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NFL betting, odds: 5 futures bets I'd make right now, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win MVP
Futures bets are just that — a forward, future-looking index.
We could easily tell you who should win the MVP after Week 7 (Brock Purdy), or Defensive Rookie of the Year (David Bailey), but last year at this time, Baker Mayfield MVP buzz was still crackling, and no one had Carson Schwesinger on their radar.
Also, we've done some good work, grabbing players at better odds than they're at now for those respective awards, gaining modest equity on Joe Burrow (from +850 to +500) at THE WINDOW, and Jacob Rodriguez (from +1500 to +600) in our preseason looks at the NFL award markets.
Then there's a handful of players that we've missed the boat on, as +650 for Josh Allen feels like a steal now that he's +160 for MVP, and Kenneth Walker has gone from 35-1 to +350 for Offensive Player of the Year.
With 10+ games to go, though, and the slow creep of recency bias that will be in voters minds still to come, we've got five futures bets worth adding, now that we've:
Seen these teams play for almost two months
Can see a path to improvement over the next two
Before we get on the back side of the mountain and momentum for various award candidates becomes an irresistible force, here are best value bets out there.
MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (75-1)
As a bettor, it's our job to predict what voters are going to do, not what we think they should do, fully aware this has turned into a quarterback award. If Saquon Barkley couldn't wrestle it away from Josh Allen two years ago, it seems almost impossible for a non-QB to be the MVP.
But what if that only applies to running backs?
Enter Smith-Njigba, whose share of the offensive production on the Seahawks is comically high with a 50.2% receiving yardage share, a target share of almost 38% and eight of Seattle's 18 touchdowns.
Last season, JSN was arguably the best receiver in the game because his stats were in lock-step with Puka Nacua. This season, he's already 200+ yards and two touchdowns clear of any other receiver. Smith-Njigba edged out Nacua for the Offensive Player of the Year award, and while he could go back-to-back, at this rate, you could say he deserves something of a promotion this season to Most Valuable Player, given his quarterback leads the NFL in interceptions and Seattle's Super Bowl MVP running back is now in Kansas City.
In 2021, Cooper Kupp couldn't win the first receiver MVP with almost 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns, losing to Aaron Rodgers (and later winning Super Bowl MVP), but JSN is on pace for 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns — if he finishes with numbers anywhere near that, he could get it done this season.
There needs to be buzz for MVP, and, in his weekly appearance on the Ryen Russillo Podcast, Yahoo! Sports' Nate Tice discussed this possibility, breaking the ice on a national conversation about JSN's candidacy.
There's a case to be made that the two favorites — Josh Allen and Brock Purdy — are going to be challenged to keep their winning up due to defense and injuries, respectively. The Seahawks seem primed to go on a heater. If they can track down the 49ers to nab the NFC West (+345), Smith-Njigba might steal the MVP as well.
Offensive Player of the Year: Bijan Robinson (7-1)
Maybe Smith-Njigba has to settle for a second Offensive Player of the Year award, but if he wins MVP, or the season goes sideways for him, OPOY likely becomes a three-horse race between tailbacks.
Kenneth Walker has the early lead for the rushing title, moving him up the odds board for OPOY. Jahmyr Gibbs was the preseason favorite, and hasn't disappointed, but Bijan Robinson had to play two of seven games with Cooper Rush as his quarterback.
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Robinson's numbers were actually pretty good with Rush at the helm, but since Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut, the Falcons' offense has functioned well across the board. Plus, Atlanta's defense has been surprisingly stout, helping the Falcons' chances for more run-first situations in their final 10 games, and enough wins for voters to want to honor the team's best player.
Mix in the eye test, of Robinson being really fun to watch — already with seven long runs (tied with Walker for the league lead) — and some room for statistical improvement as a receiver, and you have a player ready to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Omar Cooper Jr. (10-1)
Speaking of late-season stat runs, the second half of a season might be all that matters for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Early on, most rookies are still trying to stay healthy and find their way in a new team's offense, and preseason OROY favorites Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price have already missed time, while a handful of receivers on bad teams have performed …fine.
Carnell Tate: 413 yards, 1 TD
Denzel Boston: 372 yards, 3 TD
KC Concepcion: 315 yards, 0 TD
Last season, Emeka Egbuka was more than just "fine," racking up 677 receiving yards and six touchdowns in the first nine weeks, and was the clear-cut favorite for OROY.
Things turned in the latter half of the season, when Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan finally got on the same page. In the final 10 games of the 2025 season, T-Mac had 601 yards and five touchdowns, getting to 1,000 yards on the year, while Egbuka ran out of gas.
This season, Omar Cooper Jr. missed all but seven snaps of the Jets' first five games, but since getting back on the field, he's raccked up 11 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns. It's a small sample size, but it's a nice start in trying to track down the receivers above him on the oddsboard.
If Cooper gets anywhere near 1,000 yards in just 12 full games, in a year where there's no standout tailback or rookie starting QB, the voters will be all in, and he's going to win Rookie of the Year.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 25: Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers lines up against the Atlanta Falcons during an NFL football game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 25, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Comeback player of the year: Fred Warner (10-1)
We've got talking heads making a case for Deshaun Watson as Comeback Player of the Year — a thing that's definitely not happening as long as human beings are still voting on these things. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is still the odds-on favorite, even as he's becoming less important to his own team's offensive success.
Neither player is currently a legitimate candidate for another NFL award, while Fred Warner has spent the early part of the season climbing the oddsboard for Defensive Player of the Year. However, it's more probable that a pass-rusher will take that award, and Warner will just miss out.
Warner's well-liked, his visually-jarring dislocated ankle injury last season is something worthy to recognize a come-back from, and he has an interesting rehab story (already featured on ESPN's Monday Night Countdown) about learning to swim at San Jose State.
Given the type of injury, the physically-taxing nature of middle linebacker, and the level Warner's performing at, he's got the perfect resume for CPOY, once voters get past Mahomes' merely decent play after a standard knee injury.
Best regular season record: Cincinnati Bengals (11-1)
He's not exactly the Hulk, but the NFL is not going to like Joe Burrow when he's very upset. The Ravens sure didn't last week, after Burrow's halftime locker room rant kick-started a dominant performance in the second half.
The 4-2 Bengals have already played at Baltimore (won) and Pittsburgh, and of their remaining 11 games, only a home game against the Chiefs has the chance of Cincinnati being even the smallest of underdogs.
Until the second half in Baltimore on Sunday, Cincinnati's offense hadn't lit up the league in a nationally attention-grabbing way, but we know it's more than capable.
Defensively, we spent the entire offseason asking the Bengals to have merely an average unit to support the capabilities of the offense, and Cincinnati is on the edge of the top-10 in both EPA/Play and Success Rate on standard downs and game situations, as both new additions of Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe are rated in the top five at their position by PFF.
A 13-4 record is a reasonable expectation, while the teams ahead of them have a tougher remaining schedule that could bring them down to that record or below.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.