Story by
WNBA Finals odds, pick, prediction: Best bets for Dream-Valkyries Game 7
The first WNBA Finals Game 7 ever takes place on Saturday night — a-winner-take-all matchup between the Golden State Valkyries and the Atlanta Dream.
This series has already seen some big swings. After the Valkyries took Game 1, the Dream looked dominant while winning Games 2 and 3, then the Valkyries took control winning Games 4 and 5, only to get soundly beaten by Atlanta in Game 6. This has been a firm reminder that past performance does not properly forecast future results, and that message rings true again for a betting angle heading into Game 7.
Atlanta Dream (-110) at Golden State Valkyries (-110)
The consensus opening price for the Game 7 moneyline showed a slight perceived advantage for the Dream; they were a -115 while the Valkyries were -105. However, that has flipped since Thursday, and now the teams are -110 each way at BetMGM. If we look at market-leading sportsbooks, the Valkyries are all the way out to -119 while the Dream are -102. Understanding this price history, and where current lines are, gives us a general directionality and market perception to play the Valkyries ML -110 at BetMGM.
I agree with this line movement. Despite getting blown out early last game, it was largely due to shooting luck. The Dream opened the game with a high volume of 3-pointers, while making 66% of them. That is unsustainable. The Valkyries crawled back into the game late, which was an encouraging sign for restoring some confidence.
Bet on the Golden State Valkyries to win Game 7 at sportsbooks
Golden State's edge in the second half was quickly getting into its offense and driving the paint to force fouls on the Dream, a team that already has a thin bench and can't afford foul trouble for any of its stars.
Bet: Valkyries ML -110
Player prop
A point of emphasis throughout the season for the Valkyries has been their strength in numbers, and playing a deep rotation with a strong bench. Over the course of a long regular season and physical playoff run, depth is a key advantage. In a Game 7, that is likely to be less of an emphasis for coach Natalie Nakase's game plan. I think taking some ceiling outcomes on Valkyries players, projecting them to get a few extra minutes, could pay off handsomely.
The player I am most targeting is center Kiah Stokes. Stokes has been a borderline MVP candidate because of her defense and rebounding presence. She has been critical in slowing Angel Reese down at times in this series, and offensively she does get some 3-point opportunities when her defender plays underneath on her screen-and-pop actions.
Stokes' ceiling outcome here is a double-double. She has gotten over 30 minutes in half of the games this series, and she has amassed 10+ points and 10+ rebounds in separate games but never combined. If we go back to the last series against the Las Vegas Aces, Stokes played 38 minutes in the final game and recorded a double-double.
At 30-1 odds (a 3.2% chance), this represents an edge close to 20% where the fair odds would be +2480. The upside is worth playing into.
Bet: Kiah Stokes to record double-double (30-1)
I understand some people also like to bet for sheer entertainment and like to parlay some game scripts into long-shot odds. Historically, Game 7s are not as close as the market anticipates, and the winning team tends to dominate and run the opponent off the court. Taking an alternate spread of Valkyries -9.5 would be the starting point for building out a game script-based parlay.
I also think Gabby Williams scoring is going to be prominent here. I anticipate her shooting close to 10 free throws based on her transition offense. The alternate line for Williams to score at least 18 points is a possible add.
Parlay: Golden State -9.5 + Gabby Williams 18+ Points (+450)