MORNING OVERVIEW
Houthi Rebels per Reuters have fired ballistic missiles towards Saudi Arabia which claimed that it has intercepted six. Tensions continue in the region, with possible oil supply disruptions occurring should the rebels manage to strike oil pipelines, thus eyes are on the oil markets.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
| MARKET | CURRENT | CHANGE | COMMENT |
| S&P 500 | 7723 | +0.25% | Companies received upgraded valuations |
| DXY | 101.10 | -0.18% | Durable goods orders |
| EUR/USD | 1.1392 | +0.11% | N/A |
| Gold | 4290 | +0.38% | Middle East tensions |
| Brent Crude | 105.202 | -1.31% | Iran proposed deal to the US |
KEY MARKET THEMES
01 — Houthi rebels fire missiles towards Saudi Arabia targeting Riyadh and Aramco facilities
Houthi Rebels fired missiles towards Saudi Arabia, aiming for the capital Riyadh and Aramco oil facilities, with the Kingdom stating that they managed to intercept six ballistic missiles. In response to the recent attacks, arrangements are apparently being made for the chiefs of staff of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to meet in order to discuss ways they could support Saudi under the Mecca Joint Defence agreement. Overall, should Saudi Aramco facilities be struck which in turn disrupts the global oil supply, we may see oil prices moving higher.
Market implication (OIL): Bullish
02 — Iran presents the US with a proposal to re-open the strait of Hormuz
According to Reuters, Tehran has offered Washington a new seven day proposal to re-open the strait of Hormuz and to restart broader talks in order to bring an end to the war. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated “We have introduced a plan to the United States through the mediators that if certain conditions are met . . . the strait will be open in seven days”. In turn the possible re-opening of the strait of Hormuz and the easing of tensions could weigh on global oil prices. However, a failure to proceed with meaningful talks could upend our bias.
Market implication (OIL): Bearish
03 — US durable goods orders rate due out today
The US preliminary durable goods orders rate for August are set to be released later on today. On a headline level, the rate on a month-on-month level is expected to decrease from 1.1% to -0.3%, which could weigh on the greenback. However, the core rate is set to improve from 0.4% to 0.6% which could alleviate some of the downward pressures the dollar may face from the headline rate.
Market implication (USD) : Bearish
WHAT MATTERS TODAY
US preliminary Durable goods orders rate for September (MoM)
Time (GMT+2): 15:30
Expected: -0.3
Previous: 1.1%
Potential market reaction:
Could weaken the dollar
US preliminary Core Durable goods orders rate for September (MoM)
Time (GMT+2): 15:30
Expected: 0.4%
Previous: 0.6%
Potential market reaction:
Could support the dollar slightly
ASSET FOCUS
[GOLD / COMMODITIES]
![[GOLD / COMMODITIES]](https://cdn.statically.io/img/www.tradingsphere.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-18.png)
Gold prices appear to be moving in a sideways trajectory despite their clearing of our 4350 (R1) resistance level. We opt for a sideways bias for the precious metal’s price as long as the commodity remains confined between our 4350 (R1) resistance level and our 4200 (S1) support line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below our 4200 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being our 4080 (S2) support level. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above our 4350 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4510 (R2) resistance level.
KEY LEVELS
- Resistance (R1): 4350
- Resistance (R2): 4510
- Support (S1): 4200
- Support (S2): 4080
Technical View: NEUTRAL
CROSS-ASSET VIEW
| ASSET CLASS | BIAS | KEY DRIVER |
| Equities | Bullish | Major companies received upgrade valuations |
| USD | Bearish | Financial releases |
| Gold | Neutral | Dollar |
| Oil | Neutral | Iran proposed deal, |
RISKS TO THE VIEW
The US not agreeing to Iran’s proposal
Iran has proposed a way forward for the two nations, but whether or not the US will agree to it is a different story.
TRADING SPHERE VIEW
Neutral for Gold
Our base case:
Heightened inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East in addition to hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers may indicate a more general hawkish shift in the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions, which in turn could support the dollar whilst weighing on gold’s price
What would change our view:
The US striking Iran and vice versa
TODAY’S WATCHLIST
01 US Durable Goods orders rate
