resistance line. For our sideways bias to be maintained we would require the precious metal’s price to remain confined between our 4200 (S1) support level and our 4350 (R1) resistance line. Moreover, aiding our bias is the RSI indicator which tends to register a figure near 50, for the time being. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would require clear break below our 4200 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 4080 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above our 4350 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4510 (R2) resistance level.
Short-Term Gold Levels
| Level | Price |
| Support (1) | $4200 |
| Support (2) | $4080 |
| Resistance (1) | $4350 |
| Resistance (2) | $4510 |
| Horizon | Next week |
What Changes the View
| Signal | Development |
| 🟢 Confirms the Thesis | No major developments in talks between US-Iran |
| 🟢 Confirms the Thesis | No surprise in commentary from Fed policymakers |
| 🔴 Challenges the Thesis | Escalation between US-Iran |
| 🔴 Challenges the Thesis | Unexpected financial releases |
The Gold Lens
The UN General Assembly acts as a perfect cover for the US and Iran to hold informal talks on the sidelines of the assembly, possibly to improve their relations with one another or to ease tensions in the region. However, we’re focused on President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi and any announcements on the US’s relationship with Taiwan. As an implication that the US’s stance on Taiwan could be changing, may result in safe haven inflows into gold, thus aiding the bullions price.
Key Variables to Remember
| Indicator | Bullish for Gold | Bearish for Gold |
| Real yields | Falling | Rising |
| US Dollar | Weakening | Strengthening |
| Fed expectations | More easing | More tightening |
| Central-bank demand | Increasing | Weakening |
| ETF flows | Inflows | Outflows |
| Risk environment | Uncertainty | Risk appetite |
Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication
