Super Bowl Indicator Explained: Predicting Market Trends with Football

The Super Bowl Indicator is a market prediction tool created by Leonard Koppett in 1978. It suggests that if an NFC team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will rise, while an AFC win predicts a market decline. The indicator is more for entertainment value than science, and although it had some historical accuracy, its predictions have become less reliable in recent years.

What Is the Super Bowl Indicator?

The idea behind the Super Bowl indicator is that a Super Bowl win for an NFL team from the American Football Conference predicts a stock market decline (a bear market) in the coming year. On the other hand, a win for a team from the National Football Conference foretells a rise in the market or a bull run in the upcoming year.

The Super Bowl Indicator is an example of purely fun sports writing and not a real market predictor. There is no actual link between football teams and the U.S. stock market. This means that any apparent relationship between the two is purely a coincidence. What began as an interesting column many decades ago continues to make a new headline at least once a year.

Origins and Evolution of the Super Bowl Indicator

Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for The New York Times, introduced the Super Bowl Indicator in 1978. Koppett noticed a correlation; 11 of 12 Super Bowl outcomes accurately predicted the market's direction until that point.

However, it's essential to note that the Super Bowl Indicator is irrelevant for predicting the stock market. That's because there's no reason to believe that the winner of a football game dictates the performance of the stock market. However, that hasn’t stopped people from talking and writing about it for the past four decades.

 Evaluating the Accuracy of the Super Bowl Indicator

From 1967 to 2025, the indicator was correct with 71% accuracy. Since 2005, however, it has only been correct about 40% of the time.

Up to the 1990s, the Super Bowl Indicator boasted a more than 90% success rate in predicting the up-or-down outcome of the S&P 500 before the dot-com years (1998-2001). However, the old maxim applies: Correlation does not imply causation.

The Bottom Line

The Super Bowl Indicator was created by Leonard Koppett in 1978. It links the Super Bowl's results to stock market trends. It claims that if an NFC team wins, the market will rise, while an AFC win predicts a decline, though there’s no real evidence for this.