Top Podcast Charts - Apple Podcasts

Joel Osteen Podcast

1

Joel Osteen Podcast

iHeartPodcasts
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

2

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Pushkin Industries
Mafia

3

Mafia

Audioboom Studios
Betrayal Season 6

4

Betrayal Season 6

iHeartPodcasts | Glass Podcasts
Real Dictators

5

Real Dictators

NOISER
The Binge Cases: Doctor Billions

6

The Binge Cases: Doctor Billions

Sony Music Entertainment
Dial In with Jonny Ardavanis

7

Dial In with Jonny Ardavanis

Jonny Ardavanis

2 days ago

Anthropic冲刺IPO：2万亿美元估值贵不贵？拆解Claude的增长、成本与竞争｜S10E34

一家成立只有五年的公司，能否撑起2万亿美元的估值预期？2026年10月26日，Claude背后的公司Anthropic公开了IPO招股书。2026年上半年，它的收入接近163亿美元，约为上年同期的14倍；截至9月底，净收入留存率达到约900%。这些数字让外界看到了AI需求的增长，也带来了新的问题：客户会一直增加使用量吗？模型领先能维持多久？如果收入增长放缓，提前锁定的算力成本又该如何消化？本期，「科技早知道」主播丁教邀请「涉市未深」主播九州Aaron和「苔藓之火」主播Raymond，从二级市场投资人的视角，一起拆解Anthropic的增长、成本与竞争。我们聊到了为什么选择现在上市、如何理解万亿美元估值、Coding之外的商业机会，以及中国开源模型在全球市场的位置。两位嘉宾总体看好Anthropic，但对模型迭代、技术差距和买入时点有不同判断：当真实需求与高预期同时存在，我们该如何理解这门生意的机会与风险？本期人物丁教 Diane，「声动活泼」联合创始人、「科技早知道」主播｜小红书、视频号、抖音：声动活泼-丁教 Aaron，周玖洲 Aaron，十年中金、华夏基金等顶级投资机构工作经验，「涉市未深」主播，「不止金钱」主播， Raymond Huang，科技投资人、「苔藓之火」主播主要话题 [02:32] 现金充裕，Anthropic为什么还要赶着上市？先进入公开市场的公司，有机会成为投资人理解和定价这个行业的参照，后来的公司则需要解释自己的差异。上市身份还能打开股权、债务等更多融资渠道，即使账上资金充裕，公司也需要为下一阶段的竞争储备资源。 [08:30] 大模型到底是轻资产还是重资产生意？ AI基础设施需要巨额投入，但这些资产由云厂商持有还是模型公司自建，会形成完全不同的财务结构。即使不持有全部硬件，模型公司也可能通过长期采购承诺承担很重的成本。 [10:03] 1.5万亿到2万亿美元的估值，到底贵不贵？按2026年全年约600亿美元收入估算，1.5万亿美元估值对应约25倍市销率（PS），2万亿则约33倍。估值贵不贵不取决于绝对金额，还要看收入规模、增长速度，以及这些预期最终能否兑现。 [15:36] 模型像海鲜，领先优势只能维持几个月吗？ Anthropic披露，2026年第三季度超过80%的收入来自过去六个月发布的模型版本。今天领先的产品必须不断面对更新模型的竞争；但如果迭代速度放缓，不同代际的模型也可能长期共存。 [21:41] 900%的净收入留存率，究竟是什么概念？同一客户群带来的收入约为上年同期的9倍，它衡量的是原有客户的收入变化，而不是用户数量。增长来自客户把AI用于更复杂、更长的工作流程；但从少量尝鲜转向正式使用时，较低的起点也会放大增长倍数。 [24:23] 除了卖模型和API，Anthropic还能怎么赚钱？模型公司可能从工具提供者，进一步变成参与解决行业问题的商业伙伴，例如进入新药研发等更完整的业务流程。如果未来按结果收费或参与收益分成，��入来源和竞争壁垒都可能改变，但这距离稳定、规模化的收入仍需要验证。 [29:15] 下一个Coding会是什么？答案可能还是Coding Coding的市场空间不能只按程序员人数或工资估算，编程能力还能支撑工作流自动化、工具开发等更广泛的数字任务。下一个增长点未必来自全新的行业，也可能来自更多人通过AI完成原本不会编程、没有时间编程或需要团队协作才能完成的工作。 [30:36] 给AI花的钱，已经超过给员工的钱了吗？ 2026年4月，Anthropic内部Claude用量按公开标价折算的价值，首次超过当月不含股权激励的人事费用。这反映的是AI在公司内部的使用规模，不能直接解释成公司实际付给AI的现金已经超过员工工资。 [32:59] 单季度经营盈利，为什么上半年仍有巨额净亏损？ 2026年第二季度经营利润接近10亿美元，而上半年净亏损超过800亿美元，两个数字处在利润表的不同层级。净亏损主要来自可转债等融资工具的公允价值变动，非现金损失不等于当期烧掉了同等金额的现金。 [34:33] 云厂商既是股东和渠道，又有自己的模型，会不会成为风险？云平台既帮助Anthropic触达企业客户、提供算力，又同时拥有自己的模型产品，合作与竞争交织在一起。多方合作不等于绑定某一家或形成资金自循环，真正需要持续观察的是Anthropic能否扩大自己的客户关系和渠道。 [38:46] 需求还不确定，为什么先签长期算力合同？算力供给需要提前建设、提前锁定，但客户未来的购买并没有同样长期的保证，风险来自投入期限与收入确定性的错配。 2026年第二季度，每1美元算力支出已能带来约2美元收入；但算力并非全部成本，盈利能力仍要结合完整利润表和现金流判断。 [41:08] AI需求是真的，估值也可能跌吗？需求真实存在与估值出现调整可以同时发生：企业可能继续扩大AI应用，只是增速没有市场原先设想得那么快。对一家被寄予高增长预期的公司来说，继续增长也可能意味着不及预期。 [42:53] 对比智谱和MiniMax，为什么不能只看增速？各家公司的收入基数、客户市场和融资环境差异很大，相似的高增长百分比，未必代表相近的业务规模和商业成熟度。更值得关注的是现金流何时持续改善，以及融资环境变化后公司能否继续投入。 [49:26] 中国开源模型的机会，只是更便宜吗？一家巴西企业计划到2027年底，把约一半的Token用量转向开源模型，便宜之外也有真实的使用需求。中美模型能力的差距会随版本迭代不断变化，不宜把某一时点的差距直接外推为长期结局。 [57:45] 看好Anthropic，是否意味着上市就应该买入？长期看好与在某个具体价格买入是两层判断，需要结合上市时的估值和市场情绪，过热时可以等待。参与长期技术浪潮很重要，但也要预期价格会出现较大波动。名词解释 Anthropic、Claude与Claude Code Anthropic是公司名称；Claude是其模型家族及相关AI助手产品的名称；Claude Code则是面向编程任务的Agent工具。 IPO与S-1 IPO（Initial Public Offering）指首次公开发行股票。S-1是公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的一类证券发行注册文件，通常包含业务、财务、风险和发行信息。提交S-1不代表发行价格已经确定。市销率 PS或P/S Price-to-Sales Ratio，用公司总市值或股权估值除以某一年度的收入。 ARR与年化收入 ARR（Annual Recurring Revenue）通常指年度经常性收入。Anthropic披露的Run-Rate Revenue则把近期消费型和订阅型收入年化，用于描述某一时点的业务规模。年化值不等于已经实现的全年收入，也不保证下一年的收入下限。净收入留存率 NRR Net Revenue Retention，比较同一客户群在两个时期带来的收入，综合体现增购、缩减使用和流失。Anthropic的口径排除Claude Pro和Max固定价格订阅；900%意味着相关客户群收入约为基期9倍。资本开支 CAPEX与长期算力承诺 CAPEX（Capital Expenditures）通常指购买或建设长期资产的支出，例如服务器和数据中心。长期购买云算力的合同承诺不全部等同于CAPEX；即使自有资产较少，公司仍可能承担大量未来付款义务。公允价值变动部分资产或负债需要按公允价值重新计量，其变化可能计入当期损益。例如可转债负债价值上升，可能形成会计损失，却不意味着当期支付了同等现金。 GAAP与Non-GAAP GAAP是美国通用会计准则；Non-GAAP是公司在准则指标基础上作调整后披露的指标。使用调整后指标时，需要同时看它剔除了哪些项目，以及与GAAP指标的对照。延伸阅读 Anthropic S1招股书 2026年10月26日 2万亿美元为节目讨论的估值预期，不是已确定的IPO发行估值。节目中的全年收入和未来商业模式判断属于嘉宾预测；历史财务数据与预测需分别理解。本期讨论仅供信息交流，不构成投资建议。幕后制作监制：Diane 后期：迪卡运营：George 设计：饭团商业合作声动活泼商业化小队，点击链接直达声动商务会客厅，也可发送邮件至 business@shengfm.cn 联系我们。加入声动活泼声动活泼正在招聘全职商务运营经理、早咖啡内容实习生和社群实习生，如果你也对播客行业的内容制作感兴趣，欢迎点击招聘入口关于声动活泼「用声音碰撞世界」，声动活泼致力于为人们提供源源不断的思考养料。我们还有这些播客：声动早咖啡、声东击西、吃喝玩乐了不起、反潮流俱乐部、泡腾 VC、商业WHY酱、跳进兔子洞、不止金钱欢迎在即刻、微博等社交媒体上与我们互动，搜索声动活泼即可找到我们。期待你给我们写邮件，邮箱地址是：ting@sheng.fm 欢迎扫码添加声小音，在节目之外和我们保持联系。 Special Guests: Aaron and Raymond Huang.
3 days ago

#2571 - Jimmy Carr

Jimmy Carr is a comedian, television personality, and writer. His new book, "On Jokes: The Hidden Mechanics of Funny," co-authored with Amanda Baker and Abi Grant, is available now. He is currently on tour.www.youtube.com/@jimmycarrwww.jimmycarr.com/product/on-jokeswww.jimmycarr.com Perplexity: Download the app or ask Perplexity anything at https://pplx.ai/rogan. Don’t miss out on all the action this week at DraftKings! Download the DraftKings app today! Sign-up using https://dkng.co/rogan or through my promo code ROGAN. Call of Duty Modern Warefare 4. Available now! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Oct

True Crime Vault: Finding Kelsie

A young woman goes missing. There's no body, no murder weapon, no crime scene. Now, follow one mom's crusade for justice. To get ad-free episodes, early access to new true crime podcasts, and exclusive bonus episodes, subscribe to 20/20 True Crime+ on Apple Podcasts. ⁠Click here⁠ to start your free trial today. Terms apply. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2 days ago

Are We in an A.I. Bubble? We're About to Find Out.

Monday gave us the release of Anthropic’s S-1 filing, providing the clearest view yet into the business side of the A.I. boom and setting the stage for what could be the largest initial public offering in history. We’ll talk to Erin Griffith, who has been reporting on the story, about what it means for the company, the tech industry and the broader economy. Then we’re joined by the tech reporter Mike Isaac and the writer Jasmine Sun to break down the rest of this week’s tech news, including how the midterm elections next week could affect the future of tech policy, as well as the latest round of cybersecurity worries and Microsoft’s offer of buyouts to 60,000 employees. Guests: Erin Griffith, a technology reporter at The New York TimesMike Isaac, a technology reporter at The New York TimesJasmine Sun, journalist and writer at jasmi.news Additional Reading: Anthropic Reveals Skyrocketing Growth and Spending Plans in I.P.O. FilingWhat’s Riding on Anthropic’s Market Debut? Nearly Everything.Anthropic’s I.P.O. Prospectus Spells Out a Future of Promise and PerilWhy Anger About Data Centers and Energy Prices May Not Swing VotesWhat Is PHP? Why Are Government and Business Websites Going Offline?Microsoft Offers Buyouts to 60,000 Employees as It Spends on A.I.We want to hear from you. Email us at hardfork@nytimes.com. Find “Hard Fork” on YouTube and TikTok. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
3 days ago

I Escaped The Cult Responsible For My Son’s Death

Check out https://www.squarespace.com/OPL to save 10% oﬀ your first purchase of a website or domain using code OPL Visit https://wwwuncommongoods.com/opl for 15% off! This week Joe Santagato and Greg Dybec speak to a woman about why she joined a cult and how she was eventually able to escape. She also talks about why she believes the cult is responsible for her son’s death. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
18 hr ago

Todd Murphy, Daisy's Net Session, Christian Horner - The Rush Hour Sunday Session - Sunday 1st November 2026

It’s Sunday! Which means its time to pop on your bib and help yourself to another serving of The Rush Hour’s Sunday session podcast. Spin bowler extrondanaire Todd Murphy joins us - Daisy & Bill ended up training with him a the Melbourne Stars, you can hear how that went. We’ve got the hump day quiz, we chat to the 'Big Nasty' Nelson Asofa-Solomona as well as an extended interview with the man behind the Red Bull F1 team, Christian Horner. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
11 hr ago

Taylor Wardlaw

What authorities believe to be a bond violation unfolds into something more sinister. Season 35 Episode 2 Originally aired: Sun, Jan 12, 2025 Watch full episodes of Snapped on the Oxygen app: https://oxygen.tv/watchsnapped See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
20 Oct

My Unredacted Interview with The Leah Files

Leah, I chose not to release your episode because I personally had serious concerns about the truthfulness of your statements. I take what I put out on my platform seriously for myself and for my listeners. For the sake of transparency, here's the full interview so everyone can watch and draw their own conclusions. As for my investments, I've intentionally made them public, as you see on my LinkedIn. I invest in Shield AI and Anduril for no other reason than I believe in their ability to develop technology that equips and protects the American warfighter. That's something deeply personal to me that I believe in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Season 23, Episode 3

Rat’s Nest

It’s not just Drobot. As the FBI caught on to the breathtaking scope of the fraud, they expanded their investigations all over Southern California. And they started turning one doctor after another into wire-wearing informants. Want the full story? Binge every episode of Doctor Billions ad-free now by subscribing to The Binge+. You’ll unlock over 60 true crime series instantly, get early access to drops on the first of every month, and hear exclusive bonus episodes. Search for the channel on Apple Podcasts or head to GetTheBinge.com. For behind-the-scenes details, join our free newsletter at Patreon.com/TheBinge. Doctor Billions is a production of Sony Music Entertainment and Western Sound. Follow @sonypodcasts and discover more at sonymusic.com/podcasts. Learn more about your ad choices at podcastchoices.com/adchoices. The Binge — feed your true crime obsession. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
1 day ago

I SURVIVED: I Could Smell The Fuel Was Coming Into The Train

Arkesha is on her way home from a school dance when she is robbed and sexually assaulted by two young men. While looking for help she explains what has happened to a passerby only for him to assault her as well. Jeremy and Jenny were strangers on a train for their daily commute when it crashes. Struggling between the desire to help and self preservation Jeremy helps pull Jenny from the burning wreckage of the first car. Yvette is on her first date with a good friend who is teaching her black and white photography when a young man opens fire on them. Progressive - Multitask right now. Quote your car insurance at Progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. Sequencing - Go to Sequencing.com and use promo code ISURVIVED for up to 10% off your full Genome test, plus free shipping! Talkiatry - Head to Talkiatry.com/ISURVIVED to get matched with an in-network psychiatrist in just a few minutes Tempo - Check out TempoMeals.com/SURVIVED for 60% off your first box! See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.