DRM Watch has an interesting article which examines EMI's DRM-free music deal with Apple and now Microsoft.
It's been interesting over the past few days to watch the reaction from different tech sectors to the EMI/Apple and then the EMI/Microsoft deal to make DRM-free music with less compression available to the public. To call the response "mixed" I think describes it well. Basically, the impression I'm getting is that no one, not even within EMI, Apple or Microsoft, really knows how this is going to play out. Bill Rosenblatt, writing for DRM Watch, does a good job of analyzing the possible short-term impact of these deals. So, is this a good move for EMI? Rosenblatt doesn't think so:
As far as EMI is concerned, the deal was shortsighted, risky, and possibly irresponsible to the company's shareholders. EMI is the smallest of the four majors, enjoys no synergies with corporate siblings, and is undergoing financial hard times. This move with Apple was a lunge for near-term revenue, at the quite possible expense of longer term revenue for EMI and the rest of the industry.
The announcement also didn't help EMI's stock price:
Any longer-term revenue effects from the deal are unpredictable. The financial markets concur with this assessment: EMI's stock has edged down slightly in the days since the Apple announcement.
But the deal is very good for Apple:
The short-term effects of this announcement on Apple, as with EMI, are predictable; but unlike EMI, they look positive (Apple's stock was up about 1% on the news). Apple is now well and truly in control of music download economics for Internet distribution. This deal should also be a huge help to Apple in defusing consumer advocacy actions in many European countries.
What about the knock-on effect on iPod sales?
Apple has determined that it no longer needs DRM to sell iPods. It stands to benefit most from any additional unauthorized copying resulting from the lack of DRM. And any additional movement towards DRM-free music will hurt its would-be competitors among device and platform makers, notably Microsoft. In other words, give credit where it is due: Apple has indeed played this scenario smartly.
I think that it'll be interesting to keep an eye on iPod sales over the next 12 to 24 months and see what happens. Initially, there's no way that the EMI deal can have a negative effect on iPod sales. After all, the type of person likely to by DRM-free EMI tunes from iTunes is also likely to have a large DRMed library too, forcing them to remain within the iPod ecosystem. But over time, especially if more and bigger player jump aboard the "DRM-free" wagon, there will be an increasing number of iTunes users who won't be locked into this ecosystem (assuming, of course, that they buy smart and stick to non-DRM stuff) and will be free to pick and choose their next media player from outside the iPod range.
Has EMI given too much power to Apple?
What does EMI get in the longer term? No one really knows. The effect that the lack of DRM will have on content misuse or on revenue is unpredictable. What we do know is that this deal flies in the face of the music industry's view that Apple has too much control over it. That's where the irresponsibility part comes in. If EMI wanted to go DRM-free, it would have been better off in the long run if it did so with an iTunes competitor.
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