The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity
Ending biodiversity loss
Land conversion is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity in the modern world. In two related papers, the amount of unconverted land and the degree of connectivity among landscapes were measured, painting a clear picture of both what needs to be protected and the urgency of this task (see the Perspective by McGuire and Shipley). Allan et al. found that 44% of terrestrial land must be ecologically sound to prevent major biodiversity losses. Brennan et al. found that the most important connectivity routes among protected areas remain threatened by conversion. In both cases, the authors emphasize that much of the needed area is occupied by human populations, emphasizing the importance of improving sustainable cohabitation and ecosystem protection in these regions. —SNV
Abstract
Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Supplementary Materials
This PDF file includes:
References and Notes
1
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), “Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services” (IPBES secretariat, 2019).
2
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, “Long-term strategic directions to the 2050 vision for biodiversity, approaches to living in harmony with nature and preparation for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework” (CBD/COP/14/9, CBD, Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2018).
3
CBD, “X/2. Strategic plan for biodiversity 2011-2020” (CBD, 2011); www.cbd.int/decision/cop/?id=12268
4
F. W. Larsen, W. R. Turner, R. A. Mittermeier, Will protection of 17% of land by 2020 be enough to safeguard biodiversity and critical ecosystem services? Oryx 49, 74–79 (2014).
5
CBD, “First draft of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework” (UN Environment Programme, 2021); https://www.cbd.int/doc/c/abb5/591f/2e46096d3f0330b08ce87a45/wg2020-03-03-en.pdf.
6
M. Maron, J. S. Simmonds, J. E. M. Watson, Bold nature retention targets are essential for the global environment agenda. Nat. Ecol. Evol.2, 1194–1195 (2018).
7
S. L. Pimm, C. N. Jenkins, B. V. Li, How to protect half of Earth to ensure it protects sufficient biodiversity. Sci. Adv.4, eaat2616 (2018).
8
J. Baillie, Y.-P. Zhang, Space for nature. Science361, 1051 (2018).
9
E. Dinerstein, C. Vynne, E. Sala, A. R. Joshi, S. Fernando, T. E. Lovejoy, J. Mayorga, D. Olson, G. P. Asner, J. E. M. Baillie, N. D. Burgess, K. Burkart, R. F. Noss, Y. P. Zhang, A. Baccini, T. Birch, N. Hahn, L. N. Joppa, E. Wikramanayake, A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets. Sci. Adv.5, eaaw2869 (2019).
10
P. Visconti, S. H. M. Butchart, T. M. Brooks, P. F. Langhammer, D. Marnewick, S. Vergara, A. Yanosky, J. E. M. Watson, Protected area targets post-2020. Science364, 239–241 (2019).
11
K. R. Jones, C. J. Klein, H. S. Grantham, H. P. Possingham, B. S. Halpern, N. D. Burgess, S. H. M. Butchart, J. G. Robinson, N. Kingston, J. E. M. Watson, Area requirements to safeguard Earth’s marine species. bioRxiv 808790 [Preprint]. 17 October 2019.
12
E. Sala, J. Mayorga, D. Bradley, R. B. Cabral, T. B. Atwood, A. Auber, W. Cheung, C. Costello, F. Ferretti, A. M. Friedlander, S. D. Gaines, C. Garilao, W. Goodell, B. S. Halpern, A. Hinson, K. Kaschner, K. Kesner-Reyes, F. Leprieur, J. McGowan, L. E. Morgan, D. Mouillot, J. Palacios-Abrantes, H. P. Possingham, K. D. Rechberger, B. Worm, J. Lubchenco, Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate. Nature592, 397–402 (2021).
13
C. Boyd, T. M. Brooks, S. H. M. Butchart, G. J. Edgar, G. A. B. Da Fonseca, F. Hawkins, M. Hoffmann, W. Sechrest, S. N. Stuart, P. P. Van Dijk, Spatial scale and the conservation of threatened species. Conserv. Lett.1, 37–43 (2008).
14
K. Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist (Chelsea Green, 2017).
15
O. Venter, R. A. Fuller, D. B. Segan, J. Carwardine, T. Brooks, S. H. M. Butchart, M. Di Marco, T. Iwamura, L. Joseph, D. O’Grady, H. P. Possingham, C. Rondinini, R. J. Smith, M. Venter, J. E. M. Watson, Targeting global protected area expansion for imperiled biodiversity. PLOS Biol.12, e1001891 (2014).
16
S. H. M. Butchart, M. Clarke, R. J. Smith, R. E. Sykes, J. P. W. Scharlemann, M. Harfoot, G. M. Buchanan, A. Angulo, A. Balmford, B. Bertzky, T. M. Brooks, K. E. Carpenter, M. T. Comeros-Raynal, J. Cornell, G. F. Ficetola, L. D. C. Fishpool, R. A. Fuller, J. Geldmann, H. Harwell, C. Hilton-Taylor, M. Hoffmann, A. Joolia, L. Joppa, N. Kingston, I. May, A. Milam, B. Polidoro, G. Ralph, N. Richman, C. Rondinini, D. B. Segan, B. Skolnik, M. D. Spalding, S. N. Stuart, A. Symes, J. Taylor, P. Visconti, J. E. M. Watson, L. Wood, N. D. Burgess, Shortfalls and Solutions for Meeting National and Global Conservation Area Targets. Conserv. Lett.8, 329–337 (2015).
17
M. Jung, A. Arnell, X. de Lamo, S. García-Rangel, M. Lewis, J. Mark, C. Merow, L. Miles, I. Ondo, S. Pironon, C. Ravilious, M. Rivers, D. Schepaschenko, O. Tallowin, A. van Soesbergen, R. Govaerts, B. L. Boyle, B. J. Enquist, X. Feng, R. Gallagher, B. Maitner, S. Meiri, M. Mulligan, G. Ofer, U. Roll, J. O. Hanson, W. Jetz, M. Di Marco, J. McGowan, D. S. Rinnan, J. D. Sachs, M. Lesiv, V. M. Adams, S. C. Andrew, J. R. Burger, L. Hannah, P. A. Marquet, J. K. McCarthy, N. Morueta-Holme, E. A. Newman, D. S. Park, P. R. Roehrdanz, J.-C. Svenning, C. Violle, J. J. Wieringa, G. Wynne, S. Fritz, B. B. N. Strassburg, M. Obersteiner, V. Kapos, N. Burgess, G. Schmidt-Traub, P. Visconti, Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water. Nat. Ecol. Evol.5, 1499–1509 (2021).
18
International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “A global standard for the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas” (IUCN, 2016).
19
J. E. M. Watson, O. Venter, J. Lee, K. R. Jones, J. G. Robinson, H. P. Possingham, J. R. Allan, Protect the last of the wild. Nature563, 27–30 (2018).
20
M. E. Soulé, B. G. Mackey, H. F. Recher, J. E. Williams, J. C. Z. Woinarski, D. Driscoll, W. C. Dennison, M. E. Jones, The role of connectivity in Australian conservation. Pac. Conserv. Biol.10, 266–279 (2004).
21
M. Di Marco, S. Ferrier, T. D. Harwood, A. J. Hoskins, J. E. M. Watson, Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity. Nature573, 582–585 (2019).
22
C. S. Mantyka-Pringle, P. Visconti, M. Di Marco, T. G. Martin, C. Rondinini, J. R. Rhodes, Climate change modifies risk of global biodiversity loss due to land-cover change. Biol. Conserv.187, 103–111 (2015).
23
Y. Pan, R. A. Birdsey, J. Fang, R. Houghton, P. E. Kauppi, W. A. Kurz, O. L. Phillips, A. Shvidenko, S. L. Lewis, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R. B. Jackson, S. W. Pacala, A. D. McGuire, S. Piao, A. Rautiainen, S. Sitch, D. Hayes, A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science333, 988–993 (2011).
24
C. T. Lamb, M. Festa-Bianchet, M. S. Boyce, Invest long term in Canada’s wilderness. Science359, 1002 (2018).
25
G. Sampaio, C. Nobre, M. H. Costa, P. Satyamurty, B. S. Soares-Filho, M. Cardoso, Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L17709 (2007).
26
R. J. Smith, L. Bennun, T. M. Brooks, S. H. M. Butchart, A. Cuttelod, M. Di Marco, S. Ferrier, L. D. C. Fishpool, L. Joppa, D. Juffe-Bignoli, A. T. Knight, J. F. Lamoreux, P. Langhammer, H. P. Possingham, C. Rondinini, P. Visconti, J. E. M. Watson, S. Woodley, L. Boitani, N. D. Burgess, N. De Silva, N. Dudley, F. Fivaz, E. T. Game, C. Groves, M. Lötter, J. McGowan, A. J. Plumptre, A. G. Rebelo, J. P. Rodriguez, C. A. de M. Scaramuzza, Synergies between the key biodiversity area and systematic conservation planning approaches. Conserv. Lett.12, e12625 (2019).
27
J. E. M. Watson, D. F. Shanahan, M. Di Marco, J. Allan, W. F. Laurance, E. W. Sanderson, B. Mackey, O. Venter, Catastrophic declines in wilderness areas undermine global environment targets. Curr. Biol.26, 2929–2934 (2016).
28
P. Kullberg, E. Di Minin, A. Moilanen, Using key biodiversity areas to guide effective expansion of the global protected area network. Glob. Ecol. Conserv.20, e00768 (2019).
29
R. F. Noss, C. Carroll, K. Vance-Borland, G. Wuerthner, A Multicriteria Assessment of the Irreplaceability and Vulnerability of Sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Conserv. Biol.16, 895–908 (2002).
30
A. S. Kukkala, A. Moilanen, Core concepts of spatial prioritisation in systematic conservation planning. Biol. Rev.88, 443–464 (2013).
31
IUCN, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, World Database on Protected Areas, vol. 2020; https://www.protectedplanet.net/en.
32
Birdlife International, World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas, vol. 2019; https://www.keybiodiversityareas.org.
33
J. R. Allan, O. Venter, J. E. M. Watson, Temporally inter-comparable maps of terrestrial wilderness and the Last of the Wild. Sci. Data4, 170187 (2017).
34
A. S. L. Rodrigues, S. J. Andelman, M. I. Bakarr, L. Boitani, T. M. Brooks, R. M. Cowling, L. D. C. Fishpool, G. A. B. Da Fonseca, K. J. Gaston, M. Hoffmann, J. S. Long, P. A. Marquet, J. D. Pilgrim, R. L. Pressey, J. Schipper, W. Sechrest, S. N. Stuart, L. G. Underhill, R. W. Waller, M. E. J. Watts, X. Yan, Effectiveness of the global protected area network in representing species diversity. Nature428, 640–643 (2004).
35
D. N. Olson, E. Dinerstein, E. D. Wikramanayake, N. D. Burgess, G. V. N. Powell, E. C. Underwood, J. A. D’amico, I. Itoua, H. E. Strand, J. C. Morrison, C. J. Loucks, T. F. Allnutt, T. H. Ricketts, Y. Kura, J. F. Lamoreux, W. W. Wettengel, P. Hedao, K. R. Kassem, Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth. Bioscience51, 933–938 (2001).
36
E. Sacre, M. Bode, R. Weeks, R. L. Pressey, The context dependence of frontier versus wilderness conservation priorities. Conserv. Lett.12, e12632 (2019).
37
J. R. Allan, J. E. M. Watson, M. Di Marco, C. J. O’Bryan, H. P. Possingham, S. C. Atkinson, O. Venter, Hotspots of human impact on threatened terrestrial vertebrates. PLOS Biol.17, e3000158 (2019).
38
K. F. Davis, H. I. Koo, J. Dell’Angelo, P. D’Odorico, L. Estes, L. J. Kehoe, M. Kharratzadeh, T. Kuemmerle, D. Machava, A. J. R. Pais, N. Ribeiro, M. C. Rulli, M. Tatlhego, Tropical forest loss enhanced by large-scale land acquisitions. Nat. Geosci.13, 482–488 (2020).
39
G. C. Hurtt, L. Chini, R. Sahajpal, S. Frolking, B. L. Bodirsky, K. Calvin, J. C. Doelman, J. Fisk, S. Fujimori, K. Klein Goldewijk, T. Hasegawa, P. Havlik, A. Heinimann, F. Humpenöder, J. Jungclaus, J. O. Kaplan, J. Kennedy, T. Krisztin, D. Lawrence, P. Lawrence, L. Ma, O. Mertz, J. Pongratz, A. Popp, B. Poulter, K. Riahi, E. Shevliakova, E. Stehfest, P. Thornton, F. N. Tubiello, D. P. van Vuuren, X. Zhang, Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev.13, 5425–5464 (2020).
40
B. C. O’Neill, E. Kriegler, K. L. Ebi, E. Kemp-Benedict, K. Riahi, D. S. Rothman, B. J. van Ruijven, D. P. van Vuuren, J. Birkmann, K. Kok, M. Levy, W. Solecki, The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change42, 169–180 (2017).
41
D. P. van Vuuren, J. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G. C. Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Masui, M. Meinshausen, N. Nakicenovic, S. J. Smith, S. K. Rose, The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Clim. Change109, 5–31 (2011).
42
A. N. Rose, J. J. McKee, M. L. Urban, E. A. Bright, K. M. Sims, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, LandScan 2018 Count, ArcGIS REST Services Directory (2019); https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/arcgis/rest/services/ciesin/popgrid_counts/MapServer/8.
43
D. Brockington, J. Igoe, K. Schmidt-Soltau, Conservation, human rights, and poverty reduction. Conserv. Biol.20, 250–252 (2006).
44
D. Brockington, J. Igoe, Eviction for Conservation: A Global Overview. Conserv. Soc.4, 424–470 (2006).
45
R. Duffy, F. Massé, E. Smidt, E. Marijnen, B. Büscher, J. Verweijen, M. Ramutsindela, T. Simlai, L. Joanny, E. Lunstrum, Why we must question the militarisation of conservation. Biol. Conserv.232, 66–73 (2019).
46
E. Lee, Protected Areas, Country and Value: The Nature–Culture Tyranny of the IUCN’s Protected Area Guidelines for Indigenous Australians. Antipode48, 355–374 (2016).
47
“Embedding human rights in nature conservation: From intent to action. Report of the Independent Panel of Experts of the Independent Review of allegations raised in the media regarding human rights violations in the context of WWF’s conservation work” (World Wide Fund for Nature, 2020).
48
Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI), “Estimated area of land and territories of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and Afro-descendants where their rights are not recognized” (RRI, 2020).
49
RRI, “The opportunity framework: Identifying opportunities to invest in securing collective tenure rights in the forest areas of low- and middle-income countries” (RRI, 2020).
50
RRI, “Rights-based conservation: The path to preserving Earth’s biological and cultural diversity?” (RRI, 2020); https://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/uploads/Final_Rights_Conservation_RRI_07-21-2021.pdf.
51
Forest Peoples Programme, International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity, Indigenous Women’s Biodiversity Network, Centres of Distinction on Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, “Local Biodiversity Outlooks 2: The contributions of Indigenous peoples and local communities to the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 and to renewing nature and cultures. A complement to the fifth edition of Global Biodiversity Outlook” (Forest Peoples Programme, 2020).
52
D. Moran, K. Kanemoto, Identifying species threat hotspots from global supply chains. Nat. Ecol. Evol.1, 23 (2017).
53
J. Schleicher, J. G. Zaehringer, C. Fastré, B. Vira, P. Visconti, C. Sandbrook, Protecting half of the planet could directly affect over one billion people. Nat. Sustain.2, 1094–1096 (2019).
54
G. W. Luck, A review of the relationships between human population density and biodiversity. Biol. Rev.82, 607–645 (2007).
55
R. P. Cincotta, J. Wisnewski, R. Engelman, Human population in the biodiversity hotspots. Nature404, 990–992 (2000).
56
N. Myers, R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. Mittermeier, G. A. B. da Fonseca, J. Kent, Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature403, 853–858 (2000).
57
E. P. Odum, H. T. Odum, Natural areas as necessary components of man’s total environment. Trans. North Am. Wildl. Nat. Res. Conf.37, 178–189 (1972).
58
CBD, “Zero draft of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework” (CBD/WG2020/2/3, CBD, 2020).
59
J. E. M. Watson, T. Evans, O. Venter, B. Williams, A. Tulloch, C. Stewart, I. Thompson, J. C. Ray, K. Murray, A. Salazar, C. McAlpine, P. Potapov, J. Walston, J. G. Robinson, M. Painter, D. Wilkie, C. Filardi, W. F. Laurance, R. A. Houghton, S. Maxwell, H. Grantham, C. Samper, S. Wang, L. Laestadius, R. K. Runting, G. A. Silva-Chávez, J. Ervin, D. Lindenmayer, The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems. Nat. Ecol. Evol.2, 599–610 (2018).
60
A. R. Renwick, M. Bode, O. Venter, Reserves in Context: Planning for Leakage from Protected Areas. PLOS ONE10, e0129441 (2015).
61
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Fund for the Development of the Indigenous Peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean, “Forest governance by Indigenous and tribal peoples. An opportunity for climate action in Latin America and the Caribbean” (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, 2021).
62
C. Corson, I. Flores-Ganley, J. Worcester, S. Rogers, From paper to practice? Assembling a rights-based conservation approach. J. Polit. Ecol.27, 1128–1147 (2020).
63
V. Tauli-Corpuz, J. Alcorn, A. Molnar, C. Healy, E. Barrow, Cornered by PAs: Adopting rights-based approaches to enable cost-effective conservation and climate action. World Dev.130, 104923 (2020).
64
ICCA Consortium, “Territories of Life: 2021 report” (ICCA Consortium, 2021); http://report.territoriesoflife.org/.
65
N. M. Dawson, B. Coolsaet, E. J. Sterling, R. Loveridge, N. D. Gross-Camp, S. Wongbusarakum, K. K. Sangha, L. M. Scherl, H. P. Phan, N. Zafra-Calvo, W. G. Lavey, P. Byakagaba, C. J. Idrobo, A. Chenet, N. J. Bennett, S. Mansourian, F. J. Rosado-May, The role of Indigenous peoples and local communities in effective and equitable conservation. Ecol. Soc.26, art19 (2021).
66
P. Franks, “Global Biodiversity Framework: equitable governance is key” (International Institute for Environment and Development, 2021); https://pubs.iied.org/20386IIED
67
CBD, Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, “Agenda item 24. COP/DEC/14/8,” presented at the 14th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, 17 to 29 November 2018.
68
W. N. S. Arlidge, J. W. Bull, P. F. E. Addison, M. J. Burgass, D. Gianuca, T. M. Gorham, C. Jacob, N. Shumway, S. P. Sinclair, J. E. M. Watson, C. Wilcox, E. J. Milner-Gulland, A Global Mitigation Hierarchy for Nature Conservation. Bioscience68, 336–347 (2018).
69
International Finance Corporation (IFC), “Performance standard 6. Biodiversity and sustainable management of living natural resources” (IFC, 2012).
70
P. McElwee, E. Turnout, M. Chiroleu-Assouline, J. Clapp, C. Isenhour, T. Jackson, E. Kelemen, D. C. Miller, G. Rusch, J. H. Spangenberg, A. Waldron, R. J. Baumgartner, B. Bleys, M. W. Howard, E. Mungatana, H. Ngo, I. Ring, R. Santos, Ensuring a Post-COVID Economic Agenda Tackles Global Biodiversity Loss. One Earth3, 448–461 (2020).
71
J. Dempsey, T. G. Martin, U. R. Sumaila, Subsidizing extinction?Conserv. Lett.13, e12705 (2020).
72
United Nations, “Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Rio Declaration on Environment and Development” (A/CONF.151/26 Vol. I, United Nations, 1992).
73
United Nations, “Paris agreement (United Nations). December 2015,” (United Nations, 2015).
74
C. Armstrong, Sharing conservation burdens fairly. Conserv. Biol.33, 554–560 (2019).
75
J. R. Allan, N. Levin, K. R. Jones, S. Abdullah, J. Hongoh, V. Hermoso, S. Kark, Navigating the complexities of coordinated conservation along the river Nile. Sci. Adv.5, eaau7668 (2019).
76
M. Di Marco, T. D. Harwood, A. J. Hoskins, C. Ware, S. L. L. Hill, S. Ferrier, Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling. Glob. Change Biol.25, 2763–2778 (2019).
77
R. Ponce-Reyes, A. J. Plumptre, D. Segan, S. Ayebare, R. A. Fuller, H. P. Possingham, J. E. M. Watson, Forecasting ecosystem responses to climate change across Africa’s Albertine Rift. Biol. Conserv.209, 464–472 (2017).
78
B. Büscher, R. Fletcher, D. Brockington, C. Sandbrook, W. M. Adams, L. Campbell, C. Corson, W. Dressler, R. Duffy, N. Gray, G. Holmes, A. Kelly, E. Lunstrum, M. Ramutsindela, K. Shanker, Half-Earth or Whole Earth? Radical ideas for conservation, and their implications. Oryx51, 407–410 (2016).
79
H. M. Tallis, P. L. Hawthorne, S. Polasky, J. Reid, M. W. Beck, K. Brauman, J. M. Bielicki, S. Binder, M. G. Burgess, E. Cassidy, A. Clark, J. Fargione, E. T. Game, J. Gerber, F. Isbell, J. Kiesecker, R. McDonald, M. Metian, J. L. Molnar, N. D. Mueller, C. O’Connell, D. Ovando, M. Troell, T. M. Boucher, B. McPeek, An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Front. Ecol. Environ.16, 563–570 (2018).
80
D. Leclère, M. Obersteiner, M. Barrett, S. H. M. Butchart, A. Chaudhary, A. De Palma, F. A. J. DeClerck, M. Di Marco, J. C. Doelman, M. Dürauer, R. Freeman, M. Harfoot, T. Hasegawa, S. Hellweg, J. P. Hilbers, S. L. L. Hill, F. Humpenöder, N. Jennings, T. Krisztin, G. M. Mace, H. Ohashi, A. Popp, A. Purvis, A. M. Schipper, A. Tabeau, H. Valin, H. van Meijl, W.-J. van Zeist, P. Visconti, R. Alkemade, R. Almond, G. Bunting, N. D. Burgess, S. E. Cornell, F. Di Fulvio, S. Ferrier, S. Fritz, S. Fujimori, M. Grooten, T. Harwood, P. Havlík, M. Herrero, A. J. Hoskins, M. Jung, T. Kram, H. Lotze-Campen, T. Matsui, C. Meyer, D. Nel, T. Newbold, G. Schmidt-Traub, E. Stehfest, B. B. N. Strassburg, D. P. van Vuuren, C. Ware, J. E. M. Watson, W. Wu, L. Young, Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. Nature585, 551–556 (2020).
81
E. Crist, C. Mora, R. Engelman, The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiversity protection. Science356, 260–264 (2017).
82
S. Díaz, J. Settele, E. S. Brondízio, H. T. Ngo, J. Agard, A. Arneth, P. Balvanera, K. A. Brauman, S. H. M. Butchart, K. M. A. Chan, L. A. Garibaldi, K. Ichii, J. Liu, S. M. Subramanian, G. F. Midgley, P. Miloslavich, Z. Molnár, D. Obura, A. Pfaff, S. Polasky, A. Purvis, J. Razzaque, B. Reyers, R. R. Chowdhury, Y.-J. Shin, I. Visseren-Hamakers, K. J. Willis, C. N. Zayas, Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change. Science366, eaax3100 (2019).
83
J. R. Allan, H. P. Possingham, S. C. Atkinson, A. Waldron, M. Di Marco, S. H. M. Butchart, V. M. Adams, W. D. Kissling, T. Worsdell, C. Sandbrook, G. Gibbon, K. Kumar, P. Mehta, M. Maron, B. A. Williams, K. R. Jones, B. A. Wintle, A. E. Reside, J. E. M. Watson, The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity, Dryad (2022);
84
P. F. Donald, L. D. C. Fishpool, A. Ajagbe, L. A. Bennun, G. Bunting, I. J. Burfield, S. H. M. Butchart, S. Capellan, M. J. Crosby, M. P. Dias, D. Diaz, M. Evans, R. Grimmett, M. Heath, V. R. Jones, B. G. Lascelles, J. C. Merriman, M. O’Brien, I. Ramírez, Z. Waliczky, D. C. Wege, Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs): The development and characteristics of a global inventory of key sites for biodiversity. Bird Conserv. Int.29, 177–198 (2019).
85
T. H. Ricketts, E. Dinerstein, T. Boucher, T. M. Brooks, S. H. M. Butchart, M. Hoffmann, J. F. Lamoreux, J. Morrison, M. Parr, J. D. Pilgrim, A. S. L. Rodrigues, W. Sechrest, G. E. Wallace, K. Berlin, J. Bielby, N. D. Burgess, D. R. Church, N. Cox, D. Knox, C. Loucks, G. W. Luck, L. L. Master, R. Moore, R. Naidoo, R. Ridgely, G. E. Schatz, G. Shire, H. Strand, W. Wettengel, E. Wikramanayake, Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.102, 18497–18501 (2005).
86
IUCN, IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, version 2017 (2017); https://www.iucnredlist.org.
87
Birdlife International, Handbook of the Birds of the World, “Bird species distribution maps of the world,” version 2020.1 (2020).
88
U. Roll, A. Feldman, M. Novosolov, A. Allison, A. M. Bauer, R. Bernard, M. Böhm, F. Castro-Herrera, L. Chirio, B. Collen, G. R. Colli, L. Dabool, I. Das, T. M. Doan, L. L. Grismer, M. Hoogmoed, Y. Itescu, F. Kraus, M. LeBreton, A. Lewin, M. Martins, E. Maza, D. Meirte, Z. T. Nagy, C. de C Nogueira, O. S. G. Pauwels, D. Pincheira-Donoso, G. D. Powney, R. Sindaco, O. J. S. Tallowin, O. Torres-Carvajal, J. F. Trape, E. Vidan, P. Uetz, P. Wagner, Y. Wang, C. D. L. Orme, R. Grenyer, S. Meiri, The global distribution of tetrapods reveals a need for targeted reptile conservation. Nat. Ecol. Evol.1, 1677–1682 (2017).
89
S. Mogg, C. Fastre, M. Jung, P. Visconti, Targeted expansion of protected areas to maximise the persistence of terrestrial mammals.bioRxiv608992 [Preprint]. 2 August 2019.
90
K. Jantke, K. R. Jones, J. R. Allan, A. L. M. Chauvenet, J. E. M. Watson, H. P. Possingham, Poor ecological representation by an expensive reserve system: Evaluating 35 years of marine protected area expansion. Conserv. Lett.11, e12584 (2018).
91
H. L. Beyer, Y. Dujardin, M. E. Watts, H. P. Possingham, Solving conservation planning problems with integer linear programming. Ecol. Modell.328, 14–22 (2016).
92
M. Di Marco, J. E. M. Watson, H. P. Possingham, O. Venter, Limitations and trade-offs in the use of species distribution maps for protected area planning. J. Appl. Ecol.54, 402–411 (2017).
93
J. Cheok, R. L. Pressey, R. Weeks, S. Andréfouët, J. Moloney, Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation. PLOS ONE11, e0164869 (2016).
94
O. Venter, E. W. Sanderson, A. Magrach, J. R. Allan, J. Beher, K. R. Jones, H. P. Possingham, W. F. Laurance, P. Wood, B. M. Fekete, M. A. Levy, J. E. M. Watson, Global terrestrial Human Footprint maps for 1993 and 2009. Sci. Data3, 160067 (2016).
95
O. Venter, E. W. Sanderson, A. Magrach, J. R. Allan, J. Beher, K. R. Jones, H. P. Possingham, W. F. Laurance, P. Wood, B. M. Fekete, M. A. Levy, J. E. M. Watson, Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation. Nat. Commun.7, 12558 (2016).
96
R. Naidoo, T. Iwamura, Global-scale mapping of economic benefits from agricultural lands: Implications for conservation priorities. Biol. Conserv.140, 40–49 (2007).
97
ESA, Land Cover CCI: Product User Guide, Version 2, Tech. Rep. (UCL-Geomatics, 2017); https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download/ESACCI-LC-Ph2-PUGv2_2.0.pdf.
98
F. Montesino Pouzols, T. Toivonen, E. Di Minin, A. S. Kukkala, P. Kullberg, J. Kuusterä, J. Lehtomäki, H. Tenkanen, P. H. Verburg, A. Moilanen, Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism. Nature516, 383–386 (2014).
(0)eLetters
eLetters is an online forum for ongoing peer review. Submission of eLetters are open to all. eLetters are not edited, proofread, or indexed. Please read our Terms of Service before submitting your own eLetter.
Log In to Submit a ResponseNo eLetters have been published for this article yet.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Science
Volume 376 | Issue 6597
3 June 2022
3 June 2022
Copyright
Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
Submission history
Received: 13 August 2021
Accepted: 11 April 2022
Published in print: 3 June 2022
Acknowledgments
We thank P. Brehony, P. Tyrell, O. Venter, and P. Visconti for thoughtful comments on the manuscript.
Funding: M.D.M. acknowledges support from the MUR Rita Levi Montalcini program. W.D.K. acknowledges a University of Amsterdam (UvA) starting grant and financial support from the UvA Faculty Research Cluster “Global Ecology.” J.R.A. acknowledges support from Koobi Carbon.
Author contributions: J.R.A., T.W., S.C.A., J.E.M.W., and H.P.P. framed the study. J.R.A., S.C.A., M.D.M., G.G., and P.M. performed the analyses. J.R.A., H.P.P., S.C.A., A.W., M.D.M., S.H.M.B., V.M.A., W.D.K., T.W., C.S., G.G., K.K., P.M., M.M., B.A.Wil., K.R.J., B.A.Win., A.E.R., and J.E.M.W. discussed and interpreted the results and helped write the manuscript. J.R.A. wrote the manuscript with support from all authors.
Competing interests: The authors declare no financial competing interests. The authors who work for the Wildlife Conservation Society acknowledge that wilderness conservation is part of their organization’s agenda. Similarly, the authors from BirdLife International acknowledge that Key Biodiversity Areas are part of their organizational agenda.
Data and materials availability: All data developed in this paper (the spatial scenarios) are freely available at Dryad (83). All other data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper or the supplementary materials.
License information: Copyright © 2022 the authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original US government works. https://www.science.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- Dynamic priorities for conserving species, Science, 376, 6597, (1048-1049), (2022)./doi/10.1126/science.abq0788
- Transformational changes for achieving the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework ecological connectivity goals, FACETS, 7, (1008-1027), (2022).https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2022-0003
- A scale-linked conservation planning framework for freshwater ecosystems, Landscape Ecology, 37, 10, (2589-2605), (2022).https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-022-01505-w
- Economic value of nature via healthcare savings and productivity increases, Biological Conservation, 272, (109665), (2022).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109665
Loading...
View Options
Check Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS Members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your AAAS ID
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
Log in via OpenAthens.
Log in via Shibboleth.
More options
Purchase digital access to this article
Download and print this article for your personal scholarly, research, and educational use.
Buy a single issue of Science for just $15 USD.