DE-FENSE!.... DE-FENSE! ... DE-FENSE!

The brass down at 1 Bills Drive got it right. Three rounds into the NFL draft (the fourth round will be underway before I finish this post), and the Bills went against the sexy suggetions being whispered -- and in some cases screamed -- at them to make some noise with a QB. They addressed by far the biggest need with three guys who can compete for playing time this year. Best of all, they really can't be blamed for doing so even if any of them turn out to be a bust.

First Round: Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama

Love. This. Pick. First of all, I have to thank Carolina for doing what I think they should not have done and reached on Cam Newton with the No. 1 overall pick. If he was still on the board, I don't know that Buffalo would've done the right thing and passed on him, too. Secondly, thank you, Denver, for taking Von Miller. Now, I like Miller and think he could end up with more gaudy numbers than Dareus next season, but the fresh memories of Aaron Maybin's flop soured me on taking a 230-pound (small) edge-guy with no move other than speed.

Dareus can play DE in the 3-4. He can slide to nose tackle to spell Kyle Williams and take advantage of some one-on-one matchups here and there. He's a beast with feet that put him a year away from being elite. If the Bills decide to go 4-3, he can stay on the field at either position. Though he won't be a big sack guy, he'll put pressure and force QBs to get rid of the ball early. I can't think of a more versatile Bills defensive lineman in the last 20 years (Bruce Smith was a great pass rusher and better than average agaisnt the run, but didn't have the size to play NT, too).

It wasn't just the safest pick, it was the only pick.

Text highlight from my buddy Dan: "Really waiting for them to trade that pick and take a running back." As funny as it was scary.

Second Round: Aaron Williams, C/S, Texas

This is the only pick so far I'm not thrilled about. I was high on filling that linebacker need here with Akeem Ayers out of UCLA who went shortly after. Williams has all the physical tools and his biggest upside is his versatility. He's big enough to play safety and skilled enough to be a cover corner. With five DBs possibly not returning next season, Buffalo needs a guy they can use in multiple spots. He should be an immediate impact on special teams. I just pray Ayers doesn't blow up with Tennessee.

Coulda's: Three QBs coulda been taken here, and time will tell, as it tends to do. A little surprised they balked on Colin Kaepernick (most Newton-like potential without reaching). Dalton's the lesser athlete and isn't an upgrade on his best day. With a young team llike this, Ryan Mallett is even more of a risk, so I'm glad they didn't go that way.

Third Round: Kevin Sheppard, ILB, LSU

Again, fills a need and he's an athlete that, whether he gets on the field this year or not, is an immediate producer on special teams. The linebacking group could be solid (starters like Arthur Moats, Poz, Merriman, Chris Kelsey), but it's not deep and the injury bug hits the Bills worse than the flu hits a third-grade class. He's a true inside linebacker, which is the thinnest spot in the group. With third-rounders, a solid backup is just fine by me.

There's no other position I would've gone with at this spot, so unless an LB that was taken later (Mason Foster went to the Bucs 84th overall) ends up stealing the show, I like the call.

Fourth Round: Da'Norris Searcy, S, North Carolina

This pick literally just came in and I'm not well-read on who this kid is, but they stayed defense and went with a position that could be extremely weak if free agency cleans it out. Not tall (only 5-foot-10 and change) but big enough (223 pounds) to do the job. I doubt he'll have to play this year, so adding depth and special teams play is fine by me.

Clint Boling -- offensive guard out of Georgia -- went next to the Bengals and I would've been happy with that fit in Buffalo with the O-line being so up-in-the-air. He's going to be the guy I judge this pick by. His odds of being a starter in Cincy (or in Buffalo had they gone that way) are greater than Searcy ever being a regular in the secondary. It's not a direct comparison because they're completely different positions, but that could turn out to be a big miss. I hope this wasn't a McCargo-esque reach.

Fourth Round: Chris Hairston, OT, Clemson

Not the talent that Boling is, but finally addresses the need at the tackle position. He has size to spare (6-6, 326) and played in a tough ACC against some elite pass rushers. Probably a project and most likely insurance for either tackle spot, I'm always a fan of size and raw athletic ability in the later rounds that can be molded to make up for lack of experience. Low risk at this point, but low expectations, too.

Fifth Round: Johnny White, RB, North Carolina

CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Quinton Ganther make up the running back depth chart right now, and it's pretty solid. He's not going to push either of those top two, so perhaps he's an upgrade from Ganther, whom I think is a solid No. 3. I wonder if this is in preparation for not bringing back Jackson (or trading him) in the near future to make Spiller the feature back. I like Jackson, but I hope that's the case. You don't spend the No. 9 pick on a guy to be a backup.

White's more of a bruiser at 5-10, 210 pounds and could be the change-of-pace back down the road. This pick is only good if they have a plan for it beyond this season. Otherwise it's a luxury they can't afford.

Notes around the league: These four QBs going in the top 12 is a joke, but my money is on Locker to be the best of the bunch. He's got a running game and some good young receivers, and he can sit for a year... Ponder has those things, too, in Minnesota (who also took TE Kyle Rudolph in the 2nd round), but he might be thrown to the wolves this year... Colin Kaepernick is a steal for the 49ers... Nick Fairley + Ndamukong Suh = 6 to 8 years of wow (2nd-favorite pick of the first round)... Winners so far: Bills, Bengals, 49ers, Buccaneers, Browns ... Losers so far: Jimmy Clausen, Roger Goodell, the fans, Patriots.

Manny Ramirez gave the world one last gift — an unbelievable, unforgettable "You can't see me, I didn't do anything bad" exit with the only warning coming from the league office to the Rays saying they should change the line-up card.

While not the biggest news -- or surprise, for that matter -- of the last 30-some hours, it clearly surpassed the Masters and it's four or five storylines as the biggest talker among sports media talkers.

So after working at the paper on Mondays, I tend bar at a little Italian place that at this point will remain nameless. Mondays tend to be on the slow side, which opens the door for me and my boss Ryan -- an avid Philly-teams fan and sports junkie in general -- to go back and forth on topics while 'Rome is Burning,' 'Around the Horn,' and 'PTI' are on the bar TVs over my shoulder with the closed captioning on. (Can't compete with that classic Italian tunes that we jam out to over. And over. And over. And over ...)

Either way, Man-Ram set the stage for Ryan and I to banter for about 60-70 percent of my shift. I kicked it off with a tweet to the world and a question to Ryan -- "If guys like Manny and Barry and Roger and McGwire with their ballooned stats and ballooned heads made the steroid era forgettable from a Hall of Fame standpoint, does that make a guy like Fred McGriff more likely to earn a spot in Cooperstown?"

I'm of the mindset that anyone connected with steroids -- and by that I mean 'caught' -- should not be voted into the Hall with the likes of Ruth, Aaron and Ryan. Verdict is stil out on Bonds (literally). While it's all-but obvious that Barroid was juiced, he's never been caught. Never been suspended. And to this point has never lied about it (in a legal sense). I'll get into a Barry discussion another time. We both agreed Manny blew his ticket to the Hall away when this went down.

But my question still stands: If the steroid era makes gaudy numbers less impressive, does that mean that Fred McGriff's 493 career home runs and impessive-yet modest .284 batting average more so? There are more -- and likely better -- guys out there that are shy of the Hall to use in this situation, but I grew up a Braves fan, so this is happening.

When he finished his career in 2004, 500 home runs still meant something (yeah, he's still seven short, I know). No one has ever confused McGriff for a doper — the guy just did his job, and he did it better than most. He's in the top 50 in a handful of offensive categories and compares favorably to a number of already-there guys. He didn't dominate the way Man-Ram did, or even like other guys that weren't connected with 'roids. All he did was average 26 homers per season for 19 years. He never hit more than 36. He never won a batting title. He was just better than most.

So maybe he's not for the Hall, but I do think it makes his longevity and his production several times more impressive. Plus, where would AAU baseball be if he didn't endorse those Tom Emanski's videos? Would there ever have been "back-to-back-to-back AAU national championship teams?" I think not. Sure, his acting was worse than Raphael Palmeiro's on Capitol Hill, but he inspired a generation of people who were ready for video tapes to become obsolete to give it one more try.

Just about the time the Red Sox/Rays game came on -- (are you serious? Jonny Damon has more career hits than Chipper Jones?) -- I was telling Ryan how if Man-Ram were playing, that Sox fans should give him a standing ovation. To which Ryan replied, "Why?"

"He quit. He stopped playing," Ryan's face getting more confused at my logic, "He basically abandoned them."

All true statements, but the Red Sox knew way back when what they were buying. They bought a mercenary. Manny was all about the money from Day 1 and that never changed. He was a contract killer of baseballs, he doesn't owe any body anything but his production -- which he gave (most of the time). He found out how to make himself into a free agent while still under contract and he did it. Manny was never more Manny than he was in that last season in Boston. And if it had been reversed and he was coming from Los Angeles after seven or so Hall of Fame years and landing in Boston to help their penant chase, Red Sox fans would've swooned just like they did in Hollywood.

You pay for what you get, and, Boston, you got two World Series championships, one reversed curse, and, because of his greed, you also got to distance yourselves from the guy before he imploded as a steroid-using villain. While he lives the rest of his life without the fanfare of a bust in Cooperstown. You'll still have your wins and your rings.

And Fred McGriff, you'll always have my vote.

Syracuse has had some time off to recharge after a strong finish to the regular season, capping it with six straight victories. This afternoon, they take on a St. John's team that is lucky to still be around after a scare against pesky Rutgers.

This is my first go at blogging the Super Bowl, and I'm convinced this set-up couldn't be any better. I love this matchup. As even as they are, I was shocked the Pack is the morning-line favorite against a Steelers team that largely has been there and done that.

I predicted in today's paper that the Steelers would win in a close one, 28-24, but I think it's a coin toss. So to get things started, here's a basic "Team A will win if ..." and "Team B will win if ..."

Pittsburgh:
Rashard Mendenhall rushes for more than 100 yards. It means two things -- the Steelers are controllilng the clock, and that they must be in the lead because otherwise they'd be throwing it.

The defense scores* a touchdown. Aside from the obvious, I'll also accept a turnover that provides the offense with a field that's 20 yards or less to the end zone.

Aaron Rodgers throws more than 40 passes. This is the flipside to the Mendenhall piece -- if he's throwing that much it's because they're trying to play catch-up. See Packers vs. Cardinals in 2008 playoffs.

Green Bay:
Clay Matthews and the Packers defense registers at least six sacks. Big Ben Roethlisberger is hard to bring down once, so if they get constant pressure, they'll force turnovers, too.

Greg Jennings goes off. I mean really goes off. He's the guy the offense needs to play huge, not Rodgers. If he has 8-plus catches for 110-plus yards and two scores, I'd expect they'd come early and the Packers could be in front the whole way.

James Starks doesn't play like a rookie. He doesn't need 100 yards and a score, he just has to not make a play that reminds the world he's never been on anything close to that kind of stage. A modest day with no fumbles and maybe a few key blitz pick-ups will be plenty.

It's 4:33. I'm heading over to my sister's place for a Super Bowl party and will pick things up from there. Pumped for food. Pumped for commercials. And for once I'm actually buying in to all the hype of the actual game. Sidenote: I've got $100 on Christina Agulara holding "Brave" for more than six seconds.

6:13 -- Both teams just took the field and the party's settling in nicely. Apparently "The Dude Abides" dude is the voiceover of choice for Fox. I'm not mad about, just saying. And with that quick glimpse at of Christina Aguilera, I am supremely confident that I'm gonna be up a hundo before kickoff. She just looks like someone who needs to get every second of that note. Her future as a National Anthem singer at college bowl games of decreasing importance year to year depends on it.

Take a look back at this day in five years and track the success of Lea Michele and Aguilera. I'm guessing it will be similar to 1998 when Armageddon and Deep Impact both came out a few months apart. Didn't take five years to find out which was a bust.

6:26 -- $100.

6:32 -- Just scored an extra finski on the coin toss. Took heads because 50 percent of the time it works every time.

6:38 -- I've never seen that happen, but that could have been absolutely disastrous. Only upside would have been the usage of, "Well you can't win a game in the first quarter, but you can lose one." Still not sure what the difference is, but it sounds like the right thing to say.

Two drives in and two almost-big-plays that could've defined the game. Jordy Nelson could have done a ton if he halled that in from Rodgers down the sideline, but instead it'll be a footnote in the woulda, coulda, shoulda pile.

6:48 -- Like seeing the Steelers trying to get Mike Wallace involved early with one-step throws to him, basically a 15-yard handoff. But with a managable 3rd-and-2 play and for some reason they go away from using Mendenhall in that spot. Making those type of plays early on can be demoralizing to the defense, especially when they have a back-up center.

AND DORITOS TAKES THE EARLY LEAD. Nothing like awkward office cheese fetishes to set the tone. But all of a sudden, here comes Pepsi. Cans to the face with unintended racial undertones always make for hilarity right away, and social banter later.

Now I don't know if the Packers saw something in film that said Jordy Nelson would be a guy to look for, or if it's just coincidence, but it's working so far.

Commercials: 'Fast Five' just spent $3 million for a 30 second promo that will effectively leave them with $36 dollars of profit until it hits DVD.

-- Redemption for Jordy Nelson. Not sure it was the same play, but definitely the same spot on the field. The coverage was much better this time around, but Rodgers tossed a perfect ball and Nelson repayed his QB for going back to him. Packers lead, 7-0.

That drive went nine plays for 80 yards and was pretty text book. Starks is getting touches and keeping the Steelers honest, which is exactly what he needs to do. The Steelers are getting decent pressure, but are still a step behind Rodgers. The guy lives and dies in that half-step. He's not my favorite QB, but the guy can sling it.

7:05 -- There's the big play. Nick Collins just picked off a duck and took it back to the house to make it 14-0, Green Bay. If this was reversed, I'd be more inclined to say that this one's over. But I can't. The Steelers were down 13 against Baltimore and stormed back in the second half. Not the same, now, I know, but of the two teams, I'd say they're more likely to pull it off.

END OF THE FIRST QUARTER -- Packers 14, Steelers 0

So far, side conversations have included ingredients of cupcakes (apparently mayonaisse is a sleeper pick), electric cars, and paint swatches. People with kids and mortgages are fun. I can't wait to grow up.

The Steelers managed a field goal to at least get on the board. Ben looked sharper after getting a long run to close the first quarter -- maybe his comfort moment that snaps back into playing a regular game. Packers 14, Steelers 3.

7:44 -- The Steelers had a great opportunity to get back into it, but Ben tossed his second pick of the day. I said before the game that there would be four turnovers total, but I wouldn't have said Ben would have two INTs BEFORE HALFTIME. He looks entirely off his game.

Meanwhile, Rodgers is slingin' it like it's spring OTAs. Four plays later, he fires a bullet to Greg Jennings for another TD. Jennings' first catch and pays the price but the return on that purchase was worth it. Packers 21, Steelers 3.

With the score not so close, I brought in my nephew Nicholas in as a guest columnist:

"cjvjcvchgdxgghkjfj,ldfl,i;ja,ajaj klfdjsdl;m i,iid.,/i9;.dd//;/d..dd9i,lf

g49999555555t995599999999999499949pppp95555995559955999 9999955p5ppppppppppppppppppppp9999999999999pp98r8 ghhg21- 3330300  000111165."

He's 16 months old.

While that was going on, Roethlisberger showed signs of life with a nice drive sparked by a big play by Antwaan Randle El. I wasn't sure he was still in the Steelers' regular rotation, but he came up huge on that drive that culminated in a Roethlisberger-to-Hines-Ward touchdown pass with a half-minute left in the first half. Packers 21, Steelers 10.

END OF FIRST HALF -- Packers 21, Steelers 10

Not what I expected, but not surprising either. Rodgers right now is out-Roethlisbergering Roethlisbeger with an efficient first half (11 for 16 for 137 yards and two touchdowns). Meanwhile, Ben (13 for 21 for 143 a TD and two picks) looks closer to the Roethlisberger of 2007's title team. The problem is that Pittsburgh planned on mediocre from him four years ago. The 2010-11 team can't afford that.

Both sides are going to make changes, but I think Green Bay has to at least keep the same philosphy going and not get passive. The Packers are getting a ton of success by looking for big plays rather than hoping for them. They're going deep and they should keep that up, and hopefully they can squeeze a big run out of Starks.

Cue the Lombardi quotes.

Wait... the fans for the Black Eyed Peas concert aren't even real fans? They're part of the choreography?

8:14 -- SLAAAAAASH!!!!!!!! It appears the NFL can't completely separate itself from over-the-hill rockers taking over halftime.

SECOND HALF

James Jones just kicked the door wide open for the Steelers. That guy had nothing but green in front of him and did the classic "that's why you're not a star" moment. It was 3rd and 5 and whether he scored or not, it would have swung field position to the far side. Insttead, it's Steelers ball and a Mendenhall run puts them deep in Packers territory.

"Way to go, Mike, you ruined the blog!"

My brother-in-law distracted me to show me something about my nephew's babyroom or something and I missed Mendenhall break off a TD run. Honestly, who reads this anyways? But that's not the point. The point is the Steelers are way back in it now. Packers 21, Steelers 17.

8:48 -- This is just Draft Day all over again for Aaron Rodgers, only instead of him dropping further and further down the board , it's his receivers doing the dropping. Three and out.

Commercial commentary: Coke appears to be the day's biggest loser. Nothing good and borderline bad. Unfortunately there's about 17 people between me and being able to hear all of the commercials, so I'm at a disadvantage. Although, just saw Adrien Brody singing to a beer, so at least Coke knows it won't have the worst commercial on the night.

8:57 -- Another almost-big-play as Big Ben missed Mike Wallace in the left front corner of the end zone. Might mean nothing, but when you're down four in the Super Bowl, every miss is a big miss.

There's a Colin Cowherd line I love that I'll use in this situation. ".... the difference is inches, not feet." When you reach the Super Bowl, no matter what teams you have there and how favored a team might be, the difference in talent is inches, not feet. The difference between a Super Bowl title and "maybe next year" is inches, not feet. Ben Roethliberger missing MIke Wallace eventually resulted in a 52-yard field goal try that was unmentionably wide left. So close, but Ben's a few inches off his game so far today.

9:12 -- Tramon Williams just pinned his team deep with a completely ridiculous unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, putting the Packers inside their own 15.

2nd and 10 and the entire room just let out a collective, "Ohhhhhh" when Rodgers floated a ball out of bounds that looked like it might have been a Steelers pick six. Again, Rodgers does his part on the next play to get the Packers down the field, but Brett Swain has the ball punched out. It's called incomplete and looks like it will hold up.

Unfortunate scenario that could result: Roethlisberger pulls off a win with mediocre numbers, smoke and mirrors, while Rodgers puts on a brilliant performance (some of which will get lost to The Island of Missed Opportunities) but walk out a loser. Ben will have three rings with only one solid performance in those three.

END OF THIRD QUARTER -- Packers 21, Steelers 17

9:24 -- Clay Matthews. Stud. The guy's been around the field all game but just missed the big play until  now. Head-on-ball, perfect form and he just gave Rodgers the chance to make it happen.

9:30 -- Jordy Nelson drops another one.

9:31 -- Jordy Nelson makes up for it again with a big catch-and-run down to the two.

I hate and love that guy.

9:32 -- Rodgers throws off his back foot to the far right corner of the end zone to a wide-open Jennings for an easy touchdown. Watch the replay of that, because Rodgers just pulled the entire Steelers defense (particularly Polamalu) to the left by staring it down the whole time. It was a classic Kansas City Shuffle (see Lucky Number Sleven for reference).

(Bruce Willis' character) Mr. Goodkat: A Kansas City Shuffle is when everybody looks right, you go left.

Packers 28, Steelers 17.

9:40 -- Text from dad: "u might have gotten the score right but ...." Startin to look that way, but we'll see. I'm more focused on the final result than the final score, but I can say that after I know my prediction can't happen.

9:43 -- Big Ben hooks up with Mike Wallace on an over-the-shoulder ball down the left side. Then a brilliant play call for the two-point conversion. Ben's claim to fame so far has been that he doesn't do anything pretty, but he just comes up big in the moments he needs to. Packers 28, Steelers 25.

Love this game, btw.

9:52 -- 3rd and 10 and Rodgers slings one to Jennings good for 31 yards. Huge play. Finally he looks for his No. 1 target for a big play and doesn't try to put it in the hands of Nelson or James or PanHands McGee.

Good no call on possible pass interference. Packers get three instead of win the game. Not an even trade, but it's there's to lose. Packers 31, Steelers 25.

Be back when it's over.

10:07 -- It's over. Packers 31, Steelers 25.

Roethlisberger's magic ran out and Aaron Rodgers has his own place in history. Probably makes the best feel-good storyline for a guy who's career has been overshadowed by the perception that he's always in Brett Favre's shadow. It's like those players in any sport that always get called "the most underrated player in the game." Instead of giving them the credit they deserve, they become endeared as being underrated.

So it goes for Rodgers. His sullen face on draft day is, wait, was, the iconic moment of his career until just now. Now he's not a loveable loser or a guy you hope can do it -- he's the guy who's done it. Even still, I can picture  the classic career highlight reel for Rodgers starting with that sad face. It's molded him to this humble, anti-Favre that wins like Favre. And I'm a Favre guy, but the change of pace and what that does for fans -- that breath of fresh air is being taken in deeply right now by Packers fans every where, mostly so they can scream in celebration for as long as they can.

Enjoy it.

10:19 -- Terry Bradshaw had no intention of giving up that microphone to Roger Goodell. Made for one of the more awkward male hand-holds I've ever seen. Great way to cap the night.

I haven't seen an NBA game from start to finish all season, so to have my first one be Lakers/Celtics is turning out to be a, "Man, how long have I been missing out?" type moment. While the NBA is not the NFL and never will be, they understand their niche in the pecking order just as well.

The Association does the job when it comes to promoting regular season games, while Major League Baseball only pipes up when it's Red Sox/Yankees. The gurus that put together the NBA schedule highlight a handful of dates throughout the year that they can straight-up own, and the dark week between conference championship games and Super Bowl Sunday is clearly one of those days.

Right now, it's 49-46 Lakers with a minute and a half left in the first half. Jack's there. Matt Damon's there. Jimmy Kimmel and George Lopez are there. And Shaq's back in La La Land -- with his mom their to deflect any negative vibes from Laker fans. Before this, the polarizing yet must-see TV that is the Miami Heat took down the Oklahoma City Thunder in a game that featured LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh, Kevin Durant -- four of the most exciting players in the world.

Game 2 trumps it. Garnett, Pierce, Allen vs. Kobe, Pau, Bynum, and even the role players like Rajon Rondo and Ron Artest. I may only watch the NBA on six or seven occassions, but I'm rarely disappointed.

"I'd rather watch Kobe Bryant miss than watch most other players make a shot." Jeff Van Gundy sellin it even while I'm already buyin'. That quote came after Black Mamba spun, stutter-stepped, pumped, then double-clutched while being fouled. Guy is something special.

Now, to the Super Bowl.

I said before the title games last weekend that it would be Packers-Steelers, and I'm pumped that it happened because that's the best possible matchup. Love it. In fact, I don't see how this game doesn't end up in the upper-echelon of Super Bowls. Here's five reasons why:

The QBs: They may not be considered the two best quarterbacks in football, but Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are the most exciting. I'll listen to arguments for Mike Vick, but the way these two guys are like walking A.E.D. machines -- they keep plays alive. Just call him Big-Game Ben because the guy's already got two rings and seems to make the plays he has to make when he has to make them. The cumbersome, less-tha-GQ-quality look of Ben makes it next to impossible to dub his game sexy -- plus his advisors would probably suggest to leave sex out of any descrption. He looks more like Will Farrell in Step Brothers in the lumberjack scene. Aaron Rodgers can make every throw, is deceptively shifty in the pocket and he's sttill playing with a chip on his shoulder from the day he was drafted.

Two great dos: Troy Polomalu and Clay Matthews will represent the two greatest heads of hair in Super Bowl history, and happen to be two of the game's most exciting play-makers. Clay has been a beast since the season started and I expect him to be all over the field. Polomalu suffered some injuries this year, but he changes pass-happy offenses maybe more than any single player in the game today.

Opportunistic defenses: Turnovers usually have an ugly connotation to them, but both defenses make them look pretty. Hard hitting + ball hawks leads to picks and fumbles, and I expect at least four total turnovers. Nothing sparks momentum like a change of possession, and momentum has no bigger stage.

So many blue collars: Both teams have that workmen's appeal to them, which I'm sure will be played up a ton in the coming week. They embrace their city's personality like few teams do, and that turns into producing some of the best fans. I don't have to be a fan of either to find a reason to root for them.

Fireworks: The Steelers and Packers make big plays on both sides of the ball -- the kind of plays that get youtubed minutes later. And it even works both ways -- good and bad. With so many explosive players on both sides, I expect at least one catastrophic miscue. The right play call, the right read, the right throw, but the ball's dropped. Or the perfect defense, great position, but the deflected pass gets halled in by someone who flew in from way out of the picture. That kind of play wil happen.

I see the game going down to the final six minutes, and I'll take Roethlisberger in that situation against a guy who's never been there. I like Rodgers and I'll bet he have better stats than Ben, but that won't be enough to get him the win. Steelers 27, Packers 20.

Honestly, I wouldn't pick the Jets to win this game even if I didn't hate them. The Steelers have the edge in all facets, and the fact that Roethlisberger has proven himself as a big-game quarterback makes this an easy prediction.

The Jets can win, and to do it they're going to need a handful of big running plays, at least one huge play passing the ball, and either a defensive touchdown or for the defense to cause a turnover that sets up an easy touchdown. All of those things, or I get my wish.

7:03 -- Mendenhall plunges in from a yard out and just like that the Steelers are making me look smart. Taking the good with the bad, it looks like Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey is going to be done for the day and maybe more. The clip of his injury is going to join Joe Theisman in the class of, "I don't feel bad looking away" clips.

Mark Sanchez has four playoff victories in his career and that's THE MOST in Jets history. I guess when the bar is that low, it's easy to put him on a pedestal. This will be the last time I harp on this without a reason from the game, but I just don't see why he warrants the hype. He's in New York, so he has the spotlight, and he's been to two conference title games, but I feel like his play is closer to Trent Dilfer for the Ravens in 2001. The guy's good, not great. That's what I'm saying.

7:58 -- With 2 minutes left in the first half, my prediction's looking rock solid, and so are the Steelers. Roethlisberger's doing everything right and, more importantly, the Pittsburgh running game is bruising the Jets up front. Mendenhall's a beast and he's finally shining on the biggest stage. He's five yards away from a hundred and he's already got a TD. It's one thing when big plays put you in a hole, but when a team is being physicall dominated in the trenches, it's rare for that team to mount a comeback.

Just as I type that, Sanchez gets sandwiched for a seven-yard loss on first down. The Steelers are not going to be stopped and should be decently favored in two weeks when they take on the Packers.

8:03 -- 24-0 Pittsburgh after a defensive touchdown. It doesn't look fair right now, but a decent response by Sanchez and the Jets to get 3 before the half. I love how optimistic Phil Simms is being, stressing the importance of that last Jets drive knowing they'll get the ball back after the break. Not sure if that's his job to make sure the TV audience stays into it, but I'm buyin' it. New York has talked the talk all season, so why not at least talk like you've got a shot?

HALFTIME Piitsburgh 24, New York 3

9:01 -- Sanchez tosses a legit deep ball to Santonio Holmes and made it look easy to make this game interesting. The Jets are starting to get after Big Ben a bit more, but that guy's sneaky quick, and I fear the Jets are underestimating the sneakiness.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, they're playing against two opponents right now -- the Steelers and the clock. With 1:05 left, there's plenty of time, but that changes quickly, especially with how well Pittsburgh's running the ball.

Unrelated high note for the day: Got tickets for my first Sabres game since 2001 when red and black uniforms were still considered a good idea. February 25 against the Sens. Pumped.

END OF THIRD QUARTER'

It's not quite the Russian citizens becoming pro-Rocky in Rocky IV, but I got to say that Sanchez is impressing me in the second half. He throws a good ball -- an NFL ball -- and he seems to command attention in the huddle the way you want to see a quarterback do it. It looks like he's genuinely embracing the challenge of winning this game himself. I don't like the guy any more than when the day started, but I'm finding fewer on-the-field reasons to slight the guy. Oh, except that terrible beard he's rocking. Isn't he a spokesman for Gillette?

9:23 -- LaDanian Tomlinson just got denied what would've been a game-changing, momentum-swinging touchdown on 4th-and-goal from the one. Earlier in the day I texted Joe (friend from San Diego and huge Chargers fan) and asked if he was rooting for his former-favorite player.

"Hell no. Loved watching cutler go LT today." referring to Jay Cutler's disappearing act in a big game -- a rep that Tomlinson has rightfully, um, earned (?... is that the right word?). Deserves.

9:27 -- Pouncey's injury finally comes back to bite the Steelers. Big Ben falls on a fumbled snap in the end zone and it's a safety. So with just over 7:30 to play, the Jets are down 12 and will have great field position after the kick.

WOW. Sanchez sidestepped Woodley -- swithing hands with the football -- and then flicked a pass on the run to Braylon Edwards for a first down. BIGGER WOW. Nick Mangold goes down when Sanchez dives forward and lands on his leg, and it doesn't look good. Could be a deal breaker right there.

9:36 -- Mangold checked back in, and after an odd running play with LT, Sanchez hits Jericho Cotchery on a little out pattern for a TD. Can't wait to see if Rex goes onsides kick here, or if tests his defense to make a stop.

Huge return for Antonio Brown brought the ball out to the 41, so even if it's 3-and-out, it's going to help the Steelers force a longer field for Sanchez to have to cover. Just remembered -- Jets kicker Nick Folk played for Dallas a few years ago when the Cowboys shocked the Bills in overtime. Still hate him.

9:42 -- Huge play call by the Steelers letting Big Ben make a big play, and so glad it went to Heath Miller. That guy does it all and isn't a one-trick pony like so many other tight ends in the league. Gets a first down and should end up taking at least another minute off the clock with a new set of downs.

Three plays later on 3rd-and-6, Roethlisberger shows why he's a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, and then Rex Ryan showed why he's so polarizing when he threw a quick little temper tantrum. Ryan saw it happen, put his hands over his face like he just got told he couldn't go to a sleepover party and threw his headset to the ground.

FINAL Steelers 24, Jets 19

I said before the games started it would be Steelers-Packers, and it is. Not exactly a bold prediction, but regardless, I'm excited for the game. The CBS halftime crew touched on how fun it will be with these two QBs who are probably the best in the game at extending the play. This match-up provides the greatest fun factor of any combination, without lacking defense.

Tune in February 6.

When I make a list of most hated teams, the New York Jets are locked in at the top and it goes from there. So with the Jets heading to Pittsburgh today to take on the Steelers in the night cap following a classic Bears-Packers showdown at Soldier Field, my only question is: Who do I want the Steelers to play in the Super Bowl?

The NFC title game starts in less than three hours, so here's my predictions:

Bears vs. Packers

--  Brett Favre will be mentioned no less than eight times
-- Aaron Rodgers will win the statistical battle of the QBs with way more yards and at least one more TD.
-- Neither team's running back - Matt Forte and James Starks - will rush for more than 75 yards.
-- Over/under on text messages from Luke (college buddy and huge Bears fan) is set at six
-- Charles Woodson will have a sack and an interception
-- Devin Hester won't get a chance to do anything special
-- The Packers will win, 31-27.

Steelers vs. Jets

-- Santonio Holmes will -- and should -- be cheered loudly by the crowd at Heinz Field
-- Santonio Homes will -- and should -- be booed every time he touches the ball by the crowd at Heinz Field
-- The CBS crew will dominate the FOX crew in terms of not distracting viewers from the game
-- Steelers running back Rashad Mendenhall will rush for 100+ yards and a TD
-- LT will rush for 60-70 yards and add 30 in receiving and a TD.
-- Sanchez will be compared to "Broadway" Joe Namath early and then play more like "Off-Broadway" Joe Namath
-- The Steelers will win, 27-13.

Bears vs. Packers

Got stuck in transit headed to my buddy's place to watch this, so I'm a few minutes behind. Had to settle for hearing the Packers' opening drive on the radio. Despite that impressive march, I'm not thinking blowout at all. At the end of one quarter, the Pack's up 7-0.

SECOND QUARTER

Cutler can't get comfortable and the Bears offense looks inept at this point. The Packers are doing the same stuff they have all year on D  -- blitzing, and the Bears look like they had no idea it was coming.

Commercial commentary: No amount of grooves in the neck of the bottle are going to make Miller Lite taste any better.

3:51 --  Starks just scored his first NFL touchdown and is making me regret  my earlier prediction about his day. Strong run for the former Bull, and a lot of savvy to pull that stretch to finish it off. If the Packers have a constant 14-point lead, he's going to get a ton of carries the rest of the way.

Just got a huge reaction from the peanut gallery about the slip-sliding away commercial of cars sliding on the ice. "Those are real people in there! Do you know how scary it is feel your car lose control?"

I don't get Jay Cutler. The guy has all the physical tools in the world but he's never been a winner. He lost at Vanderbilt, he lost in Denver, and it's not like he should be given the bulk of credit for the team's success this season. He had a nice season, but he doesn't carry his team the same way Peyton Manning carried a bad, injury-riddled Colts team to the playoffs. Of course, right now, he's marching them down the field, and I reserve the right to take all of this back.

My buddy Mark: "Can you make a comment about A.J. Hawk's girlfriend being Brady Quinn's sister?"

Yeah, A.J. Hawk's a starting linebacker for a solid defense and super bowl contender, but my memory of him -- and apparently Mark's memory -- will always be of Laura (Quinn) Hawk wearing that split jersey when the two played each other in a bowl game. It's up there in the list of terrible gimmicks to draw a crowd.

4:09 -- Time's winding down and Lance Briggs just made a huge stop on a 3rd-and-1 to stuff Starks and give the ball back to the Bears. They've got 90 yards to go, but any points before the half would be huge -- maybe mandatory.

Best fourth-down stuff I've ever scene:

A few plays in and FOX points out the blood on Cutler's elbow. Really? Is he Curt Schilling? Is Joe Buck setting that up? I think Buck did that Red Sox game, too, so I wouldn't put it past him.

Huge 3rd-and-7 coming up. Single-play prediction: Cutler Fail.

4:19 -- I win. Cutler can't find the hot read on a blitzing corner, gets sacked and fumbles. Strange rule about a fumble from an offensive player can't be advanced by a different offensive player.

4:23 -- Lance Briggs picks off the foot of Driver and Cutler gets another chance. Didn't realize Forte was so productive this year with 1,600-plus yards of offense. Tip of the cap to that guy. and just like that, Cutler tosses up a punt to Jonny Knox and Sam Shields -- a nobody from nowhere -- makes the interception. Completely deflating the stadium.  Jump balls sometimes make quarterbacks look really good. You hear things like, "He just trusts his receiver to go make a play and puts it up there to let him do it." But Knox isn't that guy. In fact, there's not a "that guy" on the Bears roster at the wide receiver spot. 

HALFTIME -- Packers 14, Bears 10

I posted a link to this blog on the Daily Messenger Facebook Page, and got two responses so far:

Melissa Colf dislike... go JETS!!!!
Kelly Schecter Go jets - all the way.

Got to say I expected that a bit. Thanks for playing. Don't stop there, keep 'em coming.

THIRD QUARTER

Again with the bloody elbow, Chris Myers? Stop it. That's why Cutler only looks like Brett Favre and he's not actually Brett Favre. Gunslinger, missing a few bullets. And for some reason, Cutler only throws off his back foot AGAIN on third down when a planted foot would have turned into a first down. Instead of watching the emergence of Cutler as an elite player, we're watching the regression. He is who I thought he was!!

4:55 -- TODD COLLINS!!! Urlacher just picked it off and was an Aaron Rodgers arm tackle away from a 90-plus-yard TD, and Todd Collins is in for the Bears. Cutler apparently is too hurt to get back in, and I'm gonna say he's mailing it in. Collins, the former heir-apparent to Jim Kelly when the Bills drafted him out of Michigan in 1995. If I can root for anything that goes against my prediction, it's this -- Todd Collins brings the Bears back to victory. He did almost throw a pick on 3rd-and-15, but I'm still pulling for him.

Dan: "We should make mock commercials -- 'The Never Been to the Super Bowl Club."

5:19 -- Chicago's defense is keeping them in it, but with no Todd Collins on the ffield (he either is hurt or pulled), do they really have a chance? Caleb Hanie checks in -- third-year player out of Colorado State. All this is doing is making me feel like the fourth quarter won't be worth my attention. Bring on Jets-Steelers!

5:29 -- One of my favorite announcer lines when a team starts a comeback: "... and ALL OF A SUDDEN... here comes CHICAGO!" Kaleb Hanie threw the first thing that could be called an NFL pass by a Bears QB and set up a one-yard TD plunge to cut the lead in half with plenty of time left. Don't call it a comeback.

Terrible luck on a terrible rule for Chicago. Julius Peppers blows up Aaron Rodgers a fraction of  second after the ball left his hands and he got hit with 15 yards for head-to-head contact. You can't not lead with your head, and you shouldn't penalize guys for a QB changing his position in a way that makes it head-to-head.

5:44 -- 24. Yard. Punt. "I feel like we kick it farther than 24 yards when we're just messing around at Holy Cross." Dan's got a point. Makes me think of that scene in Wayne's World II when Wayne calls out the actor that plays the gas station attendent. "Do we really have to put up with this? I mean, I know it's a small part, but I think we can do better than this." The guy gets shuffled off the screen and Charlton Heston replaces him.

5:55 -- B.J. Raji just ended this game. That guy went two picks before the Bills went on the clock and took Aaron Maybin with the No. 11 pick.

5:58 -- Do I have to eat my words, Caleb Hanie? Because I will. Bears score in just 81 seconds and Kaleb Hanie looks like a young Jim McMahon. Let's see something ridiculous.

6:15 -- After one of the worst 3rd-and-ballgame playcalls I've ever seen, Hanie's desparation pass gets picked off by Shields (his second INT on the day) to end my hopes for a more entertaining game.

FINAL Packers 21, Bears 14.

There are few things more frustrating than watching a guy who couldn't get the job done for you, go and do it for someone else. With that in mind, Marshawn Lynch is my most-hated ex.

I was pumped when the Bils took him out of Cal. I didn't think he was a special player, but he was the right pick for a team that needed a game-breaker. Lynch was the consensus best running back in the draft that year, so I loved the pick. It was their biggest need and they got the best player available.

It was a classic relationship. Honeymoon period made us all think it would never end (2,151 yards rushing and 15 TDs in first two seasons). And then he got comfortable. He stopped doing all the little things that made you feel special (started just six games in 2009, rushing for just 120 yards). And, yeah, maybe there was that new filly (Fred Jackson) that made him feel less wanted, but there's two ways to go about handling it -- Lynch decided to walk away.

Before it was over, it was a loveless marriage where everyone knew it had to come to an end.

The Bills traded Lynch to the Seahawks earlier this season after showcasing him in back-to-back weeks, and it was over. But we all know relationships don't just end like that. It still hurts. And it hurts even more to see he's doing so well with his new flame.

"He looks so good, now. Did he always look that good? How could I not see it when we were together? OK, calm down, it's just seller's remorse... but still, look at him! That's the Beast Mode I remember."

If you didn't hear me before the season started, you might not believe it that I said the Bills were making a mistake in going with Jackson. I love the guy -- nice player, great locker room guy, class act -- but I was never IN love with him. Lynch had more power, and I enjoyed watching him have fun with the game.

So when the text messages started Saturday after Lynch ripped off one of the most epic playoff runs of all time (yeah, I said it), I was flooded with thoughts of what could have been. Congratulations, Marshawn -- you're the new "The one that got away."

To a lesser extent, it needs to be pointed out that Willis McGahee also ran for a TD today to deliver the knock-out punch to the Chiefs. I hated the McGahee pick when it happened and never thought much of him, but the guy does his job in Baltimore and apparently is a model teammate. Apparently with both of these relationships, the Bills were saying, "it's not you, it's me."

All of this got me thinking about former Bills who went on and played well for other teams. Antoine Winfield and Pat Williams in Minnesota jump to mind. Staff writer Bryan Sullivan pointed out that Rob Johnson (yeah, that Rob Johnson) won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers as a backup. Don Beebe won one with the Packers. How about Todd Collins leading the Redskins into the playoffs a few years ago? Jason Peters is playing in this game for the Eagles. The list is longer, so if you know any more names, throw them at me.

Some quick hits: James Starks, who had a huge season at University at Buffalo as a junior but then missed his senior season with an injury last year, looks like a difference maker for the Packers right now -- representin' the Bulls... Andre Reed is a finalist for the Hall of Fame. I shouldn't have to hope for him, but I guess I do so I will... Love the Marv Levy Coors Light commercials.

I can't say I'd be mad if the Bills knock off the Jets today, but I'd prefer to not have that internal struggle keeping me up all night. Lose. Just lose. Please. It's for the greater good.

Despite the 4-11 record, I can't say this is the most disappointing season I've seen -- not even close. I mean, I was there when the Third-String Steelers came into Buffalo when the Bills needed a win to reach the playoffs in '04. Or how about 2002 when they started 2-0, including a 31-0 opening day rout of the Patriots? They finished 6-10.

And can I forget the 5-1 start just a few years ago? Trent Edwards was on PTI after the win against the Chargers. That victory came after a bruising loss in Arizona, but it showed the Bills had resolve. Didn't it? It showed they were for real. Right? Two wins and eight losses later, and I had a new No. 1 on my list of most frustrating Bills seasons I've ever seen.

Honorable Mention: The 1999-2000 campaign that ended in the Music City Miracle. The only thing more frustrating than the final score was the fact that Doug Flutie saw that game from the bench.

Fast forward to 12:10 p.m., Sunday, January 2, 2011.

What I'm looking for
Fred Jackson to rush for 109 yards. He needs 108 to crack 1,000 for the season, and he's a guy that I've always rooted for. I was never sold on him being a long-term find and thought Marshawn Lynch never got a fair shake, but he's a huge character guy and one I'm glad they kept.

Stevie Johnson to improve his fantasy football draft status more than any other receiver in the NFL. He was a 13th-round reach at the beginning of the season. By week 10, he was a starter in %70 of leagues. A solid day today and he'll be in that fourth-round range.

Jairus Byrd to finally make an INT. He had nine last year, none this year. Nuff said.

1:00 -- L.T., Shonn Greene, Darrelle Revis, and Antonio Cromartie are all sitting out today for the Jets, and I have to assume Sanchez won't play the entire game. None of that is helping my nerves at this point, but it's early.

Brian Brohm just walked out on the field and I smiled and cried at the same time. I was actually a huge Brohm guy after his junior season at Louisville and was even more pumped when Mel Kiper said he was "in the Jim Kelly-mold." He had a relatively down senior season and slipped to the second round to the Packers where he was burried behind Aaron Rodgers.

1:08 -- And the good/bad continues. Brohm throws a dart to Stevie for 34 yards, and S.J. didn't take the tackle serious enough, because he fumbled inside the 15. Jets' ball.

Scoring update: The Bengals are down 3-0 to the Ravens. Really pullin for them and the Broncos to pull off some victories this weekend to help the cause. If the Bills get that No. 2 pick, it'll be the highest draft pick since 1985 when the Bills selected a guy named Bruce Smith with the No. 1 pick.

1:12 -- Not sure I understand taking Sanchez being taken out each time it's a throwing situation. "I wouldn't let him throw the football," says Steve Tasker. Then why put him out there at all? If he can't throw, why not just give him the NFL equivalent of a bullpen session and let him hand the ball off to L.T. 30 times on the sideline or in the fieldhouse?

1:17 -- Some big runs against the 32nd-ranked Bills run defense and the Jets seltte for a field goal. Love the boos about it, by the way. Everyone in the stadium knows they can get that 4th and 1, but that cerebral Rex Ryan knows his football. (sarcasm).

1:25 -- It's only a few series in, but Brohm's looking OK. His arm is clearly stronger than Fitz, and his out-pattern ball seems sharp. But as Dan just pointed out to me in a series of texts, "weird at this point. why not earlier if they wanted to see him?"

Exactly. If he was showing flashes of promise in practice, regardless of how well Fitz had played, they would have thrown him in earlier than this. Final judgements to come later.

Mark Brunell siting and it's great to see. I've got a ton of memories of him (since being drafted in 1993), mostly in Jacksonville. He's been at it for 18 years -- just about as long as I've been a fan of football (I was 10 years old in '93).

JETS 3, BILLS 0

Texted Dan to tell him why Fitz is sitting with that knee injury. His response was classic:

"Ah. Better get him healthy for the playoff run"

Note: Dan's a Bengals fan, so we hold the head-to-head tie-breaker.

SECOND QUARTER

Love the tweets from Matt Warren. If you're a Bills fan, you've got to follow this guy. He just tweeted that Brian Moorman became the all-time leader in punts and games punted. The guy's in deep with the Bills and kills it on the Twitter scene.

1:43 -- Brohm picked off by a guy who's gotten less playing time than Aaron Maybin, and he took it to the house. Jets 10, Bills 0.

I know Brohm wants to show something, but making stupid decisions to throw when Calvin Pace is in his face just adds to the, "that's why he's a backup" argument. After a three-and-out, I'm loaded with Andrew Luck love, but I'm going to save that for now.

I'm more interested in our wide receiver corps at the moment. When's Lee Evans' contract up? I'm pretty sure he's locked up for a few more years, so I'm thinking him, Stevie Johnson, and David Nelson makes a pretty good starting three, and Roscoe would be a nice throw-in if he can last a full season. Keep Spiller and Jackson in the backfield, maybe draft a tight end (Kyle Rudolph in the second round is my vote), and just stay healthy on the line, I'm OK with the line when it's all there.

Thought process:  CBS commercials, Hawaii Five-O, "Seems just terrible," the guy who played Tweeter in 'Varsity Blues,' that was arguably the worst football movie ever made.

And here's why...

-- If my second-string quarterback is sitting on the bench reading Kurt Vonnegut DURING THE GAME, he would be off my team. I don't care if Dawson is the main character -- that move gets you cut from any team.

- If my second-string quarterback was making up his own plays in practice called the Oopty-Oop and distracted the entire second team's focus, again, gone.

- If my second-string quarterback who is now my starter due to injury took my starting RB, WR and OG to a strip club for a boozefest the night before a game, he, and the rest of those guys, would be off my team. (all due respect to Miss Davis and her performance).

- Finally, the CLOCK STOPS FOR A FIRST DOWN IN HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL. There's no need for running up to the line only to throw the ball out of bounds to hit the other team's mascot. There's actually more, but I just can't devote that much time without getting upset.

2:17 -- Chris Kelsey called for a bush-league penalty for roughing the passer. The call was nixed by an intentionally grounding call, but it kept the Jets from losing yards, and opened the door for Brunell's first TD pass in a half-decade to Santonio Holmes. Jets 17, Bills 0.

HALFTIME

2:36 -- Ask and you shall receive. I wanted to see Jairus Byrd get a pick today and he just jumped an out route and took it in for six. I want to say that's his first touchdown in the NFL, so good for him. It's the right start to a second half that I was about to dismiss in favor of banter on topics from the draft to failed movies to ham sandwiches.

JETS 17, BILLS 7

2:53 -- Mark Brunnel jumps into the Way-Back Machine and tosses up a TD pass that dropped just out of the reach of Leodis McKelvin (classic).

It's probably too early to classify McKelvin as a bust, but the guy was a first-round pick and has nothing but imfamy to show for it. His best days don't come close to outshining his fumbled kick off agains the Patriots a year ago, or his entire career of spotty coverage. A guy like him really makes me miss Antoine Winfield.

JETS 24, BILLS 7

2:58 -- With just 27 yards rushing so far, it's safe to say that Fred Jackson will not reach 1,000 for the season. Instead, three more plays lead to another Bills punt. It's this time of the year when Brian Moorman kicks the ball with attitude -- once again he didn't make the Pro Bowl despite being arguably the Bills best player. I mean that to say that he does his job better than any other single Bills player does their job. Prove me wrong.

3:17 -- Calvin Pace is looking like a young Jason Taylor, while Taylor is looking  like an old Lawrence Taylor. Jason forces the floater from Brohm that Pace dives to intercept it. That's four turnovers and this game just got ugly. Silver linings really go a long way heading into the offseason, but the only one out there now comes in April.

Forgive me for harping on that, but I can't help myself. This is the first time in the last 15 or so years that I've been OK with the idea of giving up on what you have to start completely new. I've gotten into arguments with friends and colleagues about whether the Panthers will pass on Luck with that top pick. If they take him, they are saying that they are OK going 2-14 again. The best case scenario for Luck in Carolina might mean a few more wins, but the two-win total is most likely. QB might be the best pick for them, but it's not their biggest need the same way it is in Buffalo.

If they can't get Luck at No. 2, I'd be more in line to take De'Quan Bowers out of Clemson. He's the top defensive lineman in the draft and that's the Bills' biggest need aside from QB. I don't know that Ryan Mallett or Cam Newton is a No. 2  pick, but I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

Oh, the Jets scored again with Kellen Clemens, Brohm jjust tossed up a punt, and this season is donezo.

JETS 31, BILLS 7.

2011 predictions:

-- Bills will draft Andrew Luck with the 2nd overall pick and take either the best defensive lineman or tight end with their second-round pick.

-- Fitzpatrick will start the season in the lineup and CJ Spiller will be the starting RB

-- A healthy Bills line and improving receiving corps gives the Bills a much better offense, but the defense still struggles.

-- The Bills will be at about .500 when Luck starts to get some playing time.

-- Luck looks as good as Sam Bradford did in St. Louis, leading the Bills to an 8-8 finish and a third-place finish in the AFC East.

-- I win several bets with friends/enemies about predictions made for the season.

Can't watch the last four minutes, but it's 38-7, so I'm sorry if the Jets tack on more. I'm done.

Fourteen straight losses, and this could be the worst one for the Bills to win. Nonetheless, I can't think of a better day-after-Christmas present than to force Tom Brady and the Pats to wait one more week before locking up thte AFC.

As usual, I'm a few minutes behind and the Bills have already given me more hope than I've ever had in the last fourteen games (note: I never thought they were going to win last year's game in New England up 11 with like :13 seconds left or something awful).

1:17 -- Bills are up 3-0 and the Pats are driving. "Soon your words are not gonna make sense." Thanks, Ash.

I'm hanging at my friend's place with a handful of knuckleheads and a bowl of pigs-in-a-blanket to catch this game. I was thinking about the Bills and how much they've improved over the last six weeks (4-2 record in that stretch), but their wins have come against Cincy, Detroit, Cleveland and Miami -- not a winner in the bunch.

1:29 -- Only the Bills could make Danny Woodhead look like Roger Craig. And just as I type that, he breaks off a 29-yard run for a score. I mean, I love the guy -- huge fantasy pick-up for me because he runs at WR/RB, but there's really no reason for him to do this kinda job on even the Bills D. 7-3, Pats.

1:35 -- Ryan Fitzpatrick just did what Ryan Fitzpatrick has and will always do -- he's Brett Favre sans the talent, and that results in ugly fumbles like the one that just happened.

1:43 -- Donte Whitner just showed why he doesn't have a contract yet. Turn around and pick the ball off, or keep your back turned and let Gronkowski look like Tony Gonzalez. Whitner's been crying about his contract all season, but has never looked like a No. 1 pick. I don't dislike the guy, but he's expendable, and plays like that make it obvious. A few plays later, Gronkowski takes a 14-3 lead.

1:49 -- Back to the game, and we go the obligatory camera shot of Niagara Falls that comes standard with any televised event in the greater Buffalo area.

Ty Warren is one massive mass of man. He just forced a holding penalty on what would have been a Bills first down from Fitz to Fast Freddy.

"Why do you think he's so serious right there?" My buddy, Todd, on Stevie Johnson after he couldn't come down with another fade rout. Stevie aside, I love what I'm seeing from the Bills receivers Nelson, Roosevelt and Jones.

"Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like a guy on the street that you would not look in the eye because you'd be be worried he'd ask you for change." Todd's got a point.

2:08 -- Just caught a glimpse of the Nate Clements while flipping to the Fox game and managed to smile at how overpaid he was-slash-is by the 49ers. I wasn't happy to see him go, but LOL-ed when he inked a deal worth 80-mill. I knew it was a bust then and was really happy to be proven right years later. Just don't ask about Pat Williams or Antoine Winfield -- sad face emoticon.

2:14 -- Not sure who to blame on that miscommunication, but I do know an interception when I see one. Pats' ball.

Who can sympathize with me on this? I hate watching the Bils fail like Twitter, but I love the thought of Andrew Luck rocking Buffalo colors for the next 15 years. My love affair with that thought is as strong as ever with no end of the honeymoon in sight. Is that weird?

2:21 -- Alge Crumpler just scored a touchdown. What Delorean did I just jump in that a guy who hasn't been relevant for five years??

2:30 -- A timeout left on the board and 50 yards to go and they let the clock run out. You're down 21 points in a season that doesn't mean anything.... THROW THE HAIL MARY.

SECOND HALF

"I don't feel like I'm part of the group...." Dan just put his boo-hoo face on because my laptop's in the way of him being included in our reindeer games.

2:53 -- Gronkowski just scored again, the Pats are making this a joke, and my buddy Knowles just texted me saying "The City that God Forgot." It's hard to argue with that.

Somehow, Tom Brady has thrown for fewer than 100 yards, but has three touchdowns. I'm no Elias Bureau, but I'm fairly certain that has never happened before. Dan (in his Carson Palmer jersey) just gave me a hard time about the fact we're watching this terrible game while the Jets/Bears game goes back and forth but only as highlights for us.

3:23 -- Don't miss Hawaii Five-O.

4:32 -- If you were looking for more commentary on a football game, I apologize. Anything that resembled a football game ended three quarters ago. Not sure how to feel about it, but I can't make that call at this time. I'm to distraught. Too upset.
 

Like most people, I was forced to listen to the Bills' victory over the Browns on Sunday, half of it from the road as I returned from a buddy's wedding, the other half from my couch. As pleased as I am at the outcome, I can't shake a much deeper feeling of loss.

In the famous words of Rosie Perez in White Men Can't Jump: "Sometimes when you win, you really lose. And sometimes when you lose, you really win. And sometimes when you win or lose you actually tie. And sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose"

The Bills won the game and thus their third of the season, all but guaranteeing them they will not hold the first overall pick in the draft next April. With every battle they win, they're losing the war. I think the honeymoon phase for Bills fans on Ryan Fitzpatrick being a possible long-term answer is long gone. He's an exceptional backup and perhaps an excellent candidate to groom the starter of the future. My vote for which goes to Stanford's Andrew Luck.

I haven't been this infatuated with a quarterback since Doug Flutie, but Luck is the real deal and Buffalo needs him like few other teams need any player. I wasn't sold on Matt Ryan when he came out, and even less so on Matthew Stafford when he was the top pick. Obviously there are plenty of examples of failed top QBs (see David Carr, Alex Smith, Akili Smith, and, oh yeah, J.P. Losman).

If the season were over today, the Bills would have the No. 4 pick behind Carolina, Detroit and Cincinnati. But Denver (3-10), Arizona (4-9) and Dallas (4-9) are all in the hunt to move up the board. The Panthers, Lions and Cardinals don't worry me as teams that would take a QB (though Arizona might), but Denver will have a new coach looking for a player to call his own, and Cincy might think it's time to start grooming Carson Palmer's replacement.

Dallas is intriguing in this spot. I'm very anti-Tony Romo as a football player and as a leader. He's won just one playoff game so far and, in my eyes, has been out of excuses for two years. I could see Jerry Jones going blockbuster here -- draft Luck, trade Romo for another top pick and put someone new on that offensive line or secondary. That sounds about Jerry's speed.

Either way, the more spots between the Bills and No. 1, the more teams are in the mix. Minnesota is a prime candidate to try and trade up, as is Miami, San Francisco, Seattle or Oakland.

Some people have asked me: "How 'bout Cam Newton or Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker?" Quick hits: Love Newton and think he might be an amazing NFL player, but I don't see him fitting in Buffalo (see Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch). Mallett would be my next pick, but probably isn't worth top-10 money. And I've got Denny Green syndrome on Locker: "He is who I thought he was!" He might be a steal in the second round, but no way is he a top-10 pick.

Now, to explain the photo at the top of this post ...

While meandering through Target up by Eastview Mall today, I overheard a woman say, "Is that beer pong for kids?" Sure enough... "Kids, pick up today's coolest, most addicting game there is, Shmere Shmong!" No, it's not really called that, but the instructions are to throw a ping pong ball into a cup to score points and win. Aside from the alcohol content, this is pretty much a rip-off of one of the most popular binge-drinking games in the world.

Once again, completely unrelated to anything.

Using Jigzone.com, I took photos of local athletes and turned them into jigsaw puzzles. Take a good look and then click to mix up the pieces. The clock is ticking, so try to put the picture together as quickly as you can. Then when you're finished and ready for a new one, just click on "More Puzzles" to the left of your screen to find the next challenge. See any one you recognize?

Sure, it's not the most productive use of time, but it'll keep you playing for longer than you'd guess.

"... Every body can change!" Those famous words from Rocky Balboa affectively ending the Cold War hang high in the rafters of my own collection of long-retired greats -- right up there with, "Get him a body bag, yeeeaaahhhhhhh!" (Karate Kid) and, "Mr. Blake.... He'll never touch you" (Necessary Roughness).

But in all honesty, today is an historic day for Sylvester Stallone. I just saw on ESPN.com that he will be inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame and Museum. My only question: How did it take six movies to make this happen?!?! Seriously, is there any more iconic of a movie character to any sport?

Rocky is confused for a real boxer as often as Keanu Reeves is confused for a real actor. His statue in the movie was a real statue that actually existed in that spot in Philly for decades as a tribute to the never-say-die message that Stallone's vision invoked. The Rocky theme music is used regularly at moments of inspiration, real or sarcastic. It's become boxing's theme music.

With the possible exception of Muhammed Ali, the Rocky character is likely the most recognizeable boxing figure in history. How many pictures must have Stallone done over the years with fans holding a fist to each of their faces? For as many movies as he's done since then -- even memorable ones like the Rambo series, Demolotion Man, Assassins, Tango and Cash, Over the Top, and Cobra -- Stallone is Rocky. He might even be more Rocky than Stallone.

But it wasn't until Rocky 4 that he crossed over into something different. Rocky was a great movie, a good character, and a questionable trilogy at that point. But when he chopped the Russian Ivan Drago down on Christmas Eve in Moscow, he crossed over into the next realm of greatness. He won over the Russians with his heart and his iron-like face/resolve. And instead of throwing it in their faces, he lifts them up to his level, if just for a moment, and brings peace to a world on the brink of destruction.

"In here, there were two guys killin each other. But I guess that's better than 20 million!"

I say don't stop there. We need more Halls of Fame to put Rocky into. I don't care which ones - he deserves a wing in all of them. Better yet, I'm going to create the Rocky Balboa Hall of Fame, where by people earn the right to be enshrined in his halls. Only candidate I can think of off the top of my head — Chuck Norris.

10:22 a.m. -- As an eternal-optimist of a Bills fan, I'm preditcing a convincing victory today against Minnesota. I might be biased, but I stilll take Buffalo to win this game after another near-win last week. I'll be blogging all through the game, so stop in.

1:42 p.m. -- Just got back with breakfast with Santa with the fam, which ran way later than I thought it would, so I'm playing catch-up on a lot of game. 7-7 right now and Leodis just fumbled the kickoff.
 And now he just committed a pass interference penalty in the end zone. End of the first quarter, and I've got mixed feelings about this whole thing.

SECOND QUARTER

1:47 -- Adrian Peterson just rolled over a Bills lineback and into the end zone to make it 14-7 after one play in the quarter. Not a ton the Bills D could have done in that situation, but shooting yourself in the foot with fumbles and penalties hurts that much more on the road.

Text from a friend: "Seems like the officials are wearing their purple and white panties"

1:52 -- Fitz just got pummeled by Jared Allen. I was thinking earlier today about how well Demetrius Bell has played this season (I wanna say he hadn't let up a sack going into the game). He's taking his lumps today and Fitz will be the one with lumps tomorrow if this pace keeps up.

I was on the phone with my buddy Todd who's on his way over to watch the second half, and he brought up a good point about Favre getting knocked out. Tavaris Jackson's no great quarterback, but he's such a change of pace that the Bills are probably gonna have trouble adjusting to. The guy can run and he knows the offense. The play calling will get simpler and he'll be in the best position to do well today. Don't like it one bit.

1:59 -- A quick three-and-out, a couple big plays and an A.P. rumble later and it's 21-7. Gotta say I'm disappointed with the unnecessary roughness call on Whitner. I mean, you have to enforce it and all that, but Jackson's 6-3, 230 running full speed and if you don't make yourself ready to him, you're the one who's going to get hurt. Not surprised by the call, but would've loved a little help from the refs on that one.

Bills have the ball and it looks like they love the counter plays right now, pulling David Martin to get in front of Jackson to turn the corners. Stll have to get Fitz going.

2:04 -- Just as I type that, Fitz throws up a duck that is picked off by -- of all people -- former Bill Antoine Winfield and brough back inside the 5. Insert sad trombone clip here.

2:06 -- Sidney Rice pulls in a nice catch to make it 28-7, making Tavaris Jackson look like the answer all along in MInni. He pretty much could have taken a nap for the first 10 seconds of that play while the O-line held everybody in check.

Really nice to see the announcers are good enough to mention the Bills' comeback against Cinci a few weeks ago. Great way to keep me thinking there's a chance. Fitz just lunged forward for a 4-yard gain and got planted after he was already down. No flag. Just saying.

Fantasy note: I need two wins today in my two leagues to have a chance at playoff spots. Greg Jennings already has a TD and Eli's having a huge day.

2:12 -- Solomon Wilcots just likened Tavaris Jackson with Roger Staubach. Why isn't anyone who wears the same colors as some great player automatically looks like them? This is a guy that has gotten booed regularly in an NFL career that's as on-and-off as the light inside the refridgerator.

2:24 -- Couple of decent plays and a nice stop by Poz forces a 38-yard field goal to end the half, so it's 31-7 at the half. Not sure the Bills have it in them to make this happen, but it's really going to be a waste of my first GameDay blog if the second half isn't competitive.

HALFTIME: Vikings 31, Bills 7

Text exchange with my buddy Joe A. who lives out in San Diego:
Joe: Oh my, goodnight Favre.
Me: Worst thing that coulda happened. Bills would win if he was in.
Joe: Dude.... That would take you one step further from andrew luck.

Thank you, Joe, for helping realize what's really important.

THIRD QUARTER

2:41 -- Bills go 3-and-out again to start the half after a well-set screen turned into target practice on Fred Jackson, who stretched for the markers a good two yards short. Starting the Punt tally now. 5.

2:45 -- Leodis isn't going to get off the hook, but a nice diving interception just now shows that he has the desire - if not the talent - to keep his job. I picture him keeping the football (a move I think is way overdone in the NFL) and running over to his secondary coach asking if he can put it on the refridgerator. "Look coach, look what I did!"

2:51 -- Nevermind. Fumble. Vikings ball.

Just wondering right now where Chan Gailey gets his windbreaker-style vest. I don't know if he's going to be around long enough to make that thing an icon like the Tressel vest at Ohio State, but I think he's on to something.

Unrelated to anything: I've never seen "How I Met Your Mother" and just can't think it's very good. Somebody give me a reason to watch it that doesn't involve NPH. Also, just saw a commercial for 60 minutes promoting something big coming from Facebook. Somehow that's the lead story over Ben Bernanke coming on the show to talk about the state of the economy. If I could find a Like button, I'd click it.

3:07 -- It's just bad football all around the TV today. The combined scores of the current CBS and FOX games is 59-14, and that's only because the Redskins finally scored their first TD against the Giants. Hope you've got NFL Sunday Ticket.

Sadly, this is going from ugly football to boring football. AP's going to enjoy the bench the rest of the day, so instead Toby Gerhart is going to grind this out three yards at a time. This guy pummeled by Fighting Irish two years ago for Stanford, and apparently he's got it out for me.

"Flex when you're ahead, T.O."

3:13 -- I'm waiting for Solomon Wilcots to bash Tavaris "Roger Staubach Jr." Jackson afer he just tossed up a punt that Whitner just pulled in for the Bils' fourth pick of the day. Really too bad that the Bills can double their season interception total in just three quarters and still be down by 24 points. It's Week 13. There's no good stat in that statement whatsoever. And Wilcots is making me miss Steve Tasker as the color commentator every other play.

FOURTH QUARTER

3:20 -- Jared Allen just strip-sacked Fitz again and before I could finish typing that sentence, Adrian Petersen just blew by all 11 Bills players to the end zone. Officially the worst performance of the season. 38-7 Vikings.

"I'm trying to count how many offensive lineman they've got." Not a great comment to hear when another one of your offensive lineman (Urbick) is being carted off the field. Rookie Ed Wang is now getting his first action of the season.

3:34 -- 3rd-and-goal from the half-yard line and Fitz fumbles the snap from newly-installed center Andy Levitre. I want to say that's his third fumbled snap today from his third different center. I'm no Elias Bureau, but I'm going to say that's probably not happened before. Needless to say, Minnesota recovered and I'm looking for my brown paper bag just in case any one sees that I'm watching this.

If I could get a 48-yard TD pass to Stevie Johnson before this is over, I'll take it as a victory. I need the fantasy points, and I don't think I could take any news worse than the Bills not getting Andrew Luck in April. He's officially my "It Girl" and the Bills should be courting him by piling up losses at this point. I love what Fitz has done this season and I have nothing but respect for him, but Luck's the guy they have to get. He's got size, speed, smarts, and he looks good in No. 12. Worst case scenario is the Bills win 4 games, get the No. 5 pick, and somebody scoops in to take Luck -- someone terrible like Dallas. I'd start sending resumes to all 32 teams inquiring who I should become a fan of.

3:56 -- Cheers to David Nelson for his first TD catch in the NFL. Atleast something meaningful will come out of this game for somebody.

Note: The 3-and-out performance for Brett Favre was apparently his shortest game played in his entire career. Hang your hat on that, but I still think if he played the Bills had a better chance. Something about him getting knocked out early turned into a kind of false hope.

GAME OVER. Vikings 38, Bills 14.