Alok Singh

Part 2: A relatively under discussed trendline in India that has been exploding in last 5-6 years has been B2C cross border e-commerce. These are subscale ecom merchants supplying globally (mainly US) via Amazon, ebay, etsy or even direct! This segment has inflected from <$300m GMV sales 6 years back to $3.5b+ currently. The key 'why now' behind this has been COVID - which forced supplier digitization when offline sales were restricted as well as direct global access via AMZ.   The interesting part is this inflection has happened despite low awareness (<10k active sellers vs 2m+ in India domestic ecommerce) and highly broken support ecosystem for sellers (logistics, payment reconciliation, global selling know-how, taxation, custom clearance). This is reminiscent of where domestic ecommerce was back in 2014 where there were real questions on how large the ecommerce supplier base in india can be (and why companies like shiprocket should exist).   This inflection has mainly been in design-led categories where India has expertise (and already did B2B experts) e.g., home, jewelry, apparel. This has resulted in multiple players (Skillmatics, California Design Den, Miko, Ultrahuman, eShakti) reach $50m+ GMV each in a relatively short time span and most importantly more capital efficiently vs domestic serving peers. Primary reason being high gross margins given US appetite to pay as well as limited need to venture offline which takes away non-linearity in growth to some extent (e.g., most domestic D2C brands are going offline as soon as they hit INR 100 cr GMV)   Feel this trendline has just begun! There were multiple additional tailwinds that are yet to play out. DGFT (export ministry) creating separate ecom export hubs, planning to change taxation/ reconciliation norms as well as digital paper-work to enable faster custom clearance Headwind for China x-border ecom - talks to impose import duty taxes (20-60%) on likes of Temu/ shein. Sudden cancellation of De-minimis loophole (low tax/ minimal scrutiny for items <$800) for China that impacts its ability to offer low prices.   This is the most ideal time to build cross border B2C commerce businesses from india. China has proven that you can build $2B+ brand (Anker) or $30b+ GMV marketplace (Tiktok shop) based on this trendline. Rahul Taneja

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Zomato's food delivery is flat at 9,800 Cr and going out is down 12% in a quarter Quick commerce has grown 20% while the two discretionary spend verticals have slowed Given Zomato's scale likely indicates a wider consumer slowdown in India as discretionary spends tighten

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If Q-comm is your core channel as a D2C brand - odds are your margins are getting squeezed. See it before it’s too late. Back in 2021, If your product showed up on Zepto or Blinkit, you’d screenshot it and send it to your investor group. It was a big deal. It felt like traction. And it still is. It’s a new channel of distribution because just getting listed is an unlock. The logic is simple: be there → get visibility → more orders → more growth. Over the last 18 months, I’ve heard the same thing from multiple founders: Orders are still coming in but the profits? Negative. I don’t blame the platforms. I have massive respect for all of them. They’re doing what they have to - working towards their own profitability. It’s a natural progression. But, this is commonplace. Founders tell me: “I sold ₹2.1 Cr on qcomm last quarter… and ended the month with ₹30L in losses.” “The platform takes 35%. The customer takes the discount and I don’t even get a phone number.” That’s when I realised: Platforms may still drive GMV but they’re eroding contribution margin. And, of course they are. Two have parent companies that have IPO’ed and the 3rd is trying to. They need to protect their own P&Ls. Which means listing fees, steep commissions, visibility charges and discounts every month (because there’s always a festival in India). It’s starting to look like modern trade for the new age. If you’re scaling top-line but bleeding at the unit level, and building low LTV - you’re in trouble. In this new world, most q-comm platforms are have to charge insurgent brands more while FMCG giants get to negotiate 10–15% commissions. Plus, they don’t worry about CAC or customer retention because they already have recall. But, D2C founders pay 30–45% commissions (3x more), spend on ads to stay visible, and still get undercut by someone running a deeper coupon. I think founders will have to step back and ask, “What are we really making per order?” And when early-stage founders ask me — “Should we list on Q-comm?” I say: List. It’s the most powerful channel for sales if you get it right. But, like any channel - it doesn’t work for everyone and everything. Within 3 months take a call. Only if your unit economics are strong enough - continue. Would you list on qcomm today? Have you seen the same? #d2c #fmcg #distribution #qcomm

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Lenskart IPO priced at $8 billion is bigger than the Entire Indian eyewear market size (~$6-7 billion) Let’s dig a little deeper- - Lenskart.com is targeting a valuation of ~$8 billion in its IPO. - For FY25 the company reported revenue of ~₹6,653 crore (~US$755 million) and a net profit of ~₹297 crore. - The Indian eyewear market is large and growing: One estimate suggests that it will grow to US$7-9 billion by 2030. But the math is also a little tricky. With around 2,700 stores, valuation per store comes at around ₹25.9 crore per store and the profit comes down to ₹11 lakh/year. For a profit of just 11 lakhs, valuation looks really high. But there are many arguments in the favour of the IPO - It’s not just about current store-profit per store; it’s about capturing a massive, under-penetrated market with growth ahead. - Lenskart’s omnichannel model, manufacturing integration and brand scale make it a premium choice above any local vendor and will grow rapidly in the next coming years. - If they can grow faster, expand margin, replicate the model internationally the premium may reflect future growth, not just today’s numbers as this is not just about the Indian market. ⁠ The arguments agains the IPO - At ~230× earnings (₹297 crore profit vs ~₹70,000 crore valuation) the multiple is stretched. - The FY25 profit includes one-off or non-operational gains (for instance, accounting adjustments) otherwise it’s still a loss making business even after 17 years of operations. - Most revenue still driven by opening new stores (i.e., more of a roll-out story) rather than existing store leverage. Growth will depend on capex, rentals, competition. My bottom line- - Yes, Lenskart is a category-leader and could benefit from secular trends (urbanisation, vision correction, online + offline retail). - But as a retail investor, you should ask: “At this price, am I buying future growth or overpaying for premium expectation?” - Just because it’s a great brand with scale does not automatically justify the valuation. Numbers and assumptions must align. Lenskart.com #lenskart #ipo

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Big news for India’s logistics and startup ecosystem - Shiprocket, backed by Zomato and Temasek, has just received SEBI approval for its ₹2,500 crore IPO. This marks a new chapter for one of India’s most exciting logistics startups, one that powers thousands of D2C brands, small sellers, and online stores across the country. Shiprocket filed confidentially in May and will now submit its updated draft red herring prospectus soon. With this, it joins the elite list of seven companies — including Meesho — to get the green light for a public listing this year. Half of the total issue will raise fresh capital for growth. And interestingly, big investors like Zomato and Temasek are holding their shares - a strong vote of confidence in Shiprocket’s long-term story. Scale takes time, but when the engine’s built right, takeoff is inevitable.

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What makes India’s startup ecosystem so unique? India isn’t one market. It’s 100, let me explain. A founder in Bangalore scaling a SaaS business for global clients is playing a completely different game from a D2C brand in Jaipur figuring out regional logistics. What works in Mumbai won’t necessarily work in Patna. And yet, companies that master India’s complexity have the potential to build some of the most resilient, scalable businesses in the world, here’s why: 1.  Hyperlocality Swiggy cracked food delivery in India not by copying global models, but by customizing operations for each city. Chennai’s lunch peak? Earlier than Delhi’s. Ahmedabad might be more traditionally vegetarian, but Bangalore orders more vegetarian meals. Dunzo thrives because its riders understand Bangalore’s traffic patterns better than Google Maps. Even Amazon India had to adjust, expanding “I Have Space” pickup points to 28,000+ ‘kirana’ (mom and pop) stores because using existing Indian infrastructure is key for hyperlocal logistics. 2. Cultural & Linguistic Diversity India has 22 official languages, over 1,600 dialects, and 28 states that often feel like different countries. And the tech gap is just as wide: while urban consumers are asking Alexa to reorder organic groceries that are delivered in 10 minutes, rural  users might still travel hours to the nearest city just to restock essentials. One country, many very different user journeys. Marketing campaigns for Mumbai may completely miss the mark in Lucknow. That’s why even global brands like Netflix offer regional pricing and multilingual content, adapting to India’s linguistic complexity- because here, what counts as a 'minority' here can still outsize entire nations. There are over 55 million Gujarati speakers in India alone… that’s nearly the population of Italy. 3. One Country, Many Economies India has world-class venture-backed startups, but it’s also a market where (according to the ILO) 90% of employment is informal and some of these models are profitable right from day one, often by necessity rather than design. What works in high-income metros doesn’t always translate to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, where extreme price sensitivity and trust outweigh brand hype. Take, for instance, one of India’s most interesting fintech paradoxes: Digital transactions via UPI (think Applepay, but localised) crossed the 100 billion mark in 2023, turning India’s metro cities nearly cashless. But in smaller towns, Cash on Delivery (COD) is still king- accounting for over 60% of all e-commerce orders according to a report by the IIMA.Opting out of COD isn’t a UX tweak, it’s a gamble that could mean losing millions of customers. So, is India one big market? Yes and no. Digital infrastructure is creating a more connected economy, but hyperlocal realities still shape business success. For founders, investors, and outsiders trying to build in India: Forget the playbooks. Learn the landscapes. Adapt fast. #InvestInIndia

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AÏZA by Amaani, a new consumer startup from the Middle East focused on beauty and wellness, has raised $3 million in seed funding from Peak XV Partners’s Surge. This marks Surge’s (formerly Sequoia Capital India & SEA) first consumer and seed investment in the MENA region. Shubham Poddar | Rajan Anandan | Ravishankar GV | Kaustubh Mundra | Suraj Laungani | Molly Wagner | Umang Mehrotra 🔗 Read full article link in comment #aiza #amaani #beautybrand #consumerstartup #funding #startupnews #businessupdate

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Agilitas x Virat Kohli partnership is one of the masterstroke deals I have seen in recent times. Virat invests 40 CR in Agilitas for a 1.94% stake, putting Agilitas’s valuation around 2000 CR. 📈 In turn, Agilitas acquires one8world, making Virat a co-founder and shareholder. They now get two very important growth levers: ⬇️ 1. A powerful manufacturing (via Mochiko Shoes - a 600 CR+ footwear brand that Agilitas acquired in 2008 ), 2. India’s biggest athlete — exclusively aligned. Easily becomes a 4000 CR revenue brand in the next 5 years. Footwear + retail scale requires capital — but this partnership compresses customer acquisition, product cycles, and brand-building like few others. Even Virat said in his podcast with Abhishek Ganguly, the co-founder of Agilitas that, “I didn’t want a brand deal… I wanted to build something that outlives me.” And Abhishek said something even beautiful - “An ambition to build from India but be globally relevant.” This isn’t marketing. This is legacy building with shared skin in the game. And that is how startups work - shared ambition with one goal (to make the company big) and food (read stake) in the table for everyone! A company that can be built in the long term with culture, capital, and conviction aligned. This might be the first time in India, where an athlete joins hands with a sport company to re-imagine and build the sport ecosystem of India - truly revolutionalising the game with a clear vision. 🙌

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CityMall Raises $47M Series D to Deepen Reach in Bharat’s Value E-Commerce CityMall, founded by Angad K., Naisheel Verdhan, and Rahul Gill, the grocery-focused platform serving Tier II, III, and IV cities, has secured $47 million in Series D funding led by Accel, with continued backing from existing investors like WaterBridge Ventures, Elevation Capital, Jungle Ventures, and more. Why this is a milestone: Flat valuation, firm conviction: The investment came at a steady valuation, signalling trust in CityMall’s strategy to deliver value, not hype. Targeting value-conscious Bharat: In contrast to quick-commerce players chasing instant gratification in metros, CityMall doubles down on affordability, more thoughtful buying, and convenience with next-day delivery. Unit economics in action: By leveraging private labels and a lean supply chain backed by community-led fulfilment, it keeps costs low and customer loyalty high. Operational traction: Already present across 60+ cities, it’s shown resilient revenue growth and narrowed operational losses, even on the path to break-even. At Startup Veda, this isn't just a funding update; it’s validation for 'go-slow-build-strong' models in India's e-commerce ecosystem. Discussion Starters: In a world fixated on “aarm,” can value-first platforms like CityMall sustainably thrive? Do deep margin focus and community integration make better models than convenience-led e-commerce? Could this signal a pivot from quick commerce to value commerce across Bharat? #Startup #Ecommerce #ValueCommerce #SeriesD #GroceryTech #Startups #IndiaStartups

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Lessons: performance of listed startups At the xto10x IPO academy, we track listed startups - financials, market updates, stock price, peer comparison, analyst coverage and earnings calls. The intent? Understand the patterns behind sustained performance vs. underperformance - defined as movement in the stock price vs. the Nifty 500 over the same timeframe. Of the 30+ companies we track, here are headlines from 8 (data as on 8/4/25) #1 (2021 IPO): significant challenges for the first eight quarters - profitability doubts, acquisition anxiety. But the script flipped in 2023: delivered on guidance, turned the core business profitable and demonstrated sustained improvement in operating metrics. Outperforming by 134% #2 (2024 IPO): listed at a discount to its peer. Latest results show a widening gap with the peer on core metrics - revenue, market share and MTUs, with the CM gap narrowing slightly. Underperforming by 8% #3 (2021 IPO): A SaaS company, did an outstanding acquisition, improving EBITDA margin from 15% to 20% from FY23 to 24, leading to outperformance. Now facing challenges with revenue churn and no subsequent acquisitions (discussed in earnings calls) - underperforming by 35% #4 (2024 IPO): Not just another coworking play — 43% return on capital employed, driven by high utilisation and the managed aggregator model. Analysts now compare it with hotel peers given the ROCE profile. Outperforming by 68% #5 (2021 IPO): Beat 8Q guidance with growth in core business at 23%, new business at 115% and EBITDA margin of 47%. The stock outperformed by 46%. Then came bolder guidance relying heavily on the new business. Growth in the last 2Q is significantly below expectations, the stock is now down 30% from its peak #6 (2021 IPO): Ecomm player, gained 96% on listing day. In 2 years, revenue grew by 30%, while EBITDA margins remained flat (5% to 5.7%). Underperforming by 37% #7 (2022 IPO): Logistics player that delivered meaningful earnings growth from -₹319 Cr to ₹561 Cr, but missed market expectations of Rs. 1325 cr. Underperforming by 98% #8 (2023 IPO): D2C brand that went public with a bold offline expansion plan. But near-expiry stock issues, distributor churn, & retailer resistance to its SKU mix showed challenges in offline. Trading 31% below its IPO price So what are the patterns? At the risk of oversimplication, here’s what we have observed: Outperformers compound earnings & ROCE over a longer timeframe - quality execution translates into strong input metrics which translate into superior financial performance. This is so hard to do. Underperformers don’t have compounding yet - many challenges get in the way, e.g. high expectations (and a high issue price), widening gap with peers, relying on uncertain M&A/ new businesses/ channels to deliver earnings guidance, limited operating leverage. One overall takeaway for founders trying to decide on an IPO? Please test your recipe for compounding before you go public.

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🚨 Lenskart.com’s $10B IPO: Disruption or Delusion? 🚨 👓 The eyewear giant’s blockbuster IPO target has every founder, investor, and enthusiast in India on the edge of their seats. But does the valuation really stack up, or are we caught in another hype cycle? Here’s why you should care: 📉 Growth slowdown • FY25 revenue growth slid to 17% (vs. 30–40% in prior years) • Are we witnessing the end of hyper‑growth, or just a temporary plateau? 💸 Valuation premium • 3–4× pricier than global & Indian eyewear peers on P/S and EV/EBITDA • Thin profit margins and recent founder ( Peyush Bansal ) buybacks at a fraction of the IPO price raise eyebrows 🧐 Red flags & redemption • Critics like Nishant Mittal (Underdog Tales) and Grok’s deep‑dive call out execution risks • Yet, with omnichannel scale, tech‑driven supply chain, and global ambitions, there’s a clear runway to justify $10B—if Lenskart.com can deliver 🚀 Why it matters Investors are weighing: Is this India’s next home‑grown tech export champion, or a cautionary tale of over‑eager valuations? 🔗 Dive into the full analysis: “Lenskart’s $10B Valuation: Between Hype, Fundamentals & Future Growth” in the link below . Let’s unpack the numbers, the narratives, and what comes next! https://lnkd.in/eQ4A-NWM �� Join the conversation What do YOU think? 👍 Disruption in the making 🤔 Or déjà vu of the last hype wave #Lenskart #IPO #Valuation #Startups #Investing #India #GrowthHacking #TechExports #FinanceInsights

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