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Week 9 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Florida-Georgia and Saturday's other big games
Call it a cherry pick on a week where it suits our narrative, but it sure seemed like line moves took it on the chin more than usual, and almost exclusively, in the highest-profile games of college football's Week 8:
Indiana: Went up to -7.5, didn't cover the close at Michigan
Auburn: Went down to +7, didn't cover vs. LSU
Texas Tech: Went up to -11.5, lost outright at Cincinnati
Oregon: Went up to -10.5, lost outright to Illinois
Iowa: Went up to -7.5, lost outright to Minnesota
BYU: Went up to -7.5, lost outright to UCF
Ole Miss: Went down to +3, didn't cover the close at Texas
With BYU dropping a wild one at Central Florida (not completely unforeseeable given the obvious through-line of what the "spot" means in this emotionally driven sport), market moves are inevitable, but who's to even say what a shake-up even is in college football anymore?
Movers
Texas saved its season with a win over Ole Miss, further complicating everything in the SEC, before many of the jumbled top-half of the conference take Halloween off. After Georgia (+100 to win the conference), which is no lock to make it to Atlanta given the Bulldogs have three more ranked games on their schedule, no one else is shorter than 7-to-1 odds.
In the Big Ten, Indiana exuded something at The Big House that so many of these teams aren't able to after a big game: upset avoidance. Meanwhile, Iowa and USC ejected themselves from the Big Ten conversation, leaving just UCLA (-130) and Northwestern (+600) as the surprise teams looking to make a case for a third playoff team out of the conference we've been told is now the best in the sport.
The big one in the Group of Six was the slobber-knocker we expected between New Mexico and North Dakota State (the under kept us 2-2 in Week 8, 21-17-2 on the season). New Mexico jumped into the driver's seat as the Mountain West's top team, and now hope the other G6 conference leaders continue to drop.
Shakers
In that vein, the upsets started early in Week 8. James Madison got upset by Appalachian State on Thursday, removing the Dukes from the playoff equation as they went from odds-on favorite to 10-to-1 to make it.
Middle Tennessee, Illinois, Southern Miss, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Louisiana-Monroe all deserve a shoutout for winning as underdogs of 3-to-1 on the moneyline.
A week after the Big 12's big day thanks to BYU, the Knights and Bearcats had no problem stinging the top of the league, as both the Cougars and Red Raiders move to plus-money to make the College Football Playoff.
The Rebels' loss didn't just move them to even-money to make the CFP, it dinged Trinidad Chambliss' chances for the Heisman Trophy in the betting market, as he fell to 30-1, while Miami's duo of Darian Mensah (+290) and Malachi Toney (+370) stacked stats in a game the Hurricanes were three-touchdown favorites. The countdown is on, as it's two weeks until they go to South Bend to take on the fourth choice in Heisman betting, CJ Carr (19-1). The winner coming out of that game will be a mover in a market still led by Jeremiah Smith (+120).
Betting the big games for Week 9
This is the space for the big games of the week. While we'll never get a true sample size in a sport that comes down to a bounce or two and the micro-assessment of replay reviews, the season's started to take shape. That said, there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 9.
No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech (-3.5, 54.5)
When Halloween lands on a gameday, the ghost of Michael Crabtree (the concept, not the very-much alive person) permeates through Lubbock on the anniversary of the Red Raiders' biggest win, back in 2007.
Luckily for Arizona, this one is not being played after dark for the Wildcats' second chance at getting noticed on a national level, having only lost at BYU.
Entering Week 9, we have to wonder what remains of preseason priors, because a line of -3.5 suggests these two teams are just about equal on a neutral field, a far cry from a projected 16-point line in favor of Texas Tech before the season.
Let's take a look at each side's EPA/Play:
Arizona: offense: 0.12, defense: -0.18
Texas Tech: offense: 0.08, defense: -0.06
And now their Success Rate on standard downs:
Arizona: offense: 52.2%, defense: 38.2%
Texas Tech: offense: 51.9%, defense: 41.1%
Both metrics give the edge to the Wildcats, and, in looking at their lone common opponent — not apples-to-apples because Arizona played Cincinnati at home — the Wildcats blew out the Bearcats.
Bet on the Arizona Wildcats to cover the spread at sportsbooks
Finally, Arizona went shot-for-shot with BYU in Provo, at a time when the Cougars were at full strength with LJ Martin at tailback, and their continuity from 2025 gave BYU more of an advantage than if they played later in the season.
Bet: Arizona +3.5
Louisiana Tech (-5.5, 57.5) at South Alabama
With Louisiana's upset loss to ULM, we'll make a pronouncement: The winner of this game will represent the Sun Belt West in the conference championship game.
That's enough to make it a big game by our measurements, especially for those holding Louisiana Tech (13-to-1) futures.
These two match up well in offensive metrics, but the quarterback position provides a fork in the road of this handicap.
The Jaguars had their starting QB Bishop Davenport for the first two games of the season, but haven't since, and aren't expected to this week. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech's numbers are somewhat depressed by being without Blake Baker (72.2% completions, 10-1 TD:INT ratio) for two games, but he's back and the Bulldogs offense is at full bore.
Plus, the Bulldogs are also coming in off of back-to-back shutouts (over ULM and Old Dominion), while South Alabama's defensive metrics lag behind considerably.
Bet: Louisiana Tech -5.5
No. 6 Utah (-6.5, 56.5) at Cincinnati
Utah won, and pulled off a "bad-beat" win for Utes backers, in a slugfest against Houston last week, which came with the big national pregame show in town.
The Utes are right in the eye of the "spot" hurricane as they go on the road against an unranked team that's shown it's fully capable of knocking off a conference contender. Utah's last-minute cover of a touchdown spread might dissuade the betting market from downgrading a Utes offense that was almost entirely Devon Dampier on the run, and a defense that leaned on the blitz button.
The Bearcats are coming off their own big win — the upset over Texas Tech — but a 13-point win with 255 rushing yards that was never in doubt after halftime doesn't feel like it was a completely draining experience.
A weird game in Tucson followed by getting dragged into a shootout with West Virginia has kept Cincinnati's market rating down, but if you can manhandle the Red Raiders, you probably deserve a boost — and anything of the sort gets this line closer to Utah -3 than -6.
Bet: Cincinnati +6.5
No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia (-11.5, 56.5)
The nickname has changed, and now the location has too.
The rivalry matchup that used to be called, "the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" in Jacksonville, is being played in Atlanta this time around, due to the ongoing renovations in Duval County. While that's not technically a home game for the Bulldogs, Georgia is certainly familiar with the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, having played at least one game there in every season since 2021.
Both sides had a midseason bye to prepare, but while Florida comes in off an upset win at Texas, Kirby Smart's side has been hearing his angry voice for two weeks after blowing a 14-0 lead at home in a loss to Auburn.
Those two results have tweaked a betting line that we had projected at -12.5 prior to Week 7, as Florida's play level finally found its level after a hot start. However, the postgame win expectancy for the Bulldogs was 96.7% per ESPN's Bill Connelly, and just 16.3% for Florida, suggesting both results were something of a fluke.
Bet: Georgia -11.5
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.