David Barry

So PJM capacity prices hit the price cap again, which was a surprise to no one who has been observing the market. As we've written about extensively, the only solution to the cost problem while also getting new supply online is to channel revenues to new entry without providing revenues to the rest of the supply stack. A few notes: * To those talking about extending the price caps: you fundamentally cannot implement a price cap below the cost of new entry and then ask why new entry isn't coming into the market * To those listening to what the IPP and generation associations are saying: they have a clear incentive to keep capacity prices high, so you need to read their comments through that lens. * To those assessing the future revenue potential of generation assets in PJM: you need to be aware that it is politically untenable for prices to rise to the cost of new entry and stay there. * To those blaming datacenters: load growth was coming and this was going to happen no matter what...datacenters just accelerated the underlying reality. Even with sufficient new supply to meet demand, capacity prices STILL have to rise to the level needed to support the new supply. SUMMARIZING: high capacity prices are both necessary to incentivize new generation and unavoidable in an era of load growth. And it is politically unpalatable to allow prices to stay high, but economically impossible for them to stay low. The only solution is to provide direct financial support to new entry outside of the capacity market. https://lnkd.in/gXKXe4Ck

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CPS Energy has agreed to buy four gas power plants from PROENERGY for nearly $1.4 billion. 💵 The combined capacity of the plants equals 1,632 MW, which are spread across Harris, Brazoria, and Galveston counties in Texas’ ERCOT market. The facilities also have dual-fuel capacity, allowing for potential future hydrogen use. CPS Energy and PROENERGY have also negotiated both Operations and Maintenance (O&M) and Total Care Services Agreements (TCSA), meaning that PROENERGY will continue to operate and maintain the plants. 👍 Acquisitions of existing plants, as well as construction of new generation, is rapidly ramping up in the ERCOT market. This region is seeing intense growth in power demand, largely thanks to data centers and manufacturing. What do you think of this deal? Share your thoughts below. ⬇️ Source: ECP Press Release 9/16/2025 Disclaimer: Nothing in this post constitutes investment advice. #naturalgas #powerdemand #electricity #energy

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ECP (Energy Capital Partners) has agreed to sell 2.6 GW of natural gas capacity to Talen Energy for $3.45 billion. 💵 The acquisition includes Ohio’s Waterford Energy Center and Darby Generating Station, as well as the Lawrenceburg Power Plant in Indiana. This allows Talen to expand significantly in PJM, a region seeing incredible power demand growth. When the acquisition is complete, the company will have approximately doubled its expected annual generation output in under 2 years. ❗️ The $3.45 billion price tag includes $2.55 billion in cash and roughly $900 million in Talen stock. According to Mac McFarland, Talen’s Chief Executive Officer, “This acquisition further diversifies Talen’s generation portfolio by adding both baseload capacity and strong cash flow contribution and enhances our presence in the western PJM market, which has significant data center tailwinds.” What do you think of this acquisition? Share in the comments below. ⬇️ Link to the full article in the comments. Source: ECP Press Release 1/15/2026 Disclaimer: Nothing in this post constitutes investment advice. #naturalgas #powerdemand #energy #electricity

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The PJM’s fast-track interconnection process has drawn in 26.6 GW of proposals from 94 different applicants. ⚡️ Why is this important? The PJM Interconnection’s Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) is an attempt at fixing thinning power supply margins, which are largely due to power plant retirements and increased electricity demand. If not addressed, PJM is in danger of having capacity shortfalls as soon as next year. The RRI will allow PJM to add up to 50 projects to the new interconnection Transition Cycle 2. Proposed projects include both new and updated nuclear facilities, natural gas-fired power plants, and battery storage sites. 💡 Specific proposals include 700 MW of capacity from LS Power and 450 MW of power uprates from AlphaGen. 👍 How do you think PJM can best fill in the gaps? Share your thoughts below. ⬇️ Source: Utility Dive, 3/27/2025 Disclaimer: This post is made for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this post constitutes investment advice. #powergrid #energytransition #electricity #technology #innovation

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Google signs 1.17GW worth of PPAs with Clearway Energy Group Google has signed a series of long-term Power Purchase Agreements with Clearway Energy Group across Missouri, Texas, and West Virginia, totaling 1.17GW supporting operations in the SPP, ERCOT, and PJM markets for up to 20 years. These projects represent $2.4B+ in clean energy investment, strengthening the grid while powering critical digital infrastructure. Construction begins this year, with sites coming online in 2027–2028. “Strengthening the grid by deploying reliable, clean energy is crucial for supporting the digital infrastructure that businesses and individuals depend on,” said Amanda Peterson Corio, Google’s global head of Data Center Energy. For Clearway, this builds on their growing portfolio of PPAs with hyperscale operators, including Microsoft, and highlights the accelerating collaboration between tech and renewable developers to meet historic load growth across the US. “Clearway is proud to collaborate with Google on a diverse portfolio of projects that will deliver near-term energy and capacity to help power Google’s data centers across regions experiencing historic load growth,” said Valerie Wooley, SVP of Origination at Clearway. At Futura, we partner with renewable developers and hyperscale operators to ensure the right talent is in place to deliver these transformative projects from engineering and construction to operations. Scaling the workforce efficiently is just as crucial as the technology itself.

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NY prices $950M bond offering to fund Power Authority electricity supply Noah Schwartz • Commodity Insights Thursday, July 17, 2025 1:58 PM ET The New York Energy Finance Development Corporation is issuing $950 million in bonds to fund a 30-year supply of electricity for the New York Power Authority. The deal is the first time New York has used a prepayment transaction for power purchase agreements, New York Power Authority (NYPA) President and CEO Justin Driscoll told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a statement. NYPA officials said on July 16 that they expect the deal, under which the public power authority will then purchase electricity from the Energy Finance Development Corporation, will provide its customers savings on renewable energy. "We will achieve 10% savings for our renewable energy purchases for our customers from now into the future, and it will make it more affordable for our customers to enter into renewable projects, knowing that they can achieve this 10% savings on top of whatever price they are being offered," NYPA CFO Adam Barsky told Platts. NYPA originally hoped to make the deal in March or April, but the market conditions after the announcement of President Donald Trump's tariffs proved unfavorable, according to Barsky. "We had to sideline the deal until markets became more favorable, which only occurred in the last few weeks. We were all set up ready to go," Barsky said. NYPA officials said these types of prepaid transactions could play a larger role in the state's energy transition, as policymakers such as Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) have stressed the importance of reaching the state's climate goals affordably. "We've done a lot to diversify our credits and ways in which we access the market to be innovative to come up with different types of financings that either result in allowing NYPA to do larger transactions or enter into more projects," Barsky said. "This is just a continuation of that, just looking for better ways to achieve the goals for New York and the energy transition. Making sure this all remains affordable is really at the top of the list." The deal could also serve as a way for the state to ensure that it can still finance renewable projects after the federal budget enacted July 4 terminated the Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45Y clean electricity production credit and Section 48E clean electricity investment credit for those projects. "We need solutions like this to offset the loss of the federal support in order to have these projects remain affordable so that they can keep going on," Yamini Kalidindi, vice president of NYPA's enterprise portfolio management office, said. The public power utility has expanded its role in New York's energy transition after state policymakers passed the Build Public Renewables Act in 2023 as part of the following year's budget, allowing NYPA to build, own and operate renewable energy projects.

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Energy Vault (NYSE: NRGV) Closes $18 Million Project Financing for 57 MW/114 MWh Cross Trails Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Serving the Texas ERCOT Market The Cross Trails BESS, completed and brought to full commercial operation in June 2025, is supported by a 10 year off-take agreement with Gridmatic An additional $12+ million in Federal Investment Tax Credit-related funds are expected to be received later this quarter via a previously executed ITC sale agreement Cross Trails financing delivers an attractive levered IRR of ~15% while building on the successful execution of Energy Vault’s ‘Own & Operate' asset management strategy, following the successful close earlier this year of the $28 million project financing for the Calistoga Resiliency Center micro-grid in California. https://lnkd.in/g48ZjRKk

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We’re excited to announce a significant milestone in Wärtsilä Energy’s growth in the U.S. independent power producer market. EMPower has selected Wärtsilä to deliver ten Wärtsilä 31SG engines for a new 123 MW power plant in Odessa, Texas  – the world’s largest installation of this engine platform. ✨ This plant will supply electricity to more than 30,000 homes, supporting grid reliability and the integration of renewables. With exceptional fuel efficiency and the ability to reach full output in just 2.5 minutes, the Wärtsilä 31SG is built for the demands of modern, flexible power systems. ⚡ Building on a trusted partnership with EMPower across other countries, this project includes a 10-year operation and maintenance agreement that ensures optimal support while maximising the engines’ performance and efficiency. 🤝 💬 EMPower’s CEO Daniel Gutierrez highlights: “Wärtsilä has proved to be a reliable partner, with highly efficient and flexible energy solutions that can deliver the power capacity needed. Wärtsilä’s market expertise and advanced technology have been essential to the project.” 🔗 Read more in our latest announcement: https://ow.ly/fSsi30sTt63 #WartsilaEnergy #FlexiblePower #TexasEnergy #PowerPlant #EnergySolutions #UnitedStates

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Valuating BESS in the continuous intraday market: rolling intrinsic A common and simple approach to valuate BESS is to optimize on a price index like ID1. I like it as a proxy, but being "static" it ignores much of the market's dynamics. Check out the animation below. It really helped me to dig into market dynamics - showing trades being executed in time lapse across a couple of days  • prices for the same 15min products fluctuate significantly (allowing you to sell, buy back and re-sell your flex at times) • liquidity spikes just a few hours before delivery - there is much less activity (higher spreads!) beyond Daniel Oeltz and I developed a rolling intrinsic valuation approach to explicitly include the value from repeated re-optimization as well as bid/ask spreads 👉 Download at https://lnkd.in/eXmF3YPS #BESS #RIVACON #PowerTrading

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Walking around Chicago with two pods on, I kept circling this: what if “asset-light only” is the wrong filter? Try this inversion—ban EBITDA. If you valued only on EBIT/FCF after maintenance capex, would the deal still sing? Deal Physics™ : • Heavy as a feature: When capex buys availability + reliability, customers stick, cash conversion improves, and the buyer set widens at exit. • Regulatory assets compound: HEICO—an aerospace components company known for FAA-approved replacement parts (PMAs) and a decades-long cadence of small bolt-ons—shows how permission + process can turn “heavy” into durable runway when you stay disciplined on price and integration. • Owner earnings over optics: If payback clears without flattering EBITDA, asset intensity might be advantage, not risk. Where have you seen heavy become moat, and what single metric proved the capex was productive (not busy)—payback, renewal %, uptime, density? Shoutout: Steve Divitkos (Mineola Search Partners, “Rethinking Asset Intensity in Search Fund Acquisitions”), We Study Billionaires HEICO deep dive, and Eric Mendelson’s HEICO talk at Miami Herbert—you informed this post and pushed me to ask this question. #ETA #SearchFunds #PrivateEquity #AssetIntensity #OwnerEarnings #CapitalAllocation #RegulatoryMoats #StructuralForces #DealPhysics #FirstPrinciples

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Exciting news from our US team: The AES Corporation and Meta have signed two long-term agreements to deliver 650 MW of energy in Texas and Kansas. ☀️⚡​​This strategic partnership will power Meta's data centers with reliable, competitive energy – supporting their sustainability goals.​ At AES, we are proud to be the energy partner of choice for the world’s most innovative companies, delivering fast and flexible solutions tailored to their needs. https://lnkd.in/epebpf9p

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NextEra Energy highlights that natural gas power plants can only meet a small fraction of the unprecedented electricity demand growth expected through the end of the decade. I agree with NextEra CEO John Ketchum—our energy future depends on a diverse mix of power sources, including renewables, natural gas, and nuclear. This article is worth reading to understand the critical role renewable energy tax credits play in shaping the nation's energy landscape. https://bloom.bg/3YEeHwO

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