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Week 8 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our 6 best bets for this week's games
Our experts give their favorite wagers for a packed NFL slate
Week 8 of the NFL season began with the Green Bay Packers getting back on track with a 27-19 home win over the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
Our NFL handicapping team of Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 8 of the NFL season.
Odds subject to change.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 46.5)
Jacob: I'm not going to call the Minnesota Vikings a fraud — that's a bit harsh. But let's put it this way: There's a reason as many as 11 teams have shorter Super Bowl odds right now than the only team still undefeated.
Look, you can't argue with an 11-game overall winning streak (and a 6-0 start to this season). Nor can you argue that the Vikings field the NFL's best defense — one that's yielding a scant 12.3 points per game. (The next stingiest defense? Kansas City at 17.2 PPG.)
Here's what's also true, though: Since opening with a pair of divisional victories over Green Bay (despite trailing 22-10 well into the second half) and Chicago (which squandered multiple touchdown opportunities and lost quarterback Caleb Williams on a potential game-winning drive), Minnesota's competition has been weak.
We're talking four straight games against the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Saints and Colts. Combined record: 7-20.
Now, the Vikings travel to the Motor City to face a rejuvenated Lions squad coming off consecutive victories over Arizona (45-21 on the road) and Green Bay (20-17 at home). The most crucial thing to isolate in those two scores? The numbers to the right of the dash.
After shutting out the Saints in the first half of the season opener, Detroit's defense gave up 127 points in the ensuing 14 quarters. So holding the Cardinals and Packers to 38 total points suggests progress. Things should be even easier for the Lions' stop unit this week, as Minnesota is averaging just 17.2 PPG since Week 2.
Last week, the Vikings came off a bye and barely took out the lowly Colts 16-10 at home. Their previous home game? A touchdown-less 15-10 win over Miami. Translation: This team is long overdue for an "L". And I'm confident Detroit will deliver it Sunday by at least a touchdown.
Bet: Lions -3.5
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3, 54.5)
Russell: Ray Lewis isn't walking through that door. In fact, a much younger, more effective version of Roquan Smith isn't either, as he's the 34th-ranked linebacker by PFF grade this season, which is still a higher grade than either Ravens cornerback.
Remove garbage time, fourth downs and turnovers — getting to the root of a team's defensive effectiveness — and Baltimore is 14th in EPA/Play and 19th in Success Rate allowed. That's actually flattering, because when you factor in that the Ravens don't turn opponents over (just three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), the numbers get worse.
The Bills defense isn't any good at all, but that hasn't been an issue for a Josh Allen-led offense that has outscored its opponents in an absurd four wins when they've allowed 30-plus points.
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Coming off a bye, there's been two weeks for development in this transitional season for Buffalo's defense under Jim Leonhard, giving more time for the incremental improvement of a young unit.
Lamar Jackson is expected to return, and it's possible that -2.5 shows up once that's official, but if he isn't able to go, this line should be north of a touchdown. Given the nature of Jackson's injury and history, the chance of re-injury is higher than usual. Meanwhile, even if he were 100% throughout, the Ravens' market rating is still clinging to dominant first halves against the Colts and Titans, and the assumption that the Ravens offense can go shot-for-shot with Buffalo is too far a reach.
Bet: Bills -3
New England Patriots (-7, 43.5) at Miami Dolphins
Pond: Drake Maye and the Patriots have had plenty of time to get their heads straight after last week's 30-24 road loss against the Chicago Bears.
And what better way for New England (4-3) to get back in its groove than a cushy matchup against the lowly Miami Dolphins (1-5), who are currently a touchdown underdog heading into this showdown in South Florida.
When it comes to finding his teammates in the end zone, Maye has been on fire of late. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions in the Patriots' last four outings, including a four-TD effort against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I fully expect Maye to keep this aerial trend going and have another big day. Miami has allowed opposing QBs to complete just under 77% of their passes, so I think Maye should have no issue completing at least two of those for touchdowns.
Bet: QB Drake Maye over 1.5 TD passes (-138, FanDuel)
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 40.5) at Denver Broncos
Jacob: A week ago, I told you the Seahawks' defense would smother former teammate — and NFL leading rusher — Kenneth Walker III. And that's precisely what happened, as Walker was held to a season-low 36 yards on 14 carries in the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the defending champs. His previous low: 70 yards in Week 3 at Miami.
Now we're jumping back on the Walker bandwagon. My rationale? No different than last week: It's all about the opponent. Only three teams — the Cowboys, Raiders and Saints — have surrendered more rushing yards this season than Denver. On a per-game basis, the Broncos are allowing 133.3 ground yards, which ranks 28th. They're also getting gashed for more than 4.5 yards per carry.
Of course, a big reason for these numbers is Walker. In his Kansas City debut in the Week 1 Monday nighter, Walker gashed Denver for 173 yards on 24 carries in a 31-10 rout. And exactly two years earlier — Week 1 of 2024 — Walker rumbled for 103 yards in helping the Seahawks to a 26-20 victory over the Broncos (who went on to finish with the third-stingiest rush defense).
In addition to Walker, Denver this year has been bowled over by Jacksonville's Bhayshul Tuten (65 yards on just 13 carries); the Rams' Kyren Williams (88 yards, 15 carries); the Chargers' duo of Omarian Hampton and Kimani Vidal (combined 110 yards, 22 carries); and the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey and Debo Samuel (combined 96 yards, 18 carries).
Will the Broncos, still miffed about what happened in Week 1, key in on Walker on Sunday afternoon? Of course. Unlike against Seahawks, though, it won't matter.
Bet: Kenneth Walker III over 82.5 rushing yards
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (-5.5, 40.5)
Pond: Two teams headed in the wrong direction square off Sunday night and I think the visiting side has the edge ahead of this affair.
Philadelphia (2-5) continues to watch its playoff hopes fade away, largely in part due to the loss of QB Jalen Hurts. Running back Saquon Barkley is playing hurt, but will likely try to give it a go for this NFC East clash. Wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable as well, meaning it's slim pickings for quarterback Tanner McKee in regard to pass-catching options.
So why the Eagles? Well, Washington (1-4-1) has just as many problems. QB Jayden Daniels is dealing with an elbow issue, plus RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt and WR Terry McLaurin are both on IR.
This is going to be one of those divisional dogfights, and while both teams are dealing with issues during respective seasons currently on downward spirals, it doesn't mean we won't see a spirited effort.
Back the Eagles to keep this one close despite all the absences and ailing players. I'm also jumping on Makai Lemon at a juicy price to score a touchdown for the second consecutive game. Lemon finished with seven receptions on eight targets for 67 yards and a touchdown against Dallas, and looks ready for a breakout in the second half of the season.
Bets: Eagles alt spread +6.5 (-122) and WR Makai Lemon anytime TD (+340) at FanDuel